Trump Cabinet confirmation hearings **live commentary thread**

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, Paul wrote an op/ed explaining his vote against Pompeo:

http://rare.us/story/rand-paul-why-i-voted-against-the-new-cia-director/

[Mr. Morden]

Senate currently debating Tillerson, and is supposed to vote on a motion to proceed to the vote within minutes, though I'm unclear if there would still then be a separate vote for the nomination itself later in the week.

Chao is supposed to be voted on tomorrow, and I guess a slew of others (including, I think, Sessions, Price, DeVos, and Perry) are to be voted on in committee tomorrow, but not yet on the Senate floor.

[Mr. Morden]

The motion to proceed to a vote on Tillerson's nomination is currently ahead 51-43, and that's good enough for it to pass.  A few more votes to count before it's over, but it's cleared the 50 vote threshold it needs already.

[Mr. Morden]

It sounded like Heitkamp, Warner, and Angus King all voted in favor, along with all the Republicans, but don't quote me on that because I might have misheard one or more of those.  I assume Manchin has/will vote in favor as well, though I didn't hear his vote.  Maybe he's one of the people yet to vote.

UPDATE: Manchin voted in favor.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/SarahMMimms/status/826450051434176515

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[Mr. Morden]

Final vote on Elaine Chao 93-6.

Who were the 6 voting no?

Gillibrand, Merkley, Sanders, Schumer, Warren and Booker. McConnell voted Present.

If even Sanders and Al Franken are voting Aye... But yeah, Boooker is veeeeeeeeery moderate and a veeeeeeery strong candidate.  

Sanders didn't vote aye.  He was one of the 6 no votes, as shown above.

I do wonder if Booker and Gillibrand (and maybe even Warren) still would have voted no on Chao if they weren't running for president.

[Mr. Morden]

Why in the hell did Warner and King vote for Tillerson?

I guess Warner was telling the truth about not wanting to run for president in the future...

[Mr. Morden]

Sen. Moran of Kansas says he's undecided on Betsy DeClown

Surprised he of all people would not be an easy yes

Moran has always been pretty indecisive, and frequently waits until the last minute to commit to anything.  E.g., last year he was wobbly on whether the Senate should hold hearings for Merrick Garland.  And he was pretty late in endorsing Trump for president (then waffled on it some more, even after he endorsed him).

[Mr. Morden]

So I guess the order for confirmation votes on the Senate floor this week (starting tomorrow) is DeVos, Sessions, Price, Mnuchin:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/senate-pushes-to-confirm-devos-sessions-price-mnuchin-next-week/article/2613941

I think the Veterans committee will also vote on Shulkin tomorrow.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/education/wp/2017/02/06/senate-democrats-mount-one-last-push-against-betsy-devos/?utm_term=.192025b74d4c

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Also:

http://www.koco.com/article/senate-round-the-clock-trump-cabinet-devos-sessions-democrats-confirmation/8680353

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[Mr. Morden]

Bold Prediction - zero Republicans cross over to vote against Puzder, Puzder makes it through 52-48.

Better question, will any Republican vote against any of the remaining nominees?

Possibly not for the remaining Cabinet level appointments.  Paul might vote against some of the deputies in foreign policy areas, like State and Defense.  He's already urging Trump not to pick Elliott Abrams for the #2 job at State.

[Mr. Morden]

Bold Prediction - zero Republicans cross over to vote against Puzder, Puzder makes it through 52-48.

Better question, will any Republican vote against any of the remaining nominees?

Better question yet, will any of the 50 cowards ever oppose Trump in any meaningful way? (i.e. not just talk it abstractly, a la "maaaaaaaaybe I'll have to vote against Tillerson ")

I am not sure it’s so obvious that we can extrapolate what’s happening now forward to what happens when we go from voting on personnel to voting on policy.

Sure, the GOP caucus is voting in near lockstep to confirm the personnel that Trump wants around him.  But that’s what normally happens.  When you get into actual policy debates, that’s where presidents often have real defections from their own party.

The health insurance issue is one where this is already playing out.  Trump would apparently like Congress to do *something* on this issue, but it’s far from obvious that anything other than minor tinkering can pass.  Now, I don’t think it’s clear that Trump cares that much about the issue, so maybe it doesn’t count.  But does Trump really care that much about *any* policy issue?  I’m not convinced.  It’s Paul Ryan who is more interested in passing the Republican agenda than Trump.  And I’m guessing there will in fact be issues where Ryan’s agenda is constrained by divisions within the GOP caucus.  Health care is one, but there will be others.

[Mr. Morden]

Warren-Sanders are 70+, get new strong progressives in blue states!

You mean their age or their poll numbers?  Because last time I checked, Warren was 67 years old, not 70+.

[Mr. Morden]

Warren-Sanders are 70+, get new strong progressives in blue states!

You mean their age or their poll numbers?  Because last time I checked, Warren was 67 years old, not 70+.

I think he meant she'd be 70+ if she were to be sworn in 1/20/2021.

But I thought the conversation was about Dems in the Senate, not Dems who should be in the White House?

[Mr. Morden]

I like Manchin and Klobuchar.

Huh?  Klobuchar voted no, along with the other Dems.  Manchin was the only Dem. to vote for confirmation on Sessions.  Or are you referring to another vote?

[Mr. Morden]

Puzder's confirmation hearing will be Thursday at 10am:

https://www.senate.gov/committees/committee_hearings.htm

And I think we're still waiting for Perdue to have his confirmation hearing.

[Mr. Morden]

Puzder in jeopardy. Four GOPers will likely vote against him.

That's not what the story says.  The story simply says that those four publicly say they're undecided, not that they're leaning for or against.  And as the story notes, Isakson and Scott never publicly commit to supporting a nominee before the confirmation hearing, so the fact that they're not committing this time either is a non-story.

[Mr. Morden]

Are their any other floor votes expected to occur this week?

McConnell filed cloture motions on Ross, Carson, Perry, Zinke, Pruitt, and Mulvaney last night, but all that means is he filed his intent to end debate on those nominees and vote on them. No idea when we'll get formal votes to end debate and formal votes to confirm.

You can follow the senate floor monitor twitter for updates: https://twitter.com/senategopfloor

And isn't the Senate in recess for all of next week?  I think anyone not confirmed this week has to wait until the week of Feb. 27th.

[Mr. Morden]

A Walker spokesman says that Walker "has absolutely no interest" in joining Trump's Cabinet, though I guess that's not quite a Sherman-esque denial:

http://www.usnews.com/news/wisconsin/articles/2017-02-15/walker-spokesman-says-he-has-no-interest-in-labor-job

[Mr. Morden]

Terrible but unexpected news.

How is it unexpected?

[Mr. Morden]

Duke confirmed 85-14:

NAYs ---14
Blumenthal (D-CT)
Booker (D-NJ)
Cortez Masto (D-NV)
Duckworth (D-IL)
Gillibrand (D-NY)
Harris (D-CA)
Heinrich (D-NM)
Markey (D-MA)
Menendez (D-NJ)
Merkley (D-OR)
Murphy (D-CT)
Sanders (I-VT)
Udall (D-NM)
Warren (D-MA)

Not Voting - 1
Isakson (R-GA)

I'm sure it's just a coincidence that the prospective 2020 presidential candidates (e.g., Booker, Gillibrand, Harris, Sanders, Warren) keeping showing up as "no" votes on these lists. 

[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand and Warren are voting no on absolutely everyone, and I'm sure there's absolutely no connection to them running for president. 

[Mr. Morden]

But they will vote against most nominees so that they have an extensive anti-trump record to show off in the 2020 presidential election campaign.

Yeah, here are the six Senators who have the lowest "Trump score" (meaning they "vote with Trump" the least, according to 538):

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Gillibrand 7.0%
Sanders 9.3%
Warren 9.3%
Merkley 11.6%
Booker 11.6%
Harris 14.0%

I'm sure it's just a coincidence that that's a list of people who are apparently thinking about running for president!