What's the probability that the 2024 GOP nominee is female or a racial minority?

[Mr. Morden]

What’s the probability that the 2024 Republican nominee for president is either a woman or a racial minority (or both)?  And by “racial minority”, let’s include Hispanics.  So yes, Cruz and Rubio would count as “minority”.

Secondary question: If the 2024 GOP presidential nominee is a white male, what's the probability that he picks a woman or racial minority as his running mate?

[Mr. Morden]

I still don't think the Republican Party will be ready for a woman to lead their ticket, and in any case, Haley is the only realistic female Republican nominee I can think of. No Republican female Governors or Senators stand out and most are pretty old.

Joni Ernst spoke at both CPAC and the Faith & Freedom conference last year, then met with the New Hampshire delegation at the RNC.  She also did an event in New Hampshire just a few weeks before the election.  So I'd say she was laying the groundwork for 2020 back when it looked like Hillary Clinton would be the incumbent that year.  Now that Trump is the incumbent in 2020, I suspect she'll most likely run in 2024.

That said, she doesn't seem like a very compelling candidate, so I'm not expecting her to win the nomination.