The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Mr. Morden]

The NYT has a new story about the Democratic field, with several new tidbits:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/10/us/politics/democrats-2020-president.html

Some bullet points:

-Bullock was in New York this week, post-election, meeting with big $ donors.

-On the phone with one of the victorious candidates this week, Biden was asked about his own plans re: 2020, and “did not sound overly enthused, responding that he was in no rush to have that discussion”.

-Harris is seen by allies as likely to announce “early in next year”, though after her book tour in January (the book comes out on Jan. 8th).

-Warren may conceivably launch before the end of December(!).

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[Mr. Morden]

Swalwell will run.

Here's the relevant quote:

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That's definitely evidence in favor, but it's still just one source.  What does "plans to run" mean here?  He'll announce his candidacy in four months or something?  If so, that's plenty of time for him to change his mind.  Would still put him in the "likely, but not a done deal yet" category.

EDIT: Oh, and the story also notes that Swalwell will be in Iowa this weekend.

He went on Fox and basically said he was running too.

Is this what you're referring to?:

https://video.foxnews.com/v/5859522422001/?#sp=show-clips

Because what he said there is "I'm looking at it", which isn't really new.  Plenty of the other potential candidates say the same thing all the time.  Again, I'd say he's likely, but I wouldn't take this as the last word.

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, while that NYT story says that Warren may very well launch her campaign very early, publicly she says that she has no timeline in mind:

http://www.lowellsun.com/todaysheadlines/ci_32261368/warren-no-timeline-presidential-run-decision

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[Mr. Morden]

Deval Patrick will do an event in South Carolina next week:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/midterm-elections-return-democrats-to-a-debate-over-their-2020-presidential-choice-passion-or-pragmatism/2018/11/10/b1312dce-e44d-11e8-b759-3d88a5ce9e19_story.html?utm_term=.a8a8bba2519a

[Mr. Morden]

Al Sharpton’s group, the National Action Network, is holidng a Legislative and Policy Conference in DC on Tuesday and Wednesday:

https://nationalactionnetwork.net/newnews/schedule-for-nan-and-activists-to-convene-post-midterms/

Among those participating are Klobuchar, Warren, Harris, Swalwell, Sanders, Gillibrand, Booker, and Brown.

In other news, Cuomo gives a non-denial on 2020:

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/416144-ny-governor-non-committal-on-2020-presidential-run-im-focused-on-the

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Inslee on 2020:

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/mixed-midterm-results-for-gov-jay-inslee-as-he-weighs-2020-plans/

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[Mr. Morden]

Gabbard on 2020:

https://www.theweek.in/wire-updates/international/2018/11/12/fgn25-us-gabbard-ld%20presidency.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Sherrod Brown’s wife

https://twitter.com/connieschultz/status/1062009289429209088?s=21

From the article that links to:

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In other news, Politico says Booker, Harris, Hickenlooper, Sanders, and Warren are all looking for staff to man their potential presidential campaigns:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/12/2020-democrats-campaign-staff-983467

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[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand's new book is out this week, so she's on the book tour.  Today, she was on The View:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1AEjCEWHENk

At about the 3:10 mark, she's asked if she'll run for president in 2020, and she says "I'm thinking about it".

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich will be in NH on Thursday:

https://www.concordmonitor.com/On-the-trail-post-midterms-Steinhauser-21419471

[Mr. Morden]

Julián Castro huddles with donors to prepare 2020 bid

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[Mr. Morden]

Booker:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cory-booker-will-take-time-coming-months-consider-2020-bid-222242880.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Bloomberg's decision timeline:

https://apnews.com/0c074c602c474a82aa096e0b755fc413

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[Mr. Morden]

Here's a story about the candidates and South Carolina:

https://www.apnews.com/8dd2dd48c247482a933982a25a46708b

I've already noted Patrick's upcoming SC trip here, but that story says that Booker and Garcetti are also planning to return to SC "in the coming weeks".  Also:

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[Mr. Morden]

Prospective 2020 Democratic candidates are participating in “friend-raisers”….”a small, informal gathering donors host for would-be candidates”, presumably with the intention of sounding out donors in preparation for a national run:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/416814-democrats-huddle-for-2020-friend-raisers

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Who has done it so far?:

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In other news, Merkley talks 2020 here:

https://kobi5.com/news/local-news/2020-senator-or-president-merkley-may-have-to-choose-89846/

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He also said it’s up to the Oregon legislature if they want to follow NJ’s lead and pass a new law to let him run for reelection while he runs for president, but mused that Oregon’s late primary may make that unnecessary, since he could run for president and if he doesn’t finish in the top tier in the early primaries, he’d still have time to drop out and run for reelection instead.  (Of course, Booker could do that too, but that didn’t stop the legislature from acting.)

[Mr. Morden]

O’Rourke has a new post in Medium that might be some kind of cryptic messaging about being inspired to run by Abraham Lincoln:

https://medium.com/@BetoORourke/i-woke-up-after-a-good-nights-sleep-9999308c103e

Bob Casey not ruling out a presidential run:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/15/casey-2020-run-993954

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While in NH, Kasich says all options are on the table, whether as a Republican or an Independent:

https://www.wmur.com/article/all-options-are-on-the-table-john-kasich-wont-rule-out-2020-presidential-run/25132705

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Inslee still pondering:

https://www.king5.com/article/news/politics/governor-jay-inslee-still-mulling-2020-presidential-run/281-615060105

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Avenatti says he’s still thinking about running for president, despite his arrest:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/11/15/michael-avenatti-still-considering-run-president-after-domestic-violence-arrest/2019880002/

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Tom Steyer is meeting with George Soros and other big $ Democratic donors in DC to discuss the post-midterms landscape.  Terry McAuliffe is also making a cameo appearance there:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/democracy-alliance-2020_us_5beda3c8e4b0dbb7ea688290

[Mr. Morden]

Here's your Beto O'Rourke 2020 news for today:

TMZ ran into O'Rourke in DC earlier today, and he wouldn't rule out a presidential run:

http://www.tmz.com/2018/11/16/beto-orourke-presidential-run-2020-challenge-trump/

Here's my transcript of that exchange from the video:

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Castro says his decision on whether to run for president won't be influenced by O'Rourke:

https://www.citynews1130.com/2018/11/16/julian-castro-says-betos-future-no-factor-in-2020-decision/

Harris's team has poached O'Rourke's digital consultant:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/16/politics/shelby-cole-beto-orourke-kamala-harris-2020/index.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Biden has adopted a German Shepherd named Major:

https://katu.com/news/nation-world/former-vice-president-joe-biden-adopts-new-dog



Not sure if that means he's more or less likely to run for president than he was before we had this news. 

[Mr. Morden]

Some info on how Brown got to “maybe”:

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/417213-dems-wonder-if-sherrod-brown-could-be-their-magic-man

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[Mr. Morden]

Swalwell was on Real Time last night.  His possible presidential candidacy was mentioned, but he gave no new details about a decision timeline, or anything like that:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTn8TX2iamU

[Mr. Morden]

Brown says he has no timetable for a decision:

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/417322-sherrod-brown-says-he-has-no-real-timetable-for-deciding-on-2020

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Kasich’s interviewed in NH, and also says he has no timeline for a decision:

https://www.wmur.com/article/closeup-kasich-has-no-timeline-on-when-he-may-make-decision-on-2020-presidential-run/25216214

Flake says someone should run in the primary against Trump, but it probably won’t be him:

http://en.brinkwire.com/news/sen-jeff-flake-douses-speculation-hell-run-for-president-in-2020/

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Bloomberg is donating $1.8 billion to Johns Hopkins University “to provide financial aid to low-and middle-income families”:

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-news-bloomberg-donates-johns-hopkins-20181118-story.html

[Mr. Morden]

The Associated Press has a new story about how several of the likely 2020 Dems are already trying to recruit staff in Iowa.  Booker is mentioned as being the most aggressive so far, but Harris and Patrick are also mentioned….as are Cuomo and Michael Bennet(!):

http://www.startribune.com/2020-democratic-contenders-already-eyeing-top-staff-in-iowa/500891781/

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Sanders on 2020:

https://freebeacon.com/politics/sanders-im-seriously-considering-a-2020-presidential-run/

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Brown talks about his decision:

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/henrygomez/sherrod-brown-president-2020-worker-message

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[Mr. Morden]

Cuomo tells the NY Post that the AP story about him recruiting staff in Iowa isn’t true….that it’s a conspiracy.  Though one “longtime Cuomo supporter” doesn’t buy his denial:

https://nypost.com/2018/11/20/cuomo-insists-hes-not-eyeing-presidential-run-in-2020-despite-report/

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[Mr. Morden]

Deval Patrick asked about 2020:

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/Former-Gov-Deval-Patrick-Addresses-2020-in-1-on-1-500979872.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Two people who've floated the idea of running for president have new books out now, and are on book tours: Ben Sasse and John Kerry.  Sasse was on Colbert last night, w/ video in two parts:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKKJUHd_XlM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1zGtGUtC38

And Kerry was on Seth Meyers last night, with video also in two parts:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbNBpulK0t4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VelTWqXiR6I

At the end of the interview, Kerry is asked if he's going to run for president again, and he says "No matter how you ask this question, I’m going to find a way to duck it."

[Mr. Morden]

New PAC supporting Buttigieg for president:

https://www.indianapolismonthly.com/news-opinion/importantville-buttigieg-pac-youngs-2020-map-and-pence-in-asia/

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Buttigieg is expected to announce whether he's running for reelection as mayor some time after Thanksgiving.  If he's not, then that means he's likely going to run for president:

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