Super Tuesday Results Thread

[Mr. Morden]

This thread calls for some old school CNN election music:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw

[Mr. Morden]

Are they going to release all the exit polls combined together or do a state by state release at 5pm on air?

We won't get the toplines from any state until the polls close in that state.  But as for other exit poll info, again, the exit pollsters share their early date with the media at 5pm Eastern, so some time in ~5:05-5:15, we'll get *something*, either demographics, or what % of voters are angry or whatever.  On questions like the latter, they might release Super Tuesday-wide figures rather than breaking it down by state.  For demographics though, they tend to go state by state.  But based on four years ago, these dribble out a bit at a time, and in the 5pm hour will presumably only cover East Coast states with the earliest poll closing times.

[Mr. Morden]

The exit poll apparently includes a question about people's level of concern about the coronavirus:

https://gvwire.com/2020/03/03/fresno-exit-poll-asks-about-presidential-picks-and-coronavirus/

[Mr. Morden]

Early exit poll #s:

https://twitter.com/TheAPJournalist/status/1234963101956689922

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/robynkanner/status/1234964058186670080

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/Meniscus_cree/status/1234964761848111104

https://twitter.com/ManojMate/status/1234964913094721536

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1234964691044241415

https://twitter.com/mcshanemusic/status/1234965464435937280

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/Reporter_Dan/status/1234966270153494529

https://twitter.com/sluggahjells/status/1234966173428613120

https://twitter.com/sluggahjells/status/1234965834113654784

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/politics/super-tuesday-exit-polls/index.html

Black voters made up about a quarter of the electorate in Tuesday's Democratic primaries in both North Carolina and Virginia. That's about on par with the 2016 results in Virginia, and represents a slight drop in the share of black voters in North Carolina compared with 2016.

White voters made up about two-thirds in each state, while Latino voters were roughly 5% in each state.
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The two Super Tuesday states appear significantly more liberal than South Carolina's electorate, according to these preliminary results. A majority of voters in each state described themselves as liberal in the early exit poll. In South Carolina, it was 47%.

North Carolina's Democratic voters were a bit more apt than those in Virginia to describe themselves as conservative: Fewer than 1 in 10 said so in Virginia, while roughly 1 in 8 said so in North Carolina.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/evanmcmurry/status/1234968292504330241

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/exit-polls-2020-super-tuesday-primary/

Early exit polling found about half of Democratic primary voters in Virginia who said Biden is the candidate who would have the best chance of beating President Trump in November, while roughly 2 in 10 said Sanders is best positioned to beat Trump. There were similar patterns in three other Southern states voting today — North Carolina, Oklahoma and Tennessee. In Sanders’s home state of Vermont, he held an edge over Biden as the best candidate to go up against the president, while Democratic voters in two other New England states were more split in their views. In each of these states fewer than 2 in 10 voters named Bloomberg — or Warren — as the best candidate to go against Trump.

[Mr. Morden]

Late deciders in Texas:

https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1234980185541238784

[Mr. Morden]

Fox is spilling more candidate-specific info from Texas:

https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1234986056878968832

[Mr. Morden]

According to the NYT, out of 10 votes counted in Virginia so far, Bloomberg is winning with 33.3%!

He got a fraction of a person's vote?

[Mr. Morden]

Virigina exit poll toplines (estimated from averaging male and female #s):

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/virginia?xid=ec_flip_hz_virginia_d

Biden 47%
Sanders 25%
Bloomberg 11%
Warren 11%

[Mr. Morden]

Vermont exit poll toplines (estimated from averaging male and female #s):

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/vermont?xid=ec_flip_hz_vermont_d

Sanders 57%
Biden 17%
Warren 13%
Bloomberg 9%

[Mr. Morden]

Virginia exit poll by race:

white:
Biden 43%
Sanders 26%
Warren 14%
Bloomberg 12%

black:
Biden 63%
Sanders 18%
Bloomberg 10%
Warren 7%

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders is getting 66% of back voters across the South.

Not sure what a back voter is, but he's going to do much worse than that among black voters.

[Mr. Morden]

North Carolina exit poll toplines (estimated from averaging male and female #s):

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/north-carolina

Biden 44
Sanders 23
Bloomberg 11
Warren 11

[Mr. Morden]

NC exit poll by race:

white:
Biden 36%
Sanders 25%
Warren 14%
Bloomberg 11%

black:
Biden 63%
Sanders 16%
Bloomberg 10%
Warren 5%

[Mr. Morden]

Massachusetts exit poll toplines (estimated from averaging male and female #s):

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/massachusetts

Sanders 31
Biden 29
Warren 25
Bloomberg 9

[Mr. Morden]

Tennessee exit poll toplines (estimated from averaging male and female #s):

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/tennessee

Biden 46
Sanders 24
Bloomberg 12
Warren 11

[Mr. Morden]

Oklahoma exit poll toplines (estimated from averaging male and female #s):

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/oklahoma

Biden 41
Sanders 25
Warren 16
Bloomberg 15

[Mr. Morden]

California exit poll topline estimate (from averaging male and female #s):

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/california

Sanders 39%
Biden 23%
Warren 15%
Bloomberg 11%

[Mr. Morden]

Estimated toplines from the exit polls for all candidates in California:

Sanders 38%
Biden 23%
Warren 15%
Bloomberg 11%
Buttigieg 4%
Klobuchar 4%
Steyer 3%
Gabbard 1%