Republicans New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET) (user search)
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  Republicans New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Republicans New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET)  (Read 22989 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: April 19, 2016, 04:55:14 AM »
« edited: April 19, 2016, 04:46:50 PM by Mr. Morden »
Polls in New York will be open from 6am to 9pm ET.

At 5pm, the networks will be given access to the early exit poll numbers.  So some time between about 5:10 and 5:30pm or so, we’ll start getting news reports from them about things like what percentage of the voters are Independents, what the top issues on voters’ minds are, etc.  But they’ll withhold the topline numbers (who is winning the exit poll) until all the polls have closed in the state.

CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ny/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/new-york
New York Board of Elections (includes CD results): http://nyenr.elections.state.ny.us/home.aspx
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2016, 10:02:31 AM »
Of course, if you're an anti-Trump voter in NY, voting Carson is just as good as voting Cruz or Kasich, provided you don't live in a district that Trump could conceivably lose to Cruz or Kasich.  If it helps get Trump under 50% in your district, a Carson vote is as good as a Cruz or Kasich vote.  The only issue would be if you lived in a district where the Cruz-Kasich margin was close, and you had a strong preference as to which of them should get a delegate.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2016, 04:34:10 PM »
Exit poll info:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-republican-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=38487665

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: April 19, 2016, 04:49:57 PM »
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/722539232095506432

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2016, 05:00:38 PM »
New York exits on electability:



compared to Wisconsin exits on electability:
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: April 19, 2016, 05:11:19 PM »
What % wouldn't vote for X if they were the nominee?:
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: April 19, 2016, 05:16:59 PM »

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: April 19, 2016, 05:18:42 PM »
Quote from: standwrand on April 19, 2016, 05:11:54 PM
probably Trump 55% with Kasich taking most #nevertrump voters and Cruz at less than 15%

Trump is at 56% on electability, while Cruz is at 16%.  Doesn't Trump usually do better in these polls on electability than he does on actual votes, while Cruz is the reverse?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: April 19, 2016, 05:24:41 PM »

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #9 on: April 19, 2016, 05:50:08 PM »

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: April 19, 2016, 05:55:30 PM »

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: April 19, 2016, 06:15:57 PM »

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: April 19, 2016, 06:33:13 PM »
Republican voters by ideology (from NY exits, as given on CNN TV):

very conservative 21%
somewhat conservative 50%
moderate 24%
liberal 6%
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: April 19, 2016, 07:07:20 PM »

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: April 19, 2016, 07:33:19 PM »

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #15 on: April 19, 2016, 08:00:56 PM »
Exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

Trump 57.5%
Kasich 25.5%
Cruz 16%
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #16 on: April 19, 2016, 08:03:51 PM »
Exit poll by region:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ny/Rep

NYC:
Trump 52
Cruz 25
Kasich 23

Long Island
Trump 67
Kasich 23
Cruz 10

Hudson Valley
Trump 64
Kasich 25
Cruz 11

Urban Upstate
Trump 60
Kasich 20
Cruz 18

Rural Upstate
Trump 46
Kasich 33
Cruz 21
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #17 on: April 19, 2016, 08:06:20 PM »
5% of Republican voters were Latino and 4% were black.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #18 on: April 19, 2016, 08:34:40 PM »
Trump leading, yet below 50%, in three heavily Democratic NYC districts:

http://nyenr.elections.state.ny.us/home.aspx

CD10, 12, and 13.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #19 on: April 19, 2016, 08:55:44 PM »
NYT precinct data in NYC (Trump red, Cruz orange, Kasich green):

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/722602232978477056

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #20 on: April 20, 2016, 08:16:52 AM »
Updated national popular vote (so far):

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R

Trump 38%
Cruz 28%
Rubio 15%
Kasich 14%
Carson 3%
Bush 1%

I guess Kasich will catch up to Rubio next Tuesday.
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