The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Mr. Morden]

Bennet, in New Hampshire, says that he’s weeks, not month, away from making a 2020 decision:

https://www.sentinelsource.com/news/local/mulling-run-sen-michael-bennet-of-colorado-stops-by-jaffrey/article_8730f813-2573-5d5a-91ec-338406a055dd.html

While in South Carolina, de Blasio says he plans to make a 2020 decision “sooner rather than later”:

https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/nyc-mayor-bill-de-blasio-says-he-ll-make-decision/article_2520f70a-429f-11e9-8998-a7e7fac317d2.html

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich on 2020:

https://www.10tv.com/article/kasich-potential-2020-run-i-dont-know-what-im-going-do

"I don't know what I'm going to do. At some point, there's an internal clock for all of us and there are deadlines, but they're not here yet. I'll tell you this though. I'm not in a Hail Mary. I run when I think I can win. So, we assess things just about every week, sometimes every day, and we'll see. I'm not closing anything down, I just don't know."

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/11/us/politics/beto-orourke-2020.html

As the Democratic presidential field takes final shape, Mr. O’Rourke seems inclined to be in this, according to interviews with people who have spoken to him and other top Democrats. He says he has made a decision about whether to run and could announce it as early as this week, unsettling prospective rival campaigns that consider Mr. O’Rourke a credible threat.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden:

https://www.axios.com/joe-biden-2020-presidential-election-imminent-4e9500d1-6873-45b8-9a89-7f1afe2c4121.html

Advisers to former Vice President Biden say it will be apparent within days whether he has decided to activate a presidential campaign that would likely launch by early April.

Between the lines: A Biden insider tells me the "final, final" decision is now "imminent."

Biden, 76, returns this week from a family vacation in the Virgin Islands, where he was expected to make a final decision on whether to make one more big run after more than four decades of public service.

The Smart Brevity from Bidenworld: The former vice president is highly likely — but not absolutely certain — to announce soon (by early April).

We're told the weekend in St. Croix was to run through the toll that a campaign would take on the family, and everyone is on board.

If Biden decides to go for it, he'll start pressing political allies and potential staff members for firm commitments to join him.

That will be the true "tell," advisers say, and will quickly become widely known.

de Blasio world doubts he'll go through with it, and/or thinks it would be a bad idea:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/11/bill-de-blasio-2020-1213856

As de Blasio touted his liberal record in Iowa and South Carolina in recent weeks, nearly three dozen former and current aides, consultants and allies who spoke to POLITICO panned the idea or doubted that the mayor would end up going through with a run for the Democratic nomination. Aside from the few people working on the nascent effort, only two said de Blasio should run.
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It’s a stark contrast to the typical dynamics of a presidential exploration, where aides and allies tend to egg on the potential candidate. Indeed, the strongest advocate for a de Blasio candidacy seems to be de Blasio himself. Gone is the stable of trusted consultants whose advice he once relied on so heavily that he designated them de facto city employees during his first term. In their place are two City Hall aides volunteering their spare time to work on his explorations, and his wife, Chirlane McCray.
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Still, de Blasio has been making moves.

He tapped City Hall communications director Mike Casca, a 2016 Bernie Sanders alum, and Jon Paul Lupo, a top government aide with experience on national Senate races, to work on the effort in their spare time. Last month he traveled to the battleground state of Iowa, trekking through a snowstorm to tout his successes in New York City to small groups of voters.

[Mr. Morden]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/433518-orourke-weighing-possible-iowa-trip-ahead-of-2020-announcement-report

Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) is looking at a possible trip to Iowa as he weighs a 2020 presidential run.

The El Paso Democrat’s team has been in talks with the campaign of Eric Giddens, a Democrat running in a state Senate special election, for O’Rourke to canvass for the candidate this weekend, according to a CNN report.

O’Rourke and his team have also been putting together a video boosting Giddens’s campaign, CNN reported.

A report from The New York Times on Monday also noted that an Iowa visit by O’Rourke could come as early as this week.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/JamesPindell/status/1105205383059120134

[Mr. Morden]

Swalwell sticking to "end of the month":

https://twitter.com/KatyTurNBC/status/1105223422701944837

[Mr. Morden]

O'Rourke will be in Iowa on Saturday:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2019/03/11/iowa-ad-conservative-group-hits-beto-orourke-entitlement-amid-worry-could-flip-texas-2020

O'Rourke will knock on doors in Waterloo and urge Iowans to the polls ahead of a special election next Tuesday for a vacant state Senate seat, Iowa Democratic officials confirmed Monday night.

Biden to headline two events this week that'll serve as a "test drive" for a potential campaign, a speech before the International Association of Firefighters on Tuesday, and then a Delaware Democratic Party dinner in Dover on Saturday:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/heading-big-week-joe-biden-gains-key-encouragement-firefighters-union-n981856

Advisers insist that Biden still hasn’t made [a decision]. He and his wife spent last week on what may well have been a final pre-campaign vacation in St. Croix, ahead of an informal deadline that his team had set as the goal for getting the green light to execute the campaign plan long in the works.

No final decisions have been made about what would be the campaign platform, either. But advisers say the starting point would be what they sketched out as he considered entering the 2016 race.
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On another front, Biden has said he is prepared to reject the support of a super PAC to boost his candidacy — surrendering what would be a potential advantage in the crowded field given his longstanding ties to major Democratic donors. Super PACs are political action committees that can take unlimited contributions from wealthy donors, but they may not coordinate with the campaigns.
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His team has recently impressed upon him the timeline needed to prepare for a campaign launch in early or mid-April. While no campaign jobs have been formally offered, discussions underway for months with potential staff have gone from theoretical opportunities to specific roles, following Biden’s instructions that his campaign team “reflect the country” with diversity in senior roles.

The coming week may be a point of no return for him, as aides recognize that the party’s patience is wearing thin. To the extent advisers identify any potential hurdles he’s still reckoning with, they are parallel: how and when to engage with attacks from the most strident partisan voices in both parties, including Trump.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1105462609212555265

O'Rourke:

https://www.businessinsider.com/beto-orourke-facebook-ads-teasing-decision-on-2020-presidential-race-2019-3

Former Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke of Texas, who has been mulling a 2020 presidential run for months, is running paid advertisements on Facebook alluding to a potential campaign.

O'Rourke, who is trekking to the early primary state of Iowa this week, started running the ads sometime on Wednesday. The ads say that O'Rourke has come to a final decision about his plans for 2020.

"People in communities across the country have been reaching out and asking me if I'm planning on running in 2020," the ad reads. "Amy and I have made a decision on that. Sign up today to be first to know what's next. I'd like for you to be a part of it."

The ads' performance data, according to the Facebook ad archive, show high indexing and engagement in California, a now large and early primary voting state for the 2020 race.

[Mr. Morden]

The Hill says that a "senior Democratic lawmaker" told them that he had a phone convo with Biden, who told the lawmaker that he was running, and asked for an endorsement:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/433659-exclusive-biden-to-run-for-white-house-says-dem-lawmaker

Former Vice President Joe Biden will run for president in 2020, a senior Democratic lawmaker told The Hill on Tuesday, a move that will shake up the crowded Democratic primary field and make him the clear front-runner for his party’s nomination against President Trump.

“I’m giving it a shot,” Biden said matter-of-factly during a phone call with a House Democratic lawmaker within the past week — a conversation the congressman recounted to The Hill and interpreted as a sure sign that Biden will run in 2020.

In the brief phone call, the former vice president asked if he could bounce some campaign strategy ideas off the lawmaker and invited the lawmaker to sit down with him in person in the near future. Biden also said he hoped to have the lawmaker’s support, something the lawmaker did not commit to.

Biden responded that there was no harm if they keep talking, according to the lawmaker who spoke to The Hill on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the phone conversation.

However:

Biden spokesman Bill Russo refuted the idea that the former vice president is absolutely running: “He has not made a final decision. No change.”
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One source familiar with Biden’s thinking says it’s all part of the former vice president’s mission “to check all boxes” before he officially announces he’s running.

“He’s basically in. He’s just running the traps, as he says,” the source said.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/chelseaadelaine/status/1105489509997785088

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/12/politics/beto-orourke-2020-campaign/index.html

Former US Rep. Beto O'Rourke is ready to "push the button" to launch his presidential campaign, with the announcement expected to first come on social media, a source familiar with his plans told CNN.

Aware that the 2020 Democratic primary is quickly taking shape, O'Rourke is set to announce his candidacy this week, rather than launching an exploratory committee.

O'Rourke is in his hometown of El Paso, Texas, this week ahead of his first trip to Iowa on Saturday. On Monday, in a short video recorded outside his house, he wore a University of Northern Iowa cap as he urged students at the school to vote in the Democratic candidate in a state Senate special election.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/GarrettHaake/status/1105628423626637314

If he's leaving for Iowa as early as Thursday, then I wonder if he'll announce as early as tomorrow?  (Or alternatively, in the early hours of Thursday, before getting on a plane for Iowa?)

[Mr. Morden]

Moulton’s trip to South Carolina next week was already mentioned in this thread, but looks like he’ll also be traveling to New Hampshire on Saturday:

https://www.masslive.com/politics/2019/03/us-rep-seth-moulton-to-visit-new-hampshire-south-carolina-amid-2020-speculation.html

In other Moulton news, he’s come out in favor of abolishing both the electoral college and the filibuster:

https://www.masslive.com/politics/2019/03/us-rep-seth-moulton-wants-to-abolish-the-electoral-college-senate-filibuster.html

Meanwhile, Tim Ryan says that Sherrod Brown’s decision not to run for president has made Ryan more likely to do so:

https://radio.wosu.org/post/rep-tim-ryan-considering-joining-2020-presidential-race#stream/0

“I’m looking very, very closely at it,” Ryan said. “When Sherrod Brown decided not to run, I started to look a little closer at it. Because I felt like Sherrod was talking about the issues many of us were concerned about.”

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/13/beto-orourke-iowa-1220465

Beto O’Rourke has begun quietly reaching out to state Democrats in advance of his first trip to Iowa as a presumptive presidential candidate, personally calling high-profile figures in Iowa, including former Gov. Tom Vilsack, according to two sources familiar with his calls.

O’Rourke is expected to arrive in Iowa on Thursday, where he will be assisted by Norm Sterzenbach, a former executive director of the Iowa Democratic Party who recently began organizing O’Rourke’s trip.
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For O’Rourke, Sterzenbach represents a significant acquisition of talent. Starting far later than most other top-tier Democrats, O’Rourke was widely considered to be at a disadvantage in staffing and organization in early primary states.

Sterzenbach is sometimes referred to as “Mr. Caucus” in Iowa for his deep knowledge of caucus math and mechanics. He most recently worked as a consultant to the state party as it prepares to make some of the most significant changes to the caucuses in decades.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1105921161509158912

[Mr. Morden]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/433949-orourke-strongly-signals-hes-entering-dem-primary-in-vanity-fair-interview

Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) strongly signaled that he is preparing to enter the Democratic 2020 presidential primary in a new Vanity Fair interview released Wednesday.

“I want to be in it,” O’Rourke said in an interview for the April magazine cover. “Man, I’m just born to be in it, and want to do everything I humanly can for this country at this moment.”
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"You can probably tell that I want to run,” he told Vanity Fair. “I do. I think I’d be good at it.”

O’Rourke called the current political climate the “fight of our lives, not the fight-of-my-political life kind of crap.”
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The progressive star told Vanity Fair that he’s not “as concerned” anymore about a presidential campaign having a negative impact on his family.

His 10-year-old daughter, Molly, said she wants to live in the White House.

“I only want you to run if you’re gonna win,” his eldest son, 12-year-old Ulysses, said.

[Mr. Morden]

Moulton headed to Iowa on March 29:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/03/13/iowa-caucus-2020-seth-moulton-travel-iowa-he-considers-presidential-run-veterans-university-of-iowa/3155846002/

de Blasio will be in New Hampshire this weekend:

https://www.insidesources.com/bill-de-blasio-bringing-his-toilet-bowl-politics-to-new-hampshire/

He also says that a run for president wouldn't prompt him to resign as mayor:

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ny-pol-deblasio-presidential-run-resign-20190313-story.html

[Mr. Morden]

Ryan reportedly talking about a presidential run with his family, and says decision in “the next few weeks”:

https://businessjournaldaily.com/ryan-presidential-decision-coming-few-weeks/

Appearing on CNN’s “Erin Burnett OutFront” to discuss the college admissions scandal, Ryan, D-13 Ohio, said he was looking “very closely” at a 2020 bid.

“We’re getting there,” he told host Erin Burnett. “I think the next few weeks we’re going to make a decision one way or the other.”

Ryan, who has visited early primary states and is preparing to make several stops in the industrial Midwest next week, is still discussing a potential run with his family and will make a decision in the coming weeks, communications director Michael Zetts affirmed.

Abrams:

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/abrams-says-she-ll-decide-by-april-if-she-ll-run-for-president/929968396

"Are you considering a run for president in 2020?" Elliot asked Abrams.

"Everything is on the table, including a run for the presidency," Abrams responded. 
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Abrams said she’ll make her decision by April if she’ll run for Senate. She said it's the first decision she has to make.

"In part, because, I think it's important that I do run. I need to start working for it, and if i’m not, I've got to leave enough time for whoever is going to stand for this office to have time build their capacity," Abrams said.

That’s somewhat weird phrasing.  Almost suggesting that she’ll first make a binary choice of Senate or not, and then think about other races, including the presidency, after that.

[Mr. Morden]

Abrams met with Biden today:

https://www.apnews.com/0f2e21e505ea4eb8bbcd1b2ded9c2b76

Abrams told the AP that she’s sticking to her previous commitment to announce her Senate plans in early April.

She said she’s had a series of conversations with other current and former elected officials about her options, with a key question being the practical ability of a senator to make a difference. Biden spent 36 years representing Delaware in the Senate before becoming vice president in 2009.

“My objective is to make sure I want to do that job. ... I’d not thought about the Senate before,” she said, an allusion to her still-strong ambition to be governor after already having served as minority leader in the state House.

[Mr. Morden]

Bullock reiterates that while he might run for president, he has no interest in a run for Senate:

https://www.montanafreepress.org/mt-lowdown-podcast-gov-steve-bullock-looks-back-on-his-political-career-discusses-legislative-priorities-and-discusses-2020/

Bullock acknowledged that some in his party have urged him to challenge Daines, but he thinks there are other Democrats who could take that seat. Besides, he says, he doesn’t want that job.   

“I’ve expressed all along [that] I just don’t have an interest in running for U.S. Senate,” Bullock said. “I think that my skill set, and what I’ve done, I just wouldn’t enjoy it, so I’d ruled it out.”

[Mr. Morden]

Bullock headed to NH on March 22-23:

https://www.wmur.com/article/montana-gov-steve-bullock-to-return-to-nh/26777464

[Mr. Morden]

de Blasio asked about 2020 at about the 12:45 mark here:

https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/de-blasio-nyc-would-have-worked-with-amazon-to-resolve-issues-1458682435699

and simply answers “I have not ruled it out.”

Also, there’s a new Tim Ryan profile here:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/03/ohio-democrat-tim-ryan-might-run-president-2020/584782/

[Mr. Morden]

Gillum was on Real Time with Bill Maher last night, and seemed to know the Iowa poll results pretty well:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssSecquxZ0U

[Mr. Morden]

Moulton says he’ll decide on a presidential run in the next 4-6 weeks:

https://www.wmur.com/article/inslee-moulton-and-de-blasio-visit-nh/26845983

Biden:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-17/biden-makes-verbal-slip-as-he-almost-refers-himself-as-candidate?srnd=premium

Former Vice President Joe Biden made a verbal slip on Saturday and almost referred to himself as a presidential candidate as he edges toward entering the race for the 2020 Democratic nomination. 

“I have the most progressive record of anybody running,” he told a room full of family and friends gathered for a Delaware Democratic Party dinner, stopping himself just before he referred to what he might be running for. The home state crowd responded with cheers, and after a few seconds playing up the situation, he added, “anybody who would run.”
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Biden suggested that if he runs, he’ll propose a “new corporate ethic.” He didn’t get into details but said “you’re going to hear a hell of a lot about it from me.”

Abrams talks 2020, including, again, the unusual decision flowchart she’s alluded to before, where she plans to first make a binary choice about running for Senate, then followed by deliberation about a presidential run:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-the-democratic-field-grows-stacey-abrams-weighs-a-presidential-race/2019/03/16/82a77ec8-475c-11e9-aaf8-4512a6fe3439_story.html

“I think that I am a skilled communicator,” she said. “I think I’m a very good thinker. No, I know I’m a good thinker. I know I have policy chops. I have foreign policy experience. . . . I’ve done a great deal of work on a number of issues. But I need to make certain that I am the best person at this moment for that job and that’s what I need to think about.”

Abrams says she is not an impulsive politician. She is methodical in her thinking and her analysis. Running for president has been in the back of her mind for many years, though not a race in 2020. Candidates for president don’t always get to pick their moment. Abrams’s gubernatorial race has provided an unexpected opportunity to consider a White House bid. But time is pressing in on her.
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Abrams has been pushed hard by Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) and many of his colleagues to challenge incumbent Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) next year. If she isn’t going to do that, she knows she owes it to her party to make that known soon. She said she expects to decide about a Senate campaign by early April. If the answer to that is no, she will then turn immediately to the question of running for president.