Current Tradesports numbers

[Mr. Morden]

Wow, the gap between McCain and Allen has really exploded just in the last few weeks.  I think 46% is the highest McCain has ever been.  On the flip side, it doesn't seem like that long ago that Allen was sitting at 25%.

For the Democrats, HRC has been hovering around 45% for a long time now.  No change there.  The biggest movement of late has been Gore getting some distance from Edwards, and firmly establishing his lock on 3rd place.

[Mr. Morden]

Giuliani is rising, and Romney is backsliding a bit, despite the fact that there seems to be a Romney boomlet in the media.  I've heard some pundits suggest that people close to Giuliani think there's now a good chance that he'll run, so that would probably explain his gains.

Tradesports also now has a new category for "winning individual", which I assume is for the winner of the general election.  In that category, McCain is at 24.0, and HRC is at 15.8.  Strangely, they don't list any other candidates for that.

[Mr. Morden]

If there's a McCain selloff because of a poor McCain showing in Iowa, I would expect that whoever wins Iowa would reap the benefits, not necessarily Giuliani.  And I don't think Giuliani would do that well in Iowa.  In fact, I still don't think Giuliani will end up running....though it's *possible*.

[Mr. Morden]

And Bill Clinton said in 1988 that he wouldn't run for president in 1992.  People change their mind.  (Though this would be fairly late for him to change his mind, and I agree that he's overrated on Tradesports....though not as much as Condi Rice, who has about a 0% chance of running.)

[Mr. Morden]

Romney is moving up at the expense of Allen.  Feingold is moving up at the expense of Clinton.

We should also track the "winning individual" odds.  Right now, these are the odds on who's going to go all the way and win the White House:

McCain 23.5
Clinton 19.9
Giuliani 8.5
Edwards 4.7

Strangely, those are the only candidates listed so far.  Why do they list Edwards, but not Warner or Gore, who they list as more likely to win the nomination?

Anyway, if you divide the "winning individual" odds by the odds of that candidate winning their party's nomination, then you should get the probability that the candidate will win the general, *if* they get the nomination (this is assuming none of them will go 3rd party).  For these four candidates, that gives:

McCain 59%
Clinton 48%
Giuliani 53%
Edwards 57%

I think that's too high for Clinton.  I wouldn't give her a 48% chance of winning the general if she's nominated.  I might quibble about the others too, but I don't think they're as far off as her number.

[Mr. Morden]

The most underrated Republican on Tradesports is Huckabee.  There's no way he should be behind both Rice and Gingrich, and no way that Allen is more than 3 times as likely as to win the nomination as he is.  In truth, I think all of the potential candidates with high name recognition are overrated on Tradesports, and those that are relatively unknown nationally are correspondingly underrated.  Clinton, Gore, Edwards, Kerry, Giuliani, Rice, and Gingrich are all rated too high.  McCain should also be somewhat lower, but not by as much as most of the others.

Incidentally, they now have numbers on the chances for going all the way and winning the White House for 8 different candidates.  It breaks down like this:

McCain 23.5%
Clinton 18.0%
Giuliani 13.0%
Gore 10.5%
Warner 8.2%
Romney 8.0%
Edwards 5.5%
Allen 5.0%

Again, I think the well known candidates are all rated too high here (except maybe McCain), while the lesser known candidates are underrated.  In a recent poll in this forum, Warner received the most votes on the question of "which individual is most likely to win the White House", so I assume this means that many of you are now going to buy shares of Warner, as he's a steal at only 8.2% chance of winning. 

You can also divide these probabilities by the Tradesports probabilities of each candidate winning the nomination, to get the probability that the candidate will win the general, *if* they get the nomination.  That gives:

McCain 59%
Clinton 43%
Giuliani 74%
Gore 61%
Warner 48%
Romney 49%
Edwards 69%
Allen 49%

Those are some rather crazy numbers.  Edwards would have a 69% chance of winning the general, but Warner only a 48% chance???

[Mr. Morden]

The most underrated Republican on Tradesports is Huckabee.  There's no way he should be behind both Rice and Gingrich, and no way that Allen is more than 3 times as likely as to win the nomination as he is.

I should have put my money where my mouth was, and bought some Huckabee shares, as I could have made a lot of $.  Huckabee has surged in the last week, though he's still a bit behind Allen.  Allen is still in fourth place (at about 7.5-8.0% chance of winning) for the GOP nomination, despite the fact that many are now saying that his presidential hopes are "finished".  I think that's going way too far.  He still has a *chance* at winning.  It's just much less than it used to be.