The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Terry McAuliffe says he has “no intentions” of running for prez:

http://www.foxnews.com/transcript/2017/02/26/corey-lewandowski-on-perez-as-dnc-chair-trump-agenda-govs-mcauliffe-and-walker/

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[Mr. Morden]

At the end of this video clip, McAuliffe makes a toast to Trump, in the hopes that they can work together:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/national/trump-mcauliffe-toast-each-other-at-governors-dinner/2017/02/27/7f86345e-fc91-11e6-9b78-824ccab94435_video.html

If McAuliffe does make a run for president, I'm guessing that we'll be seeing that video again.

[Mr. Morden]

So Cuomo did end up going to the NGA after all, but he didn’t stick around long enough to meet with Trump.  He was only there on Friday and then left:

http://nypost.com/2017/02/27/cuomo-blows-off-trumps-meeting-with-governors/

In any case, Politico has a new story out about Cuomo’s 2020 ambitions:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/andrew-cuomo-new-york-2020-235403

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[Mr. Morden]

McAuliffe upping the ante on presidential speculation about himself by saying that he “might” want to be president:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/26/us/virginia-governor-trump-northam-perriello.html?_r=0

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That's about as close to "maybe" as we've gotten from anyone in the field recently except for O'Malley.  The rest of them don't even say maybe.  They just say something like "I'm focused on my current job, and it's too early to think about that."

[Mr. Morden]

The problem for Terry. What will he do for a year and a half to stay relevant?

I'm not sure why that's important.  People who are out of office for a few years are perfectly capable of being major presidential candidates.  Heck, the 2016 Democratic nominee was also unemployed, and the 2012 GOP primaries were dominated by people who'd been out of office for ages.  Gingrich had even been out of office for 14 years.

McAuliffe has a lot of problems, but that one's at the bottom of the list.

[Mr. Morden]

Conservative author Ed Klein says “his sources” tell him that Clinton is gearing up for another presidential run:

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Ed-Klein-presidential-campaign-2020/2017/02/28/id/776119/

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[Mr. Morden]

Disney CEO Bob Iger reportedly thinking about running:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/rambling-reporter/will-disneys-bob-iger-run-president-2020-hollywood-friends-are-nudging-981626

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[Mr. Morden]

Israel has become an honorary early primary state in terms of future US presidential candidates making visits there shortly before launching their candidacy.  E.g., from 2013 to 2015, 10 of the eventual 17 GOP candidates visited Israel, as did Martin O’Malley.  And Cory Booker visited there last summer.

Now it’s Cuomo’s turn:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/01/nyregion/andrew-cuomo-israel-trip.html?_r=0

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[Mr. Morden]

Update on John Kerry, who two weeks ago said that he wasn’t “ruling anything in or out":

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2017/03/01/john-kerry-lands-another-post-government-gig-visiting-distinguished-statesman-think-tank/JeAVT7OVhmb5QlfXQmrWBP/story.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Julian Castro says that a 2020 presidential run is on the table:

http://www.expressnews.com/news/news_columnists/brian_chasnoff/article/Castro-has-his-voice-back-10970274.php

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[Mr. Morden]

Gabriel Debenedetti‏ @gdebenedetti  1h1 hour ago
Who's heading back to Iowa for the third time since November 8 this weekend? Martin O'Malley.

Yeah, he just posted this on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/MartinOMalley/status/837388380124119048

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[Mr. Morden]

Brown's giving a speech tomorrow in Columbus, attacking Trump and outlining some legislative proposals.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/johnstanton/senate-democrat-to-outline-populist-economic-agenda-to-count?utm_term=.kog55lJz9v&bftw=pol#.mv5llwdxQn

Interesting.  According to Brown's Twitter feed, his speech will air on Facebook Live at around ~10:30am or so:

https://www.facebook.com/SenatorSherrodBrown/

[Mr. Morden]

Brown's giving a speech tomorrow in Columbus, attacking Trump and outlining some legislative proposals.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/johnstanton/senate-democrat-to-outline-populist-economic-agenda-to-count?utm_term=.kog55lJz9v&bftw=pol#.mv5llwdxQn

Interesting.  According to Brown's Twitter feed, his speech will air on Facebook Live at around ~10:30am or so:

https://www.facebook.com/SenatorSherrodBrown/

It's really the first sign from Brown that he's interested, right?

As far as I can tell, yes.

[Mr. Morden]

Brown's giving a speech tomorrow in Columbus, attacking Trump and outlining some legislative proposals.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/johnstanton/senate-democrat-to-outline-populist-economic-agenda-to-count?utm_term=.kog55lJz9v&bftw=pol#.mv5llwdxQn

Interesting.  According to Brown's Twitter feed, his speech will air on Facebook Live at around ~10:30am or so:

https://www.facebook.com/SenatorSherrodBrown/

It's really the first sign from Brown that he's interested, right?

As far as I can tell, yes.

Couldn't this just be part of his reelection to the Senate?

Could be, sure.  I guess the way the article is phrased "will call on Democrats...[etc., etc.]" and the focus on Trump make it sound like he's aiming for a national audience, but I don't know.  I guess it's just a question of, if you're a Democratic Senator in a swing or lean R state who's running for reelection, and with no presidential ambitions, how much do you focus on the big picture, trying to steer the direction of Democrats nationwide, vs. how much do you focus on parochial issues?  I guess if Brown is doing more of the former, then that's *something*.  But yeah, it's not like he's calling up activists in Iowa or anything like that.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the video of Brown's speech:

https://www.facebook.com/SenatorSherrodBrown/videos/vb.261478257610775/261839310908003/?type=2&theater&notif_t=live_video&notif_id=1488554898347351

He is advancing a package of policy proposals to "make hard work pay off" for the working class.  But based on watching the first half or so of it, his tone is policy-oriented and not partisan.  He only mentions Trump once in the first half of the speech, and it's to say that he agrees with Trump on trade.  So I don't see anything to indicate that this is aimed at laying the groundwork for a presidential run, as opposed to reelection for his Senate seat.

[Mr. Morden]

Senator Richard Blumenthal accidentally refers to Senator Chris Murphy as "President Murphy".

http://www.courant.com/politics/capitol-watch/hc-blumenthal-president-chris-murphy-story.html

Highly indicative that there have been conversations in the background, and there was semantic interference on the spot. I can certainly get behind a Murphy run.

I don't know.  As the story says, Blumenthal had just been talking about Trump, so having a mental mixup and saying "president" might not mean anything larger.

That said, Murphy has definitely shot up recently in my own rankings of who is most likely to run on the Dem. side.  He might even be in the top 10.  The fact that he both campaigned for Clinton in early '16 for the NH primary, and then went back there in the fall to campaign for both Clinton and Hassan was at least...something.  He seemed to throw cold water on that with his December statement that he "wouldn't consider" running for prez, but his supposed denials since them have been more vague, so he's back up on the list, IMHO.

[Mr. Morden]

While participating in a panel at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference at MIT, Nate Silver asked Mark Cuban a few questions, including whether he is going to run for president:

https://twitter.com/scott_stinson/status/838064832809156608
https://twitter.com/scott_stinson/status/838065134954229765
https://twitter.com/scott_stinson/status/838065368295960576
https://twitter.com/scott_stinson/status/838065791564140546

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Meanwhile, in the Sunday morning talk show watch, Al Franken will be on ABC’s “This Week” tomorrow morning:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

Also, Cuomo will meet with Netanyahu during his Israel trip on Sunday:

http://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2017/03/cuomo-will-meet-netanyahu-during-israel-trip-110077

[Mr. Morden]

Cuomo at the Holocaust Memorial in Jerusalem today shaking hands with Israeli president Reuven Rivlin:

[Mr. Morden]

While he's a longshot to run for president again in 2020, Lindsey Graham is on my watch list simply because he was #NeverTrump last year, he's run for president before, unlike McCain he's not going to be too old, and he's continued to air some criticisms of Trump since the election.  Anyway, I thought it was notable that today Graham came out in support of Trump's revised travel order.  Also, he's meeting with Trump for lunch tomorrow:

http://www.postandcourier.com/news/it-s-a-date-lindsey-graham-to-lunch-with-president/article_479a4c52-02c6-11e7-95f9-cbd4f886db55.html

[Mr. Morden]

While participating in a panel at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference at MIT, Nate Silver asked Mark Cuban a few questions, including whether he is going to run for president:

https://twitter.com/scott_stinson/status/838064832809156608
https://twitter.com/scott_stinson/status/838065134954229765
https://twitter.com/scott_stinson/status/838065368295960576
https://twitter.com/scott_stinson/status/838065791564140546

Here’s the transcript of this conversation:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nate-silver-and-mark-cuban-talk-a-lot-of-politics-and-a-little-basketball/

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[Mr. Morden]

Big news on the Dem. tea leaves front: We have our first cattle call of the 2020 primary season, and it's a big one.  The Center for American Progress is putting on a Democratic version of CPAC, in the form of its "Ideas Conference".  It'll be held on May 16th, and it's attracting many of the likely 2020 Dems to attend:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/democratic-party-realignment-cpac-235806

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The confirmed speakers so far:

Booker
Bullock
Garcetti
Gillibrand
Harris
Murphy
Warren

But more are expected to join the list.  In any case, all of those folks now get bumped up a couple of points on my "likelihood to run" meter.

[Mr. Morden]

Big news on the Dem. tea leaves front: We have our first cattle call of the 2020 primary season, and it's a big one.  The Center for American Progress is putting on a Democratic version of CPAC, in the form of its "Ideas Conference".  It'll be held on May 16th, and it's attracting many of the likely 2020 Dems to attend:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/democratic-party-realignment-cpac-235806

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The confirmed speakers so far:

Booker
Bullock
Garcetti
Gillibrand
Harris
Murphy
Warren

But more are expected to join the list.  In any case, all of those folks now get bumped up a couple of points on my "likelihood to run" meter.

You know this is the second DNC retreat that Bullock is going too. Seems like he might be building in-party ties for a presidential run

I take your point, though just to clarify, neither this nor the Florida event he went to are affiliated with the DNC.  The Florida one was a Democratic donor event, and this one is put on by the Center for American Progress, which is a progressive think thank / advocacy organization.

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, speaking of that David Brock donor event in Florida, one of the other attendees besides Bullock was Jeff Merkley:

http://missoulanews.bigskypress.com/IndyBlog/archives/2017/01/20/gov-steve-bullock-slated-to-speak-at-david-brock-led-democratic-conference-in-florida-on-saturday

which is worth a mention now, since he was included in Politico's long list of Senate Dems who might be thinking about a presidential run.

[Mr. Morden]

New Columbus Dispatch story on Brown, which mentions 2020:

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170309/for-democrats-sherrod-brown-is-key-voice-in-trump-era

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[Mr. Morden]

Martin O'Malley will be in DC tomorrow, participating in the Native Nations March:

https://twitter.com/MartinOMalley/status/839883230555725824