The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Mr. Morden]

SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted Feb. 13-17:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83Vpfes67zfUGtRQ1pxWTdKS0E/view

Trump job approval (adults):
approve 45%
disapprove 53%

Trump job approval (RVs):
approve 47%
disapprove 53%

approval margin among…
men: +6
women: -20
white: +7
black: -53
Hispanic: -28
white / no college: +18
white / college degree: -16

[Mr. Morden]

HuffPo/YouGov national poll, conducted Feb. 17-18:

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/tabsHPPresidentTrump20170218.pdf

approve 41%
disapprove 47%

men: +4
women: -16
income under $50k: -10
income between $50k and $100k: +/-0
income over $100k: -1
Midwest: -5
Northeast: -21
South: +7
West: -13

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 16-19:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e4-dc17-a57a-f6fc0d810002
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e2-d5b6-a35f-fef795640001

approve 49%
disapprove 44%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +4
Northeast: -2
South: +11
West: -3

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +14
blacks: -56
Hispanics: +4

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +2
$50-100k: +10
over $100k: +4

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

[Mr. Morden]

SurveyMonkey just came out with a poll two days ago, but looks like they did another one on overlapping dates, this one sponsored by NBC, and conducted Feb. 13-19:

pdf link

Trump job approval:
approve 43%
disapprove 54%

[Mr. Morden]

Marist:

41% approve
49% disapprove

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/white-house/article134111259.html

Midwest: -11
Northeast: -23
South: +8
West: -17

[Mr. Morden]

Ipsos/Reuters national poll, conducted Feb. 17-21:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=16437

approve 45%
disapprove 50%

[Mr. Morden]

NBC/Survey Monkey:

Net Approve: 43%
Strongly Approve - 25%
Somewhat Approve - 18%

Net Disapprove: 54%
Somewhat Disapprove - 11%
Strongly Disapprove - 43%

I posted that poll three days ago. 

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252808.msg5537375#msg5537375

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 16-19:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e4-dc17-a57a-f6fc0d810002
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-62e2-d5b6-a35f-fef795640001

approve 49%
disapprove 44%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +4
Northeast: -2
South: +11
West: -3

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +14
blacks: -56
Hispanics: +4

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +2
$50-100k: +10
over $100k: +4

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

That has to a typo on your part or a typo on  "Morning Consult Polling"(s) part because there is no way Trump is at +4 approval with Hispanics. His disapproval with Hispanics are in the negative mid 40-low 50's with Hispanics in other polls on here.

Their writeup has the following breakdown for Hispanics:

strongly approve 22%
somewhat approve 28%
somewhat disapprove 13%
strongly disapprove 33%

So the totals are:
approve 50%
disapprove 46%

Their Hispanic sample is 180 people so MoE is of course quite large.

[Mr. Morden]

NBC/WSJ:
Approval: 44%
Disapproval: 48%

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-s-job-approval-stands-just-44-percent-partisan-splits-n725621

“President Trump implemented a temporary travel ban for people from seven countries including Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.  This ban would last for three or four months for people from those countries and indefinitely for refugees from Syria until enhanced vetting procedures could be put into place.  This ban was struck down by the federal courts and the existing vetting process that was being used before President Trump’s travel ban remains in place.

Do you think a temporary ban from these seven countries…”

is necessary 44%
is unnecessary 45%
don’t know enough to have an opinion yet 10%
not sure 1%

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Feb. 24-26:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-81a1-d487-a37e-edb1a8f30001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-819f-d2c6-a7db-d9bfcf110001

approve 50%
disapprove 45%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +5
Northeast: -8
South: +11
West: +7

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +15
blacks: -40
Hispanics: -5

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +3
$50-100k: +6
over $100k: +11

6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

[Mr. Morden]

Economist/YouGov (Conducted 2/25 - 3/1)
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 51%

men: -7
women: -11
income under $50k: -16
income between $50k and $100k: +10
income over $100k: -11
white: +2
black: -59
Hispanic: -17

[Mr. Morden]

SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted Feb. 24 - Mar. 2:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArclliZElUcm9RRjg/view

Trump job approval (adults):
approve 45%
disapprove 54%

Trump job approval (RVs):
approve 47%
disapprove 53%

approval margin among…
men: +7
women: -22
white: +10
black: -60
Hispanic: -40
white / no college: +20
white / college degree: -14

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s the Monmouth poll:

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_030617/

It’s 43/46% among adults and 44/46% among registered voters.

men: +9
women: -17
whites: +20
non-whites: -50
income less than $50k: -11
income $50-100k: +6
income over $100k: -4

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 2-6:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-ab44-db00-af7a-bfe51b920001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-ab42-dd25-a75e-ffdf5b800001

approve 50%
disapprove 45%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +4
Northeast: +/-0
South: +6
West: +6

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +16
blacks: -47
Hispanics: -14

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +6
$50-100k: +2
over $100k: +6

5% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

[Mr. Morden]

SurveyMonkey national poll, conducted Mar. 1-5:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/surveymonkey-27194
https://blog.electiontracking.surveymonkey.com/2017/03/07/trumps-speech-approval-uptick-opinion-headwinds/

approve 48%
disapprove 51%

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 2-6:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-ab44-db00-af7a-bfe51b920001
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-ab42-dd25-a75e-ffdf5b800001

approve 50%
disapprove 45%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +4
Northeast: +/-0
South: +6
West: +6

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +16
blacks: -47
Hispanics: -14

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +6
$50-100k: +2
over $100k: +6

5% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

This poll is 81% white, since when was the electorate 81% white?

It likely includes White Hispanics.

That’s right.  The poll is:

non-Hispanic white 72%
black 13%
Hispanic 9%
other 6%

The “white” in the crosstabs includes Hispanic whites though, which is why it comes out to 81%.

[Mr. Morden]

I think it's quite possible he'll have a net positive rating sooner or later, but I also believe his ceiling is historically low for an incumbent president.  He might not ever have more than 55% or so of Americans on his side, unless something cataclysmic happens, like a terrorist attack on the scale of 9/11.

Excluding the "honeymoon period" during his first six months and the "riding off into the sunset" period during his final month or so in office, wasn't the same true of Obama?  Sure, there were a few individual polls where he was above 55%, but when else was the polling average for him higher than that, excluding the very beginning and the very end?  Trump of course isn't getting the same kind of early honeymoon period that Obama got, but I think if he follows the Obama trajectory from the middle of his first year onwards, he'd be very happy with that.

[Mr. Morden]

Economist/YouGov national poll, conducted March 13-14:

pdf link

Trump job approval/disapproval:
41/49% for -8%

[Mr. Morden]

A legit PPP national poll of registered voters: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_31517.pdf

Approve 43% (-2)
Disapprove 50% (+2)

They also poll the generic House ballot here:

Dems 46%
GOP 41%

It's really early, of course, but a 5 point popular vote win wouldn't be enough for the Dems to take back the House, given the GOP's structural advantage in how the district lines are drawn.

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult seems to have oversampled rural areas. The breakdown is 43/31/23 suburban/rural/urban. Rural areas are only 17% of the electorate according to exit polls.

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-cf3b-db68-a97b-dffbdcb40000

But do all pollsters define urban/suburban/rural the same way?

[Mr. Morden]

It's worth noting that according to 538, Trump is more unpopular now than he has ever been.

His job approval is worse than it's been since his inauguration, but his favorability is better than it was during the campaign (including on election day):

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating

[Mr. Morden]

Here is a favorability poll of Colorado, conducted March 8-13:

http://gazette.com/hickenlooper-viewed-favorably-trump-less-so-in-new-keatingonsight-colorado-polling/article/1599330

favorable 43%
unfavorable 55%

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll on Trump job approval, conducted Mar. 16-19:

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-f30d-d373-a17b-ffbf89cd0000
http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015a-f30c-dc62-a1db-f3ff026b0001

approve 50%
disapprove 44%

Trump job approval margin by region:
Midwest: +10
Northeast: -12
South: +15
West: +/-0

Trump job approval margin by race:
whites: +15
blacks: -48
Hispanics: +4

Trump job approval margin by income:
under $50k: +8
$50-100k: +4
over $100k: +1

7% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance.  13% of Clinton voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

[Mr. Morden]

Marquette Poll of WI:

41% Approve
47% Disapprove

So the question is was Hillary just a bad fit for the state?

Well, keep in mind that the exit poll on election day showed Trump with terrible favorability #s in Wisconsin.  It was:

favorable 35%
unfavorable 64%

So 29 points underwater on favorability, while Clinton was 14 points underwater.  Trump won quite a few states where he was heavily underwater on favorability, and with lower ratings than Clinton.

[Mr. Morden]

Harvard-Harris national poll, conducted Mar. 14-16 (registered voters):

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/harris-harvard-27335

approve 49%
disapprove 51%

favorable 44%
unfavorable 51%