The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

A big story regarding Zuckerberg for prez….though it says that a 2024 run is seen as more likely than a 2020 run:

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/01/will-mark-zuckerberg-be-our-next-president

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[Mr. Morden]

Biden was on The View on (I think) Friday, and was asked about 2020 again.  Here’s the video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DybXhH2PKx0

Go to about the 17:10 mark to see the question being put to him.  He says that in early December when he said he was running, he was joking, and now says “I have no intention of running for president”, which is the same formulation he used about a month ago to walk back his supposed declaration of candidacy:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=233345.msg5427153#msg5427153

Of course, as I said then, “I have no intention” falls short of a Shermanesque denial.  Fastforward to the 29:45 mark on the video, and Biden is asked “You said never say never about 2020, right?”, and Biden just smiles and says nothing.

In any case, note that he talks about how he says he’s going to keep on his primary VP staffers after he leaves DC, and goes to work for the University of Delaware and the University of Pennsylvania:

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[Mr. Morden]

Cuomo tries to downplay 2020 talk:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/cuomo-2020-presidential-run-rumors-flattering-untrue-article-1.2946931

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Though again, that’s not a Shermanesque denial.  He’s once again saying that his only *current* plan is to run for reelection for governor.  But that hardly precludes the possibility of him also choosing to run for president at some point in the future, even in the middle of his next term as governor.

Meanwhile, Booker spoke this morning at a breakfast hosted by Al Sharpton’s National Action Network:

http://www.northjersey.com/story/news/new-jersey/2017/01/15/booker-join-trump-protest-groups-mlk-breakfast/96621678/

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Finally, the AP has a recap of Elizabeth Warren’s multi-pronged opposition to Trump:

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2017/01/15/warren-prepares-for-the-spotlight-as-trumps-top-democratic-foil.html

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[Mr. Morden]

And I see that Wikipedia has now stupidly moved Biden and Cuomo to the "declined candidates" category on the 2020 presidential election Wikipedia page, based on their recent "denials of interest", just like they did for Brown and Gillibrand.  All four are cases where they're really non-denials.

The pattern seems to be this:

-A potential candidate gives a non-denial, saying something like "I have no plans to run", which isn't a real denial, since almost all of them say something like that, and not "having plans" at this early stage doesn't mean anything.

-About four or five different news stories are written about the non-denial, with one of those stories usually being written by a journalist who doesn't understand how non-denials work, and so they write the story as if it's a real denial.

-Wikipedia latches onto that one story that portrays it as a real denial, and uses that as a "source" to move the candidate in question to the "declined" category.

[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand is joining the Women's March on Washington on the 21st:

https://twitter.com/SenGillibrand/status/820008482095108100

Looks like Gillibrand also marched with an Al Sharpton-led protest on Saturday:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/thousands-of-protesters-already-descending-on-dc-for-inauguration/article/2611829

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[Mr. Morden]

Julian Castro talks about his future:

http://tpr.org/post/im-going-leave-politics-alone-now-juli-n-castro-says-hud-exit#stream/0

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[Mr. Morden]

Cuomo will meet with Trump at Trump Tower on Wednesday:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/gov-cuomo-talk-donald-trump-obamacare-infrastructure-article-1.2948893

[Mr. Morden]

Tulsi Gabbard took secret trip to Syria

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/18/democratic-rep-gabbard-makes-secret-trip-to-syria/

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Ummm....she's already on her way back to the US.  Not sure how commenting on this would impact security.

[Mr. Morden]

Tulsi Gabbard took secret trip to Syria

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/18/democratic-rep-gabbard-makes-secret-trip-to-syria/

Apparently, she surprised Congressional leaders by not telling them she was going:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/tulsi-gabbard-secret-syria-trip-233762

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[Mr. Morden]

At some point, I may go through all the leadership PACs for each of the potential 2020 Democratic presidential candidates.  E.g., Booker, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, and Warren all have leadership PACs…

Booker: “CoryPAC”, contributed $171,000 to Democratic candidates this cycle
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgot.php?cmte=C00497131&cycle=2016

Gillibrand: “Off the Sidelines”, contributed $565,000 to Democratic candidates this cycle
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgot.php?cmte=C00525600&cycle=2016

Klobuchar: “Follow the North Star Fund”, contributed $167,500 to Democratic candidates this cycle
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgot.php?cmte=C00431874&cycle=2016

Warren: “PAC for a Level Playing Field”, contributed $190,000 to Democratic candidates this cycle
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgot.php?cmte=C00540195&cycle=2016

Gillibrand’s PAC is different in that 1) it only donates to women candidates, and 2) most of its money goes to House candidates.  The Booker, Klobuchar, and Warren PACs mostly donated to Senate candidates, with just a few token House candidates included as well.  The Booker, Gillibrand, and Klobuchar PACs all donated to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign as well, while Warren’s PAC didn’t.

*bump*

Apparently, Gillibrand's PAC actually has a podcast:

http://offthesidelines.org/the-hub/podcasts/

Looks like the podcast consists of Gillibrand talking to various people about assorted issues.  In August, she even spoke with possible 2020 rival Amy Klobuchar.

[Mr. Morden]

The WaPo has a story on the 2020 Dems in the Senate:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/standing-behind-trump-on-friday-the-future-of-the-democratic-party/2017/01/20/80a4e04e-de94-11e6-ad42-f3375f271c9c_story.html?utm_term=.739f151fafe6

One piece of info in there that I didn't know: Like Gillibrand, Harris will also be participating in the Women's March on Washington today.

[Mr. Morden]

One piece of info in there that I didn't know: Like Gillibrand, Harris will also be participating in the Women's March on Washington today.

Doesn't look like Klobuchar is participating in the march herself, but she did stop to meet with some of the marchers:

[Mr. Morden]

Booker: “I am not open to being president”:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/21/politics/cory-booker-president-2020/

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And he continues to have a facial expression indicating that he's either worried or needs to use the bathroom quickly:

[Mr. Morden]

Sunday morning talk show watch: Sanders is on Face the Nation this morning:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/hillary-clinton-plans-future-234018

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[Mr. Morden]

Booker: “I am not open to being president”:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/21/politics/cory-booker-president-2020/

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And he continues to have a facial expression indicating that he's either worried or needs to use the bathroom quickly:

I know it's unreasonable and doesn't make sense, but I don't trust bald people. Therefore, I don't trust Booker.

Also, Booker still likely to run I think; even if he says he's not open to it.

I don't think Booker intended to make some kind of Shermanesque denial here.  This isn't like with Franken and Kaine, where they made a calculated decision to rule out a 2020 run (which may or may not be sincere, but it's what they were trying to say).  In Booker's case, I think he just kind of fumbled into a denial in the course of trying to say something like "the stakes right now are so high that we shouldn't be talking about 2020".

[Mr. Morden]

Politico has more on Booker 2020 today:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/cory-booker-senate-2020-233982

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Meanwhile, here’s Politico on Cruz putting his presidential ambitions on hold—no indication that he’s planning some kind of primary challenge to Trump in 2020, or anything like that:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/meet-the-new-ted-cruz-214681

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[Mr. Morden]

Hickenlooper’s in Switzerland for the Davos summit, and is asked about future plans:

http://www.businessinsider.com/colorado-gov-john-hickenlooper-interview-2017-1

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Meanwhile, Bullock was in Florida over the weekend, attending a David Brock event:

http://missoulanews.bigskypress.com/IndyBlog/archives/2017/01/20/gov-steve-bullock-slated-to-speak-at-david-brock-led-democratic-conference-in-florida-on-saturday

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[Mr. Morden]

Politico’s “Democrats in the Wilderness” story has this great cover art:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/democrats-trump-administration-wilderness-comeback-revival-214650

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[Mr. Morden]

Jennifer Epstein ‏@jeneps  6m6 minutes ago
 Julian Castro on 2020 run for Dem nomination, on MSNBC: "The truth is that I'm never going to take anything off the table"

Uh oh, Mike Gravel warned us years ago what "nothing off the table" is code for:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBcMUZAXMW4&t=2m15s

I fear that Castro is planning to nuke Booker and Warren.

[Mr. Morden]

It'll be Gillibrand, she's the only Dem that had voted against all Trump nominees.

She didn't vote against Nikki Haley:

link

[Mr. Morden]

Zuckerberg says he does not plan to run for president:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/01/25/mark-zuckerberg-shoots-rumours-presidential-ambitions/

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Meanwhile, some are suggesting that Sheryl Sandberg does:

link

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[Mr. Morden]

Fun fact: Sandberg is the widow of Dave Goldberg, who died at the young age of 47 back in 2015.  Goldberg was the CEO of SurveyMonkey, which did some polling for NBC during the 2016 election cycle.

[Mr. Morden]

O'Malley heading back to Iowa over the weekend:

http://www.lakeexpo.com/news/politics/o-malley-to-campaign-for-kurth-in-special-election-race/article_ccc4105b-369f-5981-bbfc-b90125985107.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Julian Castro says he won’t run for anything in 2018:

http://www.kens5.com/news/politics/julian-castro-returns-to-san-antonio-says-hes-not-running-in-2018/392251043

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More here:

https://www.texastribune.org/2017/01/24/castro-brothers-confront-trump-era/

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