If Obama wins two terms, what's the probability that Biden runs in 2016?

[Mr. Morden]

Most people are suggesting that, even if Obama wins two terms, Biden will be too old to run for president in 2016 (age 73 on Election Day 2016 and age 74 on Inauguration Day 2017).  But, 20 years ago, people might have said that it was unlikely that anyone over 70 would make a serious run at the presidential nomination of either party.  Yet Bob Dole won the GOP nomination in 1996 at age 73 and McCain did so in 2008 at age 72.

So will Biden necessarily be too old to make the run in 2016?  I'm not asking if he'll be able to win the presidency...just asking how likely you think it would be that he would run.

So, here's the question: *If* Obama wins two terms with Biden as his VP, what's the probability that Biden runs for president in 2016?

[Mr. Morden]

I'd be surprised if he did run at age 74. That would be pushing it, imo. I bet 2016 will be like this year, with no incumbent running.

To clarify, he'd be 73 when he was running.  His 74th birthday would be after the election but before the inauguration.  Sounds, pretty old, but Dole ran when he was 73, and life expectancies are getting longer and longer.

[Mr. Morden]

Of course, Biden could retire in 2012 and Obama could pick a new running mate....and s/he could be the standard bearer in 2016.

Lol, as if Biden would want to give up on the vice presidency after one term.  After finally getting a shot in the White House (albeit not the Oval Office itself) I really, really doubt he would quit voluntarily after four years.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm not asking if there might be other strong contenders (I'm not exactly expecting Biden to win by acclamation), or if Biden would necessarily win the nomination.  All I'm asking is if you think Biden would be likely to run.  This has a lot more to do with what you think about Biden than about what you think the rest of the field will look like.  Do you think Biden is the type of politician who would be likely to run for president at age 73 after having served as VP for 8 years?

[Mr. Morden]

I'd be surprised if he did run at age 74. That would be pushing it, imo. I bet 2016 will be like this year, with no incumbent running.

To clarify, he'd be 73 when he was running.  His 74th birthday would be after the election but before the inauguration.  Sounds, pretty old, but Dole ran when he was 73, and life expectancies are getting longer and longer.

     Dole was a sacrificial lamb to Clinton, so you can't really tell anything about how voters will react to advanced age from that. McCain is 72, but if he wins & proves Americans don't care overmuch about age, Biden running in 2016 becomes moot anyway.

I don't think Dole considered himself a sacrificial lamb in mid-1995 when he declared his candidacy.  The question is whether Biden will run, not whether he'll win.  I suppose it's possible that McCain losing 12 years after Dole's loss will dissuade any septugenarians from running in the future, but I doubt it.  Especially if Obama's victory is fairly narrow.  People will say that he *could* have won, if the environment just hadn't been so terrible for the GOP.

[Mr. Morden]

He has to win one in a row, first.

Well duh.  This is obviously a hypothetical.