Here’s my roundup of the shifts in party support from selected demographic groups, according to the 2012 and 2016 presidential exit polls. E.g., when I write:
what I mean is that, according to the exit polls, Clinton did 4 percentage points worse among men in 2016 than Obama did in 2012, while Trump did the same among men as Romney did, and the 3rd party candidates in ’16 did 4 points better among men than the ’12 3rd party candidates did.
Here’s a list:
men:
dem -4
gop 0 change
ind +4
women:
dem -1
gop -3
ind +4
age 18-29:
dem -5
gop -1
ind +6
age 30-44:
dem -1
gop -4
ind +5
age 45-64:
dem -3
gop +1
ind +2
age 65+:
dem +1
gop -4
ind +3
white
dem -2
gop -2
ind +4
black
dem -4
gop +2
ind +2
latino
dem -5
gop +1
ind +4
asian
dem -8
gop +1
ind +7
democrats
dem -3
gop +1
ind +2
republicans
dem +2
gop -5
ind +3
independents
dem -3
gop -4
ind +7
college graduate
dem +2
gop -6
ind +4
not college graduate
dem -7
gop +4
ind +3
under $50k
dem -7
gop +3
ind +4
$50-100k
dem 0 change
gop -3
ind +3
over $100k
dem +3
gop -7
ind +4
protestant
dem -3
gop -1
ind +4
catholic
dem -4
gop +2
ind +2
jewish
dem +2
gop -7
ind +5
Biggest gains for Clinton over Obama: incomes over $100k (+3)
Biggest losses for Clinton over Obama: Asians (-8)
Biggest gains for Trump over Romney: non-college graduates (+4)
Biggest losses for Trump over Romney: incomes over $100k, Jews (-4 for both)
Biggest gains for 2016 3rd parties over 2012 3rd parties: Asians, Independents (+7 for both)
Smallest gains for 2016 3rd parties over 2012 3rd parties: age 45-64, blacks, Democrats, Catholics (+2 for all)
Note that there is no demographic group for which the 3rd parties lost ground.