CBS/YouGov: Clinton +6 in NV, Trump +17 in UT, Clinton +6 in Battleground Tracke

[Mr. Morden]

Again, this is not useless. One can get a good idea of where the race stands in each battleground state using this information, and a couple other assumptions.

I calculated margins for each state using the following two assumptions:
1. The battleground states will have the same turnout proportions (relative to one another) as they had in 2012.
2. The battleground states will have margins relative to each other as described by 538's polls-plus model.

Neither of these assumptions is perfect, obviously, but they're likely good approximations. Given this, here's what we get for the margins in each battleground state...
AZ: D+2 (47%/45%)
CO: D+9 (50%/41%)
FL: D+6 (50%/44%)
GA: R+2 (46%/48%)
IA: D+4 (52%/48%)
MI: D+11 (51%/40%)
NV: D+6 (49%/43%)
NH: D+9 (50%/41%)
NC: D+5 (52%/47%)
OH: D+4 (48%/44%)
PA: D+9 (51%/42%)
VA: D+10 (51%/41%)
WI: D+10 (51%/41%)

To put it another way, according to 538's polls+ model, we would expect this particular grouping of states to be ~3-4 points more Republican than the national average (I mean, it includes states like Georgia which are a good ~10 points more Republican than the national average, but doesn't include states like New Jersey or Washington to balance it out).  So because the result here is Clinton +6, that corresponds to the national margin being about Clinton +9 or 10.

[Mr. Morden]

Utah crosstabs:

https://www.scribd.com/document/327758570/CBS-News-Battleground-Tracker-Utah-Oct-16

Dems
Clinton 91%
Johnson 4%
McMullin 2%
Trump 1%
Stein 0%

GOP
Trump 52%
McMullin 25%
Clinton 3%
Johnson 3%
Stein 0%

Indies
Trump 32%
Clinton 20%
McMullin 18%
Johnson 13%
Stein 1%

men:
Trump 42%
Clinton 21%
McMullin 16%
Johnson 8%
Stein 0%

women:
Trump 31%
McMullin 24%
Clinton 19% (lower than her %age with men!)
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%

McMullin leads with youngs, while Trump leads massively with olds…

age 18-29: McMullin +6 over Clinton
age 30-44: Trump +10 over Clinton
age 45-64: Trump +17 over McMullin
age 65+: Trump +44 over Clinton

[Mr. Morden]

Are other polls showing this kind of massive gap? I know older people like Trump more but this gap in Utah is crazy.

The Monmouth Utah divided by age in only two large bins, over and under 50:

under 50:
Trump 31%
Clinton 25%
McMullin 24%
Johnson 13%

over 50:
Trump 38%
Clinton 32%
McMullin 16%
Johnson 4%

So not such a massive age gap in that poll.  Though the one point of agreement between the two polls is that McMullin does better with youngs.  But I guess in the case of the Yougov poll, they’re saying that McMullin is massively popular with young Republicans and not so popular with old Republicans, and so that’s presumably what’s driving the insanely large differential in Trump’s support by age.

Here’s the Yougov # for just Trump and McMullin between youngs and olds:

age 18-29:
McMullin 33%
Trump 13%

age 65+:
Trump 61%
McMullin 10%