UNH-NH Democratic Primary Poll: Sanders 31%, Biden 24%, Warren 13%

[Mr. Morden]

Assuming that the 2020 field has ~20 candidates, and the networks once again try to limit debate participation to just the top ~10 candidates in the polls, I do wonder if O'Malley can actually just coast on his minimal name recognition that he developed from his 2016 run to qualify for the early debates.  I mean, is a Tim Ryan or a Chris Murphy really going to manage to be able to boost their name recognition high enough to manage 3% in the polls by August 2019?  Maybe, but probably not if there are 20 other candidates running.

[Mr. Morden]

They also polled the Republican primary:

Trump 47%
Someone Else 23%
[don’t know yet] 30%

Here’s what it was for Obama 8 years ago:

Obama 64%
Someone Else 5%
[don’t know yet] 30%

And here are the crosstabs on the Dem. primary matchup:

Democrats: Sanders +9
Independents: Sanders +9
liberal: Sanders +9
moderate: Sanders +6
conservative: Biden +11
age 18-34: Sanders +6
age 35-49: Sanders +7
age 50-64: Sanders +15
age 65+: Warren +3 (over Biden)
men: Sanders +8
women: Sanders +7
1st CD: Sanders +13
2nd CD: Biden/Sanders tie

Also, Warren has a big gender gap.  She’s at 6% among men and 18% among women.  She also does much better among olds than youngs, in an inversion of the support for Sanders.  She’s at 27% among those over 65, and only 12% among those under 35.

On the Republican side, you have….

Republicans:
Trump 51%
someone else 19%

Independents voting Republican:
someone else 35%
Trump 30%

Also…

Age 18-34:
someone else 67%
Trump 15%

Age 65+:
Trump 69%
someone else 20%