Predict the next Democratic primary poll(s)

[Mr. Morden]

Our only 2020 Democratic primary poll so far was this national one by Morning Consult, taken in October:

Morning Consult national poll, conducted Oct. 5-6:

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Politico_MCPostVPToplines-1.pdf
https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Politico_MCPostVPCrosstabs.pdf

If Trump wins this year, who should be the 2020 Dem. nominee?

Warren 28%
Kaine 16%
Booker 9%
Cuomo 8%
"other" 8%
"don't know" 32%

Presumably we'll get more such polls some time soon (within the next month?).  Who will be included in the poll question, and what will the results look like?

Bonus: Same question for Iowa and New Hampshire polls: Who will they include in the poll question, and what will the results be?

[Mr. Morden]

Around the time Iowa voting begins it will be: 35% Warren, 30% Castro, 22% Booker, 8% Cuomo, 2% Bullock

OK, but I'm asking what will polling that comes out within the next couple of weeks/month look like.  Not polling three years from now.

[Mr. Morden]

Warren 26%
Kaine 14%
Booker 9%
Cuomo 8%
Sanders 7%
Clinton 5%
Other 5%
Don't know 26%

If Clinton and Sanders are actually included in such a poll, then I think they'll both do much better than that.  They are still way ahead of the rest of the field in name recognition, and it'll take a long time for that to change.

I'm not sure if one or both will be included though.  Or if they are, then the pollsters might ask for 2nd and 3rd choice options, so that they can do what PPP used to do with Clinton and Biden in the 2016 race, and ask how people would vote if neither of those two people ran.

It really depends on how seriously the media takes the possibility that Clinton and/or Sanders might run again.  Do they figure that with Clinton having lost the general election, she's done now, and with Sanders being nearly 80 in 2020, he's done now too?

[Mr. Morden]

Incidentally, PPP is starting a national poll right now:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/12/national-poll-question-suggestions.html

Hopefully they'll include some 2020 questions.  I'm not too optimistic about them doing a Democratic primary subsample, but maybe they'll include a 2020 GE question?

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders
Warren
Booker
Gillibrand
Harris
Kaine
Cuomo

Not going to guess percentages.

The problem is, that two of these dudes already declined a run.

Just Kaine AFAIK, though I'm not sure the media is going to take his denials seriously.  The pollsters kept including Warren in 2016 polls well into 2015, even after she'd been saying she wasn't running for years.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders
Warren
Booker
Gillibrand
Harris
Kaine
Cuomo

Not going to guess percentages.

The problem is, that two of these dudes already declined a run.

Just Kaine AFAIK, though I'm not sure the media is going to take his denials seriously.  The pollsters kept including Warren in 2016 polls well into 2015, even after she'd been saying she wasn't running for years.

As far as I know, Cuomo also declined because he’s running for a third term as NY Gov. At least Wikipedia lists him as “declined”: Link

Wikipedia's wrong though.  If you look at the article they reference, it just says that Cuomo is saying he's going to run for a third term as governor in 2018.  He hasn't ruled out running for president in 2020.  In fact, when people ask him about it, he changes the subject by saying that he's just focused on being governor, and running for reelection in '18.  It's the classic non-denial.

Kaine is different.  Maybe Kaine will change his mind, and maybe he's lying.  But Kaine has actually explicitly said he's not running for president in 2020.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders
Warren
Booker
Gillibrand
Harris
Kaine
Cuomo

Not going to guess percentages.

The problem is, that two of these dudes already declined a run.

Just Kaine AFAIK, though I'm not sure the media is going to take his denials seriously.  The pollsters kept including Warren in 2016 polls well into 2015, even after she'd been saying she wasn't running for years.

As far as I know, Cuomo also declined because he’s running for a third term as NY Gov. At least Wikipedia lists him as “declined”: Link

Wikipedia's wrong though.  If you look at the article they reference, it just says that Cuomo is saying he's going to run for a third term as governor in 2018.  He hasn't ruled out running for president in 2020.  In fact, when people ask him about it, he changes the subject by saying that he's just focused on being governor, and running for reelection in '18.  It's the classic non-denial.

Kaine is different.  Maybe Kaine will change his mind, and maybe he's lying.  But Kaine has actually explicitly said he's not running for president in 2020.

Followup on this: Looks like Wikipedia's now recanted, and taken Cuomo out of the "declined" category.