2020 Democratic Primary: Wide Open(NON-REPUBLICAN VOTERS ONLY) (user search)
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  2020 Democratic Primary: Wide Open(NON-REPUBLICAN VOTERS ONLY) (search mode)
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Poll
Question: skip
#1
Governor Philip Murphy(D-NJ)
 
#2
Governor Gavin Newsom(D-CA)
 
#3
Senator Cory Booker(D-NJ)
 
#4
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand(D-NY)
 
#5
Senator Elizabeth Warren(D-MA)
 
#6
Senator Ron Wyden(D-OR)
 
#7
Radio Host Thom Hartmann(D-DC)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 162

Author Topic: 2020 Democratic Primary: Wide Open(NON-REPUBLICAN VOTERS ONLY)  (Read 4169 times)
Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,066
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« on: November 10, 2016, 02:03:54 PM »

As a caveat to what I said, there's also the possibility that the Democrats would do better moving away from the 'checking minority boxes' approach that a lot of people, at least online, seem to be advocating. This isn't to say they should nominate someone like Cooper or Hickenlooper or Murphy because he's a white man, far from it, but that it might be behovely to let such a person through the primaries if it looks in three years like he'll be the best messenger to take the party back to power.

But most primary voters don't think strategically like that.  "Checking minority boxes" may well be closer to what Dem. primary voters are thinking, and thus it may determine the nomination, even if it's not a smart way to go for finding the strongest GE candidate.

For example, let's say Cory Booker runs in 2020.  I don't know if the fact that he's black is going to mean that he'll get the overwhelming majority of the black vote in the primaries, a la Obama 2008.  But it's certainly a possibility.  And given the way the '08 and '16 primaries went, it seems like dominating the black vote gets you a long way towards winning the nomination.  It might not be how voters should think if they were to act strategically, but I don't see a way to stop them from doing so.
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Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,066
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2016, 04:32:39 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2016, 04:34:18 PM by Mr. Morden »

This isn't a Top 6 list just the 6 people I think will run.

1.) Kamala Harris
2.) Cory Booker
3.) Andrew Cuomo
4.) Tulsi Gabbard
5.) Martin O'Malley
6.) Tim Kaine

Klobuchar met with both the Iowa and South Carolina delegations at the DNC this summer.  And she dropped tons of hints in 2012/2013 indicating presidential ambitions, but presumably didn't run in '16 because she figured she had no chance against Clinton.  I'd say she's as likely to run in 2020 as anyone.  Gillibrand has made similar moves in the past ~5 years, though not quite as overt as Klobuchar.  Not sure if Gillibrand running would be complicated by her homestate governor also running.  (But hey, Bush and Rubio managed to coexist in the same race.)

It's also useful to look at the list of surrogates who potentially have national ambitions who campaigned for either Clinton or Sanders in Iowa last winter, before the caucuses:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/03/27/whos-running-president-2020-iowa-visits-offer-hints/82230962/

Tammy Baldwin
Cory Booker
Julian Castro
Bill de Blasio
Tulsi Gabbard
Kirsten Gillibrand
Tim Kaine
Amy Klobuchar
Tom Perez

Some of them were presumably just angling for veep.  But I don't know, it wouldn't shock me if, say, Bill de Blasio had presidential ambitions.  Maybe Cuomo, Gillibrand, and de Blasio could all run and split the New Yorker vote.
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