The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Mr. Morden]

Tomorrow's President's Day, so I guess there's some chance that someone uses the symbolism to announce (at least an exploratory committee).  Probably won't happen, but it's a possibility.  Could be Sanders.  Otherwise, I'm actually wondering if Swalwell might pull the trigger as early as tomorrow.  Not sure he's ready yet, but he's been talking recently as if it's more imminent.  And he's in Iowa right now, where he was born.  Maybe he takes the opportunity to announce there.  If not Sanders or Swalwell, then I don't know who else might announce as early as tomorrow, if anyone.  Inslee?

If no one announces on President's Day, then I guess there's also Washington's Birthday later in the week.

[Mr. Morden]

Tomorrow's President's Day, so I guess there's some chance that someone uses the symbolism to announce (at least an exploratory committee).  Probably won't happen, but it's a possibility.  Could be Sanders.  Otherwise, I'm actually wondering if Swalwell might pull the trigger as early as tomorrow.  Not sure he's ready yet, but he's been talking recently as if it's more imminent.  And he's in Iowa right now, where he was born.  Maybe he takes the opportunity to announce there.  If not Sanders or Swalwell, then I don't know who else might announce as early as tomorrow, if anyone.  Inslee?

If no one announces on President's Day, then I guess there's also Washington's Birthday later in the week.

Bloomberg and O'Rourke are the other candidates who have said they will decide this month, although I tend to think Bloomberg is waiting for Biden to decide.  All three are at least somewhat plausible for surprise annoucements on President's Day. 

The thing is, for the more prominent candidates we often tend to get some sort of signal before the announcement that they've decided to do it.  And that seems to have happened now with Sanders, now that he's supposedly recorded that video.  But the latest behind-the-scenes from Bloomberg and O'Rourke suggested that they legitimately haven't decided yet.

OTOH, candidates like Swalwell fly under the radar enough that they could announce with no warning at all.

[Mr. Morden]

Hickenlooper's going back to Iowa on Feb. 23rd:

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/02/14/colorado-political-newsletter-22/

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.wmur.com/article/key-bernie-sanders-supporter-says-presidential-announcement-coming-tuesday/26398867

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[Mr. Morden]

Here's a roundup of the Sanders chatter right now:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-19/bernie-sanders-presidential-speculation-grows-ahead-of-interview

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[Mr. Morden]

I thought Inslee was already running.

No, he isn't.  What he's doing is the same as what most of the other as-yet-undeclared candidates are doing (e.g., Bullock, Hickenlooper, McAuliffe, etc.): Using his PAC as a pseudo-exploratory committee, in that it funds his trips to Iowa and New Hampshire, and also pays some political staff who he'll presumably "promote" to work on his actual presidential campaign when/if he ever launches one.  Most of the candidates already in the race were doing the same thing up until the day they launched their campaigns, or formed an exploratory committee.  As were prospective candidates who ultimately opted not to run, like O'Malley.

However, Inslee made some offhand comment a month or so ago that he's "exploring a race for president", and I guess that prompted Wikipedia to briefly list him as having an exploratory committee, because they misunderstood.  But he doesn't have one.  He just has a PAC, like most of the others who aren't yet legally in the race yet still making early primary state visits and the like.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/ericbradner/status/1097959397609955333

[Mr. Morden]

Hogan says he’s undecided on whether to run in 2020, but warns that Trump is a weak GE candidates for the party to put up in 2020:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/larry-hogan-says-trump-looks-pretty-weak-for-2020-general-election/

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Bloomberg’s political team is talking to recipients of $ from his philanthropic network to ask who would support his presidential run, should he decide to go ahead:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/19/michael-bloomberg-network-2020-1173605

Swalwell:

https://dailyiowan.com/2019/02/18/iowa-native-likely-to-announce-2020-bid/

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[Mr. Morden]

O’Rourke says he still hopes to decide by the end of the month, but isn’t ruling out the possibility of taking longer:

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/02/19/beto-orourke-keeps-suspense-days-until-anticipated-2020-decision/

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Hogan:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/larry-hogan-maryland-governor-isnt-ruling-out-primary-challenge-to-trump/

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And he’ll be in Iowa in a couple of weeks:

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[Mr. Morden]

Tim Ryan, in New Hampshire, says he's "getting close" to making his decision about whether to run for president or not:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ryan-in-nh-as-he-decides-on-2020-run-says-democrats-hostile-business

[Mr. Morden]

NBC's latest on Biden: All indications inside Biden-world indicate that he's leaning towards a run, though not looking forward to the prospect of political attacks on his family, which gives him some hesitation.  Latest moving target for a decision is mid-March, and then (assuming the answer is yes) could take a week a week or two after that before a public announcement, which would mean end of March or beginning of April:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/biden-gets-closer-white-house-bid-serious-concerns-remain-n973861

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[Mr. Morden]

O'Rourke:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beto-orourke-says-hes-open-to-being-a-vice-presidential-candidate-in-2020-2019-02-20

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[Mr. Morden]

Hogan says he expects to travel to New Hampshire in the spring, and goes after the RNC for trying to prevent a competitive primary:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/21/larry-hogan-2020-trump-1179635

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Obama’s political organization is merging with Eric Holder’s National Redistricting Action Fund, but Holder says that this move doesn’t have anything to do with his deliberations about whether to run for president, and that he’s still undecided on said run:

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/430845-obama-political-arm-to-merge-with-holder-run-group

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Inslee allies have created a new Super PAC that’ll presumably back him if he ends up running for prez:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/21/jay-inslee-pac-2020-1178721

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[Mr. Morden]

Btw, I'm also wondering if the Mueller Report is going to end up messing with some of the remaining 2020 Dems' announcement plans.  If it drops / is leaked or whatever next week, then isn't it going to completely consume the political news cycle for a while?  Bloomberg or O'Rourke or anyone else thinking about 2020 announcements might have to think about planning around it.

[Mr. Morden]

de Blasio will be in Iowa on both Saturday and Sunday this weekend:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/02/21/election-20202-new-york-city-mayor-de-blasio-heads-iowa-amid-2020-speculation-caucus-president/2943317002/

Tim Ryan says he won't run unless he thinks he can win:

http://www.vindy.com/news/2019/feb/22/valley-rep-ryan-faces-long-odds-if-he-de/

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However, he also says that should he run, he'll (at least in the primary phase) file to run for both the presidential race and reelection for his House seat, so that he has a backup plan if the presidency doesn't work out.

[Mr. Morden]

However, he also says that should he run, he'll (at least in the primary phase) file to run for both the presidential race and reelection for his House seat, so that he has a backup plan if the presidency doesn't work out.

Can he legally do this? I thought you couldn't run for both the House and higher office at the same time if you're already a member of the House

It's determined by state law, and every state is different.

However, he also says that should he run, he'll (at least in the primary phase) file to run for both the presidential race and reelection for his House seat, so that he has a backup plan if the presidency doesn't work out.

Can he legally do this? I thought you couldn't run for both the House and higher office at the same time if you're already a member of the House, but I also can't remember where I "learned" that, and can't find a source at the moment. Is this just discouraged? Is it just a matter of state law?

(I know if you were to win the higher office, you have to resign your house seat, which triggers a special election under Article I, Section 2 of the Constitution)

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/can-you-run-for-congress-and-president-depends-on-where

found this. appears that california is a question mark if he can, I suppose his campaign thinks he can.

Ryan represents a district in Ohio, not California.

[Mr. Morden]

Hickenlooper hires an Iowa director:

https://kdvr.com/2019/02/22/hickenlooper-hires-iowa-organizer-as-he-considers-2020-bid/

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Brown’s early state tour takes him to Nevada tomorrow:

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/sherrod-brown-coming-to-las-vegas-amid-weighing-2020-bid-1596979/

Dispatch from Bennet’s visit to Iowa here:

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/02/21/michael-bennet-iowa-2020-presidential-race/

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[Mr. Morden]

All of this shows that the race is not getting interesting until September/October, because there's enough time for important candidates to jump in until then, without missing anything (ballots are only printed in November for the early primary states and organisation takes no more than a couple months in those small states with the right plan).

So, who cares if there are debates in June or July already ? Everyone's on vacation anyway.

Someone like Biden can afford to delay, and still run a serious campaign.  However, if you're someone who's less well known, like a Tim Ryan, or even a Senator like Bennet or Merkley, then delaying too long risks getting you McCottered out of the race.  Thaddeus McCotter ran for prez in the 2012 cycle, waiting until the summer of 2011 to jump in, which was several months after everyone else had.  By the time he entered the media didn't seem to have any interest in covering a brand new 3rd tier candidate and he got ignored, not even being included in many polls.  I feel like if McCotter had entered earlier, he would have at least had a shot at being invited to early debates.  His campaign still probably wouldn't have gone anywhere, but he would have at least had a brief moment of national exposure in which he could make his case, and let the chips fall where they may.

That's why Ryan, Bennet, Moulton, etc. should all just decide right now.  They've got a shot at being in the first couple of debates if they declare right now, but possibly not if they wait much longer.

[Mr. Morden]

All of this shows that the race is not getting interesting until September/October, because there's enough time for important candidates to jump in until then, without missing anything (ballots are only printed in November for the early primary states and organisation takes no more than a couple months in those small states with the right plan).

So, who cares if there are debates in June or July already ? Everyone's on vacation anyway.

Someone like Biden can afford to delay, and still run a serious campaign.  However, if you're someone who's less well known, like a Tim Ryan, or even a Senator like Bennet or Merkley, then delaying too long risks getting you McCottered out of the race.  Thaddeus McCotter ran for prez in the 2012 cycle, waiting until the summer of 2011 to jump in, which was several months after everyone else had.  By the time he entered the media didn't seem to have any interest in covering a brand new 3rd tier candidate and he got ignored, not even being included in many polls.  I feel like if McCotter had entered earlier, he would have at least had a shot at being invited to early debates.  His campaign still probably wouldn't have gone anywhere, but he would have at least had a brief moment of national exposure in which he could make his case, and let the chips fall where they may.

That's why Ryan, Bennet, Moulton, etc. should all just decide right now.  They've got a shot at being in the first couple of debates if they declare right now, but possibly not if they wait much longer.

This doesn't seem true in recent history, although I have to thank you for reminding me of Thaddeus McCotter.

The Republican Party showed an appetite for additional candidates for 2012 throughout the preceding summer, but when prospective candidates like Chris Christie chose not to run political journalists blamed his demurral on the organizational challenge of entering the campaign so late. We've seen plenty of top-tier candidacies scuttled by later entries in recent campaigns, as with Rick Perry, Fred Thompson, and Wes Clark.

The most recent example of this might even be Biden himself, who by many accounts already regretted his failure to prepare a 2016 campaign by fall of 2015, at which point he stayed out only because getting in wasn't really an option.

My read of things is that even a candidate with Biden's standing in the party needs to prepare more thoroughly than there's evidence of him have done so far. It's nearly spring and all that he's doing is making phone calls and non-committal public comments. I can't think of any recent candidate who has fielded a successful campaign with so little preparation at this point in the cycle.

Well, there's also the fact that usually the latest entries into the race are the candidates who are the least interested in running.  Fred Thompson and Rick Perry didn't seem all that interested in running for president up until their inner circles convinced them that there was an opening for them.  Thompson in particular then showed an unusual level of ambivalence towards campaigning for a presidential candidate, once he actually entered the race.  Maybe if they had been more motivated to run in the first place, their campaigns would have gone better.  So I'm not sure how to separate "organizational problems from getting in late" from "motivational" type problems.

[Mr. Morden]

Agreed that Biden's ambivalence seems to be real.

In other news...

Hickenlooper says Schumer has asked him to consider a Senate run, but the Hick man has no interest:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/23/john-hickenlooper-2020-senate-1182424

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[Mr. Morden]

Inslee will be on Face the Nation tomorrow morning:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sunday-blunt-markey-inslee-lujan-grisham-kinzinger/

It was on Jan. 22nd that Inslee first said that he'll decide on 2020 in "weeks, not months":

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303677.msg6637042#msg6637042

so maybe he'll give us an update on his timeline.

[Mr. Morden]

de Blasio in Iowa:

https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/local/nyc-mayor-de-blasio-visiting-sioux-city-bar-advocates-progressivism/article_ab2ed190-2dce-5432-8630-dd9eb7c2906b.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Bennet says he doesn't have a timetable for when he's going to decide whether to run or not:

https://siouxlandnews.com/news/local/vote-2020-de-blasio-hickenlooper-among-potential-candidates-visiting-iowa-saturday

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1099708732290854912

[Mr. Morden]

At the very end of this interview:

https://www.wmur.com/article/closeup-tim-ryan-eyes-moderate-lane-in-2020-presidential-contest/26496578

Tim Ryan says he anticipates that he'll make his decision in "the next month or two".