Predict what the early '24 GOP primary polls will look like (as of 1yr from now) (user search)
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  Predict what the early '24 GOP primary polls will look like (as of 1yr from now) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Predict what the early '24 GOP primary polls will look like (as of 1yr from now)  (Read 520 times)
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
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Posts: 44,066
United States


« on: November 23, 2019, 06:25:22 PM »

One year from now, November 2020, in the aftermath of the 2020 election, regardless of whether Trump is reelected or not, we'll already start to have a couple of super early 2024 primary polls.  What will those polls look like on the GOP side?  Who will be in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.?

Since I doubt prospective candidates like Ron DeSantis or Josh Hawley will be well known beyond their home states by then, I'm assuming that the polls will be dominated by already well known names.  I'd assume that Pence will be in 1st place, but some retreads from 2016 like Cruz and Rubio are also well known enough that they'll probably be included in the poll and getting at least somewhere in the mid- to high-single digits.  Other names that might show up in the polling might be Lindsey Graham, Rand Paul, Nikki Haley, Paul Ryan, or even Mike Pompeo:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=315708.0

Of course, there's also the question of whether any of Trump's children will be included in 2024 polling.  And if Trump loses next year, will Trump himself be included in 2024 polling?  (My guess is yes.)

Also, flashback: Here's an early 2020 primary poll taken as of October 2016:

Morning Consult national poll, conducted Oct. 5-6:

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Politico_MCPostVPToplines-1.pdf
https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Politico_MCPostVPCrosstabs.pdf

If Trump wins this year, who should be the 2020 Dem. nominee?

Warren 28%
Kaine 16%
Booker 9%
Cuomo 8%
"other" 8%
"don't know" 32%

If Clinton wins this year, who should be the 2020 GOP nominee?

Pence 22%
Ryan 13%
Trump 13%
Cruz 12%
Rubio 11%
Cotton 1%
"other" 4%
"don't know" 17%
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Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,066
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2019, 11:57:11 PM »

Pence, Haley, and a bunch of 2016 candidates like Cruz and Rubio will dominate.  Guys like DeSantis, Hawley, Cotton are not well known outside their home states and would do poorly in the beginning.

Uh, that's wrong.

What non-Floridians have any idea who DeSantis is, other than political nerds like us?  And why would that change within the next 12 months or so?
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