Avenatti

[Mr. Morden]

Here's an excerpt from his speech in Iowa:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zz7gCALneO8

He says Trump plays dirty and that you need to "fight fire with fire":

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Looks like he'll try to distinguish himself among the Dem. field by arguing that the Democratic Party needs to be more Trump-like in its tactics.

[Mr. Morden]

Michael Avenatti obviously shouldn't be president, but don't immediately write off his candidacy. The guy is going to be a total clown at the primary debates if he runs and will get a lot of attention disrupting them when everyone else is playing safe. Also, cable news loves giving Michael Avenatti multiple twenty minute interviews a day, and that's a lot of free media exposure.

One thing that I think many pundits aren't really appreciating is the fact that primary debate stage space is limited, and it's far from clear who is actually going to qualify for the debate stage, since the vast majority of prospective candidates are completely unknown to the average voter, and so will start out polling at 0 or 1%.  This is actually pretty different from the GOP race of 2016, where there were a bunch of candidates running who already had decent national name ID even if they hadn't run for prez before, including Cruz, Rubio, Christie, etc.  There just aren't too many 2020 Dems in that category.

So the problem that might come up for the Dems is that a few "clown car" type candidates could end up following Trump's example by getting a bunch of media attention for the "wrong reasons".  That is, they say a bunch of outrageous things, and it generates media coverage, which in itself could give them higher poll #s, since those will be the candidates who voters are hearing about.

I'm not suggesting that someone like Avenatti is going to come anywhere close to winning the nomination.  But could he end up driving enough media coverage to get something like 3% in the polls?  Sure.  And that could be enough to be one of the ~10 or so candidates on the main debate stage.  Which means that he could take spot that would otherwise have gone to one of the more serious (but less "exciting") candidates, like Bullock or Hickenlooper or Klobuchar or Murphy or whoever.

[Mr. Morden]

He was on ABC's "This Week" this morning and was asked about policy:

http://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/401440-avenatti-on-2020-campaign-the-truth-is-my-policy-issue

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[Mr. Morden]

Avenatti takes an unusual tack by saying that Dems shouldn't pick the person who'd make the best president.  They should only focus on electability:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/avenatti-s-swagger-stirs-iowa-democrats-n900486

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[Mr. Morden]

The notion that Trump’s election means that candidates with no government experience will win and/or will be popular among the Democratic electorate really has no substantiation at this point, and if anything I think that a majority of the Democratic base will more highly value experience and competence following 2016. Have some Democrats expressed support for a “fight fire with fire” strategy? Yes, but I don’t think nearly enough primary voters would actually vote for someone like Avenatti.

He won't be the nominee, I agree with that.  What I think might be something for the Dems to consider though is the possibility that "clown car" type candidates like Avenatti end up stealing enough media oxygen in the primary race that some of the more "serious" candidates don't have as much chance to be heard.  Thus, some candidates might get winnowed out early who wouldn't have been if candidates like Avenatti weren't in the race.

[Mr. Morden]

Avenatti released a two page document describing his positions on the issues:

https://twitter.com/MichaelAvenatti/status/1029385486958305280/photo/1

[Mr. Morden]

Delaney tweeted what seemed to be a complaint about the media's fixation on Avenatti, and Avenatti responded by saying that any candidate who whines about other candidates getting too much media coverage "should be immediately eliminated":

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/18/michael-avenatti-john-delaney-democrats-iowa-2020

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[Mr. Morden]

Avenatti says the Dems need to push for adding two more seats to the Supreme Court:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/405098-avenatti-2020-dem-presidential-candidate-must-demand-the

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[Mr. Morden]

Avenatti wrote in a NYT op/ed that "there are many indications" that there's enough evidence to support indicting Trump, and that if so, an indictment should be brought while he's POTUS, even if no impeachment takes place:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/13/opinion/michael-avenatti-trump-indictment-stormy-daniels.html

[Mr. Morden]

Avenatti says that maybe there are other Democratic candidates who would make a better president than him, but he'd be the best at beating Trump:

https://www.radio.com/blogs/michael-avenatti-2020-election-i-would-beat-trump

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[Mr. Morden]

He disabled his Twitter, and the rumor on Twitter is that he was duped by 4chan trolls who had someone posing as a Kavanaugh victim(!).  Avenatti himself denies that though:

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1044679422077554689

Avenatti to run for president in 2020 has dropped sharply on PredictIt.  Before today, they had him at 60% chance of running.  Now have him down to 37% chance.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1044696307754037250

[Mr. Morden]

Avenatti says he shut down his Twitter because of threats:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/25/michael-avenatii-kavanaugh-accusations-4chan-841348

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[Mr. Morden]

Senate Democrats are mad at Avenatti for his role on the Kavanaugh issue, and he takes a swing back at them:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/06/politics/democrats-avenatti-swetnick-accusation/index.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Avenatti dings Booker over Booker's "I have nothing personal against the president" argumentation:

https://twitter.com/MichaelAvenatti/status/1049062028533542913

[Mr. Morden]

Avenatti proposes an MMA fight against Trump Jr. for charity(!):

https://twitter.com/MichaelAvenatti/status/1049744796099596288

[Mr. Morden]

Avenatti is "winning the Twitter primary":

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/michael-avenatti-is-democratic-king-of-twitter-as-2020-looms

[Mr. Morden]

Avenatti under fire for fundraising practices:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/political-money-grubbers-flock-to-texas-to-cash-in-on-beto-gold-rush?ref=scroll

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[Mr. Morden]

Avenatti ordered to pay $5 million he owes.  Plus, his law firm is being evicted from its offices for failing to pay rent:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-avenatti-eviction-20181022-story.html

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[Mr. Morden]

New Avenatti profile here, with some fun anecdotes like this one:

http://time.com/5434317/michael-avenatti/

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[Mr. Morden]

Avenatti says he's investigating an alleged assault committed by Tucker Carlson "and/or members of his inner circle":

https://twitter.com/MichaelAvenatti/status/1061308943186714625

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/10/michael-avenatti-tucker-carlson-bar-incident-982944

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