latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Harris has dropped below 40, as Rice surges….

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 38.1
Rice 26.9
Duckworth 10.7
Bass 8.3
Warren 7.5
Demings 6.2

Four years ago today, Clinton named Kaine as her running mate.  Earlier in that day though, here were the Betfair #s:

Dem VP nominee
Kaine 87.7
Vilsack 11.6
Perez 5.3
Warren 2.6

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3359873#msg3359873

GOP VP nominee
Portman 28.0
Pawlenty 25.7
Rubio 8.2
Jindal 6.0
Rice 5.4
Thune 5.4
Ryan 4.5
Ayotte 2.4
McDonnell 1.9
McMorris-Rodgers 1.3
Christie 1.1
Daniels 0.9

Twelve years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=78538.msg1640181#msg1640181

Dem. VP nominee
Bayh 15.1
Sebelius 15.1
Biden 15.0
Clinton 13.8
Kaine 12.4
Edwards 8.0
Nunn 8.0
Hagel 7.0
McCaskill 6.7
Clark 6.5

GOP VP nominee
Romney 37.6
Pawlenty 32.3
Palin 13.0
Crist 10.0
Jindal 9.0
Huckabee 7.2
Fiorina 7.0
Portman 7.0
Thune 7.0
Cantor 6.1

[Mr. Morden]

Bass surges into 3rd place in the Dem. VP market.  Meanwhile, Pence is below 90 to be the GOP VP nominee.

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 34.8
Rice 23.2
Bass 14.9
Duckworth 12.8
Warren 6.5
Demings 4.3

GOP VP nominee
Pence 88.9
Haley 7.2

Eight years ago at about this point on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3366280#msg3366280

GOP VP nominee
Portman 29.5
Pawlenty 24.6
Rubio 9.1
Thune 7.1
Rice 5.5
Jindal 5.2
McDonnell 5.0
Ryan 3.4
Ayotte 2.2
Christie 1.4
Martinez 0.7
McMorris-Rodgers 0.7

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=78538.msg1642342#msg1642342

Dem. VP nominee
Bayh 19.8
Sebelius 15.1
Biden 13.4
Kaine 12.6
Clinton 9.2
Nunn 9.0
Edwards 7.5
McCaskill 6.7
Clark 6.5
Reed 6.1

GOP VP nominee
Romney 38.7
Pawlenty 25.0
Palin 15.0
Portman 11.7
Crist 10.0
Thune 10.0
Huckabee 7.2

[Mr. Morden]

Big surge for Harris in the VP market:

Dem. pres. nominee
Biden 96.2
Clinton 2.9
M. Obama 0.6

GOP pres. nominee
Trump 94.1
Pence 3.2
Haley 1.1
Ryan 1.0

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 57.6
Rice 22.6
Duckworth 6.8
Bass 6.4
Warren 5.1

GOP VP nominee
Pence 89.5
Haley 6.5

[Mr. Morden]

Haven’t updated in a few days now, but Harris has dropped down to 40-ish again.  Bass had been surging again big-time up through mid-day yesterday, when she was in the 2nd place, and in the 20s.  But the Scientology story knocked her back into the teens, with Rice again in 2nd place.

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 40.6
Rice 20.5
Bass 16.3
Duckworth 11.6
Warren 6.0
Demings 3.8

Eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3370997#msg3370997

GOP VP nominee
Portman 30.5
Pawlenty 24.2
Rubio 10.9
Thune 8.9
Ryan 4.6
McDonnell 4.5
Jindal 4.1
Rice 3.5
Ayotte 2.0
Hutchison 1.2

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=78538.msg1651980#msg1651980

Dem. VP nominee
Kaine 30.1
Bayh 26.0
Sebelius 18.0
Biden 10.7
Schweitzer 5.6
Edwards 5.0
Clinton 4.0
Nunn 4.0
Reed 4.0
Zinni 4.0

GOP VP nominee
Pawlenty 30.0
Romney 29.6
Palin 20.0
Thune 6.0
Huckabee 5.1
Cantor 5.0
Crist 5.0
Giuliani 5.0
Portman 5.0
Ridge 5.0

[Mr. Morden]

I'm actually shocked that Palin was at 20% twelve years ago. I seem to recall her selection being a major surprise...

This was a few weeks out from her ultimate selection, and as we got closer to decision day her share price gradually deflated, as the leaks seemed to suggest that she was no longer in the mix.

[Mr. Morden]

Harris over 50 again, and Duckworth passes Bass for 3rd place, as Bass drops hard….

Winning Individual
Biden 62.5
Trump 36.7

Dem. pres. nominee
Biden 96.2
Clinton 2.0
M. Obama 0.5
Harris 0.4

GOP pres. nominee
Trump 96.2
Pence 3.0

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 54.3
Rice 15.4
Duckworth 9.8
Bass 8.9
Warren 5.6
Demings 3.8

[Mr. Morden]

Demings surging, now closing in on double digits….

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 50.4
Rice 18.9
Duckworth 10.5
Demings 9.8
Warren 7.5
Bass 6.2

[Mr. Morden]

Well, that Demings surge seems to be over....

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 50.9
Rice 24.1
Duckworth 8.8
Warren 7.0
Demings 5.8
Bass 5.5

[Mr. Morden]

Harris and Rice both gain at everyone else’s expense.  Bass now down to 7th place, behind Michelle Obama….

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 52.4
Rice 27.7
Duckworth 7.0
Warren 4.2
Demings 3.8
M. Obama 3.6
Bass 2.3

[Mr. Morden]

Harris drops below 50 again, as Rice surges.  Demings back up to 3rd place....

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 48.0
Rice 37.0
Demings 6.8
Whitmer 5.3
Duckworth 4.8
Warren 3.8

[Mr. Morden]

Whitmer up to double digits....

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 50.0
Rice 30.8
Whitmer 12.4
Demings 5.1
Warren 5.1
Bass 4.8
Duckworth 4.8

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3377256#msg3377256

GOP VP nominee
Portman 30.5
Pawlenty 18.0
Rubio 10.9
Ryan 10.0
Thune 6.0
McDonnell 4.0
Jindal 3.8
Christie 2.6
Petraeus 2.0
Rice 2.0

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=78538.msg1658693#msg1658693

Dem. VP nominee
Bayh 27.5
Kaine 16.2
Sebelius 15.0
Biden 11.0
Clinton 8.8
Gephardt 8.6
Hagel 6.0
Clark 5.1
Schweitzer 4.0
Rendell 3.5

GOP VP nominee
Romney 30.0
Pawlenty 20.0
Ridge 15.0
Palin 14.0
Cantor 11.0
Crist 6.0
Jindal 5.2
Giuliani 5.0
Huckabee 4.0
Portman 4.0

[Mr. Morden]

Harris drops as Whitmer gains a little more….

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 44.4
Rice 28.0
Whitmer 14.9
Warren 4.8
Duckworth 4.2
M. Obama 3.8

[Mr. Morden]

A bit of a Duckworth bump today….

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 45.0
Rice 27.4
Whitmer 12.8
Duckworth 7.5
Warren 4.8
Demings 4.3

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3379533#msg3379533

GOP VP nominee
Portman 29.4
Ryan 23.0
Pawlenty 18.0
Rubio 9.7
McDonnell 3.5
Thune 3.1
Christie 2.9
Jindal 2.8
Rice 1.7
Ayotte 1.1

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=78538.msg1661532#msg1661532

Dem. VP nominee
Bayh 28.0
Kaine 16.0
Sebelius 14.5
Biden 11.5
Clinton 6.1
Schweitzer 5.5
Clark 5.0
Hagel 5.0
Rendell 3.5
Zinni 3.5

GOP VP nominee
Romney 30.0
Pawlenty 21.0
Palin 12.5
Ridge 10.0
Crist 9.7
Lieberman 7.6
Cantor 7.2
Jindal 5.2
Giuliani 5.0

[Mr. Morden]

Rice gains some more, now crossing 30.  And Duckworth’s bump from yesterday has faded, as Warren bumps her out of 4th place.

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 44.4
Rice 30.5
Whitmer 10.7
Warren 6.2
Duckworth 4.3
Demings 3.4

Eight years ago was the eve of Romney’s announcement that his VP pick was Paul Ryan.  In response to the hints coming from various leaks (like the fact that the announcement was being made on the USS Wisconsin), Ryan surged into a big lead on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3380671#msg3380671

GOP VP nomination
Ryan 75.0
Portman 27.0
Pawlenty 5.0
McDonnell 4.3
Rubio 3.9
Jindal 1.9
Christie 1.1
Rice 0.7

Then, less than an hour later, his lead was even bigger, as various news outlets were confirming he was the pick:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3380783#msg3380783

GOP VP nomination
Ryan 90.0
Rubio 1.3
Pawlenty 1.0
McDonnell 0.9
Portman 0.5

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=78538.msg1663469#msg1663469

Dem. VP nomination
Bayh 35.0
Kaine 19.0
Sebelius 12.1
Gephardt 12.0
Biden 11.9
Clinton 6.5
Schweitzer 5.5
Hagel 5.2
Clark 5.0
Richardson 4.0

GOP VP nomination
Romney 30.0
Pawlenty 22.0
Ridge 17.5
Palin 12.0
Lieberman 7.6
Cantor 7.2
Crist 5.2
Jindal 5.2
Giuliani 5.0

[Mr. Morden]

Rice has taken the lead (narrowly)....

Dem. VP nominee
Rice 38.5
Harris 37.1
Whitmer 9.5
Duckworth 6.2
M. Obama 4.5
H. Clinton 4.0
Demings 3.4
Warren 3.4

[Mr. Morden]

Well, that didn’t last long.  Back to a Harris lead…

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 41.5
Rice 33.9
Whitmer 10.5
Duckworth 6.2
Warren 4.2
M. Obama 4.0

[Mr. Morden]

Well.....

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 67.7
Rice 24.1
M. Obama 3.4
Warren 3.2
Whitmer 3.0
Demings 2.9

[Mr. Morden]

Winning Individual
Biden 60.0
Trump 40.0

[Mr. Morden]

Winning Individual
Biden 51.2
Trump 48.8

[Mr. Morden]

Winning Individual
Biden 63.2
Trump 39.4