1st debate TV ratings

[Mr. Morden]

Early #s show the viewership on the broadcast networks (ABC/CBS/NBC/Fox) up 23% from the first Obama-Romney debate in '12:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/tv-ratings-clinton-trump-debate-932785

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2016/09/president_debate_ratings_how_m.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Here's some early Nielsen data that includes the cable news networks:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/27/media/debate-ratings-record-viewership/index.html?sr=twpol092716debate-ratings-record-viewership0245PMVODtopLink&linkId=29248123

So, sounds like they're saying total TV viewership was ~81 million, the same as the 1980 Reagan-Carter debate.  But since there were also some people who watched it online, total viewership would be higher than the 1980 debate.

Of course, the US's population is a lot higher today than it was in 1980, so 80 million might not be as impressive as it once was.

[Mr. Morden]

Of course, the US's population is a lot higher today than it was in 1980, so 80 million might not be as impressive as it once was.

Right - The US adult population as of 2013 is 242,470,820, so 35% of that is something like 84.8 million, and I think it would be fair to say that when all viewers are taken into account, even the ones we do not have statistics for yet, the total viewers might be even higher than that.

So at least 35% of the adult population seems to me like a reasonable estimate right now. That's not really a record in terms of share of adult population. It seems, at first glance, maybe slightly above average, give or take. In terms of raw number of viewers, the final numbers are likely to be historic.

In 1980, I added up the number of people ages 15+ (I couldn't find an easy 18+ statistic for 1980), which was 175,255,466, and 80.6 million of that is roughly 46%, so, % of adult population:

2016: 35% (my rough est.)
1980: 44 - 46%^*

* 1980 viewer % includes ages 15, 16 and 17 due to statistic groups available

Are you accounting for the fact that it's not just the US population that includes people under 18, but some of the debate watchers are also under 18?

[Mr. Morden]

Are you accounting for the fact that it's not just the US population that includes people under 18, but some of the debate watchers are also under 18?

Oh, that's a good point. Wouldn't that be more of the youtube views and such? Each one of those 80 million from TV/etc would be a household, right? So that would be fair to assume there is at least 1 adult watching. Well I'm sure there were lots of households with just under-age people watching, but how many I do wonder.

No, the 80 million is supposed to be people, not households.  I've never been in a Nielsen household (though I know people who have), but my understanding is that you're supposed to record how many people in your family are watching each program.  So if it's a family of four, and they're all watching, then that's four people.  Whether people are diligent about recording such things, I don't know.  (And if they're not, do they systematically underreport or overreport the people watching?)

In any case, while a debate audience would certainly skew old, I'm sure there were plenty of households where parents + kids would watch together.

[Mr. Morden]

Just wanted to post this - Vox made a graphic showing the percentage of the voting-age population that tuned in, going back to 1976:

My takeaway from this graph is that the internet taking off in 1995 killed debate ratings, since people suddenly had alternative entertainment options beyond just watching TV. 

[Mr. Morden]

From skimming that Vox article:

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/9/27/13074594/trump-clinton-debate-ratings-historic-disappointing

it sounds like they also forgot that some of the debate viewers were kids.  81 million people might have watched, but you have to subtract away those who are under 18 if you want to then divide by the number of adults to get the percentage of adults who watched.