The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

[Mr. Morden]

A minority of states representing a minority of the population shouldn't be circumventing the Constitution to decide the way that the whole nation must elect the president.

"Representing a minority of the population"?  If this were to actually pass in enough states to reach 270, it would presumably be in states representing a majority of the population.  I don't see a realistic combination of remaining states that would be otherwise.

[Mr. Morden]

The EC is unpopular among the public, even in Republican states, and I bet there are a lot of places where the NPV Compact could pass in a referendum even if it couldn't make it through the legislature.

What's the path of least resistance on getting there via referendum?  Not every state allows you to pass legislation via referendum, so I'm wondering what combination of states is the most realistic?

[Mr. Morden]

I'd also add that while the EC is unpopular among even Republican voters now, if Republican party leaders are convinced that it benefits them, they could whip up a scare campaign to politicize it in any referendum vote.  So I'm not sure it would actually pass in any likely R or solid R states.  You'd need to rely on a combination of Dem. states and swing states, and I don't know if there are enough such states that allow you to pass legislation by referendum to get the NPV to 270.

[Mr. Morden]

In a state referendum in a swing state like Florida, any chance that you'd have a decent amount of opposition not from partisan Republicans, but from folks who just don't want the state to give up its special status as a swing state?  I mean, if NPV passes, then the bargaining power of voters in swing states is no greater than that of the voters anywhere else.