NYC Republicans looking at 31-year old councilman to unseat De Blasio in '17

[Suburbia]

New York City Councilman Eric Ulrich (R-Queens), who turned 31 on Feb. 13, is seen as the GOP's best hope of unseating Democrat Bill de Blasio in 2017 in what could be one of the most watched mayoral elections in the country. De Blasio is seen as vulnerable due to his poor approval ratings and his handling of previous snowstorms. Ulrich represents a working class area of Queens, Howard Beach, Breezy Point, seen as the white Catholic ethnic area. Can he win the mayoralty? Can he be a star?

http://www.qchron.com/editions/queenswide/mayor-eric-ulrich-he-might-go-for-it/article_ff77ad3b-3061-52c4-bbab-c2c0c6a42b38.html

http://www.rockawave.com/news/2016-02-05/Top_Stories/Ulrich_Mulling_Run_For_Mayor.html

http://nypost.com/2016/02/02/gopers-think-this-30-year-old-councilman-can-unseat-de-blasio/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Ulrich

[Suburbia]

I had such high hopes for de Blasio. But after winning more than 70% of the vote there's nowhere to go but down i guess. I blame human slimeball Pat Lynch for most of de Blasio's troubles.

He can be defeated but not by Herr Ulrich. The Republicans who become Mayor have to have major qualifications, you can't just be any schmuck.

I think another Democrat challenges him to a primary. Queens Councilman Rory Lancman comes to mind.

Lancman would be good. He's a moderate Democrat. He appeals to the Giuliani outerborough white Catholics and conservative Jewish voters in Brooklyn, Manhattan.

[Suburbia]

I'm guessing his ceiling (unless dead bodies are found in deblasios crawlspace) is around 30-35%?

The Giuliani White Catholic coalition could impact the election in 2017.

[Suburbia]

Yea, sorry. We aren't winning this election. I want a moderate Democrat to primary de Blasio

Yup, that's the best bet. I don't see Republicans winning anything of importance in NYC, for a very very long time.

The white Catholic voter in NYC is still important. They reside in Douglaston, Bayside, Queens, etc.

[Suburbia]

I could see Ulrich running a good campaign for Mayor in 2017.

[Suburbia]

I keep reading this as "NYC Republicans looking at 17-year-old to unseat De Blasio in '31."

This is the funniest thing I've ever read on the board. The NYC GOP better start looking at the 2-year-olds with the most potential.

Dude, Republicans could still win in NYC. The Italians and some Irish Giuliani coalition that is still in Glendale, Queens, Howard Beach, Queens, most of Staten Island, etc. could oust De Blasio if he underperforms.

[Suburbia]

If the de blasio investigation has legs it could make a path to victory for a republican plausible if unlikely

Ray Kelly or Eric Ulrich could beat De Blasio if he was to be re-nominated. De Blasio's former boss, David Dinkins, had a primary challenge in 1993 to a conservative Democrat, Roy Innis.

http://www.nytimes.com/1993/05/25/nyregion/innis-campaign-for-mayor-a-quixotic-quest.html

[Suburbia]

The 31-year old Councilman from Howard Beach, Queens is seriously mulling this run. I think he could make inroads. He's pro-choice, and pro-gay marriage (a Moderate Republican), and he is a white conservative outer borough ethnic. He could be the future of the NY GOP.

He'd probably be a better candidate than Joe Lhota, Rudy Giuliani's protege, who no one probably remembers anymore.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/republian-eric-ulrich-mulls-mayoral-run-de-blasio-2017-article-1.2633740

[Suburbia]

Councilman Ulrich is going to be in a reality show to potentially show New Yorkers his potential bid for mayor. If the show goes well, he could potentially do well in a mayoral election. He's youthful, he comes from a conservative area of NYC (Howard Beach), and the NYC Trump supporters are fired up. He could still lose to De Blasio or Quinn or Jeffries in 2017, but he could run for mayor again in 2021 and 2025, and could potentially win, especially if NY is broke or faces high crime.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/04/nyregion/reality-show-would-follow-new-york-city-councilmans-mayoral-dreams.html

[Suburbia]

Ulrich has the best chance, assuming neither Tom Allon nor Raymond Kelly run.

Tom Allon would be good as well. Steve Matteo, a Staten Island City Councilmember, would be good too.

[Suburbia]

Over the last 100 years, folks who have been the Democratic nominee for Mayor have served for only 56 of those years.  If you take out the pre-LaGuardia period, non-Democrats have won the mayoralty more often.

There are some caveats to that.  Vincent Impellieieri, elected as an Independent in 1949, had been a Democratic Primary loser that year.  John Lindsay, a Republican, was re-elected as candidate of the Liberal Party in 1969 and switched to the Democrats in 1971.  Rudy Giuliani won as the candidate of the Republican and Liberal parties and had the support of former Democratic Mayor Ed Koch and many white Democratic regulars.  Michael Bloomberg was elected as a Republican three times, even after switching his registration to Independent, and often (as LaGuardia did) supported Democrats.

This doesn't change the fact that over a recent 20 year period, the REPUBLICAN nominee was elected Mayor of NYC FIVE TIMES IN A ROW, and it begs the question as to what is needed to bring this about.  What does the 1965 Lindsay, 1993 Giuliani, and 2001 Bloomberg candidacies have in common?  Are those conditions present here?  Let's look at this, one by one:

There was a large groundswell of Democratic discontent with the Democratic Mayoral nominee:   This was certainly the case in 1965 and 1993, but the differences were profound.  In 1965, it was the reformers that bolted to Lindsay; regular Democrats, some of them rather conservative, stuck with Comptroller Abe Beame, a reliable but lackluster candidate.  This was the model Lindsay stuck to in his re-election in 1969 as a third party candidate.  In 1993, it was the more regular Democrats who opposed Dinkins' re-election, many of whom openly endorsed Giuliani (who also had the Liberal Party nomination).  This was not so much the case for Bloomberg in 2001, but his Democratic opponent, Pubic Advocate Mark Green, was not considered a strong candidate, was not a favorite of regulars, and the election was held two months after 9/11, the height of the term-limited Giuliani's popularity.

The candidate was of significantly higher stature than the Democrat.  Arguably true in all circumstances.  Giuliani was a crime-busting US Attorney whereas  Dinkins was considered over his head.  Bloomberg was one of the world's richest men who built an incredible business, whereas Green was considered a bit of a dilettante.  Lindsay was the Congressman for the Upper East Side of Manhattan, whereas Beame was a rather anonymous City Comptroller. 

There were special circumstances.  Only Bloomberg really qualifies here.  Bloomberg was not considered the favorite until after 9/11; then, he ran on the new, improved Giuliani Legacy. 

Ulrich may have discontented Democrats he can rely on, but he really doesn't have overwhelming standing as a potential Mayoral candidate.  He's not a somebody in business (e. g. Don Trump or Ivanka Trump) with a following, he's not a guy with a heroic rep (e. g. Giuliani), and he's not a guy who can self-fund.  I see this as a non-starter.  If a guy like Ulrich steps up here, it's probably to try to gain a leg up on higher office (although this will be hard to pull off as a Republican).  I see no reason to believe that this sort of candidate will pull off an upset.  He's too weak and too limited for too many Democrats to get on board with.

What about Council Minority Leader Steve Matteo or Staten Island Borough President James Oddo?