Someone should do a 2020 Google Consumer Survey poll (user search)
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  Someone should do a 2020 Google Consumer Survey poll (search mode)
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Author Topic: Someone should do a 2020 Google Consumer Survey poll  (Read 5474 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: January 25, 2017, 08:55:25 PM »

Like the ones here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=248866.0

Don't suppose anyone has $50 to burn?  The long wait for more 2020 presidential polls is annoying.  Not like four years ago, when PPP was giving us a new 2016 poll every week or two.
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Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,066
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« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2017, 09:30:59 AM »

I'll do one if someone can help me with the design.

You should talk to cinyc, since he's the guru of these things:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=248866.msg5328339#msg5328339
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Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,066
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« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2017, 12:34:50 PM »

Do you know how meaningless a poll 4 years out from an election is?

Of course it has no predictive power on what's going to happen in November 2020.  Yet, many 2020 polls will be conducted in the next few years, and they'll help set the narrative, and may even impact who ends up running.  E.g., if Trump has terrible job approval ratings but is still ~even in hypothetical general election matchups with Dems, that'll affect the coverage.  If Biden and Sanders lead Trump by double digits while Booker and Warren trail him (whether just because of name recognition or because of real differences in popularity) that'll add fuel to any "Draft Biden" or "Draft Sanders" efforts, and cause some in the media to talk about how the Dems need Biden or Sanders to run.

So I'm curious as to what these polls are going to look like, and am disappointed that we're not getting them yet.  Like I said, last time around, we were already starting to get polls by this point.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2017, 05:58:35 PM »

I have started a 500 person National Democratic Primary poll.

Who did you include as candidates?
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Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,066
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« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2017, 11:16:01 PM »

Detailed crosstabs are obviously not too useful for a sample like that, but is there anything that jumps out at you re: demographic differences between those who picked Warren and those who picked someone else?
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Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,066
United States


« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2017, 11:05:47 AM »

So there are the results of my survey:

509 responses

Bernie Sanders 25.1
Elizabeth Warren 16.1
Kirsten Gillibrand 5.3
Steve Bullock 4.1
Amy Klobuchar 3.9
Tammy Duckworth 3.8
Kamala Harris 3.3
John Hickenlooper 3.2
Maggie Hassan 1.2
Other 40.8

Was there an initial question to ask if they would vote in the Democratic primary, or was this poll question for everyone?  If the latter, then I'd assume that "other" would be mostly Republicans.
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