Democratic New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET) (user search)
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  Democratic New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democratic New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET)  (Read 26348 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: April 19, 2016, 04:54:01 AM »
« edited: April 19, 2016, 04:46:00 PM by Mr. Morden »
Polls in New York will be open from 6am to 9pm ET.

At 5pm, the networks will be given access to the early exit poll numbers.  So some time between about 5:10 and 5:30pm or so, we’ll start getting news reports from them about things like what percentage of the voters are Independents, what the top issues on voters’ minds are, etc.  But they’ll withhold the topline numbers (who is winning the exit poll) until all the polls have closed in the state.

CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ny/Dem
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/new-york
New York Board of Elections (includes CD results): http://nyenr.elections.state.ny.us/home.aspx
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2016, 05:48:09 AM »
Here's video of a polling place in Erie just after the polls opened:

https://www.periscope.tv/w/1MnGnWoVyZyJO

Anyone want to try to profile those people, to guess who they voted for, and thereby infer who's winning? Tongue
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2016, 10:05:57 AM »

The Democratic ballots actually tell you whether a delegate candidate is male or female?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: April 19, 2016, 04:31:31 PM »
https://twitter.com/evanmcmurry/status/722537300538880001

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2016, 04:38:04 PM »
Exit poll info:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-democratic-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=38487802

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: April 19, 2016, 04:41:46 PM »
More specific race #s:

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/722539508424642560

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: April 19, 2016, 04:51:33 PM »
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/722541691333451777

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: April 19, 2016, 05:12:59 PM »

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: April 19, 2016, 05:15:26 PM »



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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #9 on: April 19, 2016, 05:22:43 PM »

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: April 19, 2016, 05:47:18 PM »
Quote from: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on April 19, 2016, 05:28:03 PM
I think we need to keep remembering very closed primary. I'm not sure this data is telling us much at all.

Is there a reason why exit polls would be more reliable in an open primary than a closed primary?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: April 19, 2016, 05:59:46 PM »

Well, given that we also have this:



that points to the topline #s being very close between the two candidates, since the overall "energized" / "divided" party #s are close to being halfway between the Clinton and Sanders #s.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: April 19, 2016, 06:03:37 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on April 19, 2016, 05:59:46 PM

Well, given that we also have this:



that points to the topline #s being very close between the two candidates, since the overall "energized" / "divided" party #s are close to being halfway between the Clinton and Sanders #s.


Actually, I just did some algebra on this.  Unfortunately, because of rounding, this isn't very precise, but I'd estimate a topline Clinton lead of ~10 points.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: April 19, 2016, 07:29:38 PM »

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: April 19, 2016, 07:37:00 PM »

I guess I forgot that I posted it earlier.  Too many numbers to keep track of.  Tongue
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #15 on: April 19, 2016, 08:10:07 PM »
white women:

Clinton 50%
Sanders 49%
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #16 on: April 19, 2016, 08:12:18 PM »
Exit poll by region:

NYC:
Clinton 55
Sanders 45

Long Island
Clinton 56
Sanders 44

Hudson Valley
Clinton 51
Sanders 49

Urban Upstate
Clinton 52
Sanders 48

Rural Upstate
Sanders 62
Clinton 38
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #17 on: April 19, 2016, 08:27:12 PM »
From Nate Cohn:

Clinton = blue
Sanders = green



Precincts where income is over $100k:
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #18 on: April 19, 2016, 08:43:29 PM »

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #19 on: April 19, 2016, 09:17:48 PM »
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/722609067575885824

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