The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

This is from about a month ago, but it doesn’t look like it was posted here.  Gavin Newsom doesn’t sound enthusiastic about a presidential run:

http://www.recode.net/2016/11/15/13642138/gavin-newsom-california-governor-president-job

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[Mr. Morden]

More Cuomo talk:

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/jasonhopkins/2016/12/14/is-gov-andrew-cuomo-angling-for-a-2020-presidential-run-n2259793

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[Mr. Morden]

This is probably not about 2020, but I figured it was worth mentioning:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/311838-clinton-thanks-supporters-in-year-end-message

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[Mr. Morden]

Klobuchar is touring former Soviet republics this week, on a trip with John McCain and Lindsey Graham:

http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-mccain-permanent-us-troops-in-estonia-rather-than-rotation-2016-12?r=UK&IR=T

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[Mr. Morden]

I can't say who will run in 2020 but, assuming he wins the California Gubernatorial in 2018 and does a good job as Governor, Gavin Newsom could be a strong Democratic candidate for 2024 (assuming Trump wins in 2020) or 2028.

As I noted upthread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=233345.msg5447343#msg5447343

Newsom called President of the United States "the most miserable job in the world".  So publicly, at least, he doesn't seem interested.  Whether that's just for show or not, I don't know.

[Mr. Morden]

Warren is already making fundraising pitches for 2018 Senate Dems:

link

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[Mr. Morden]

Warren is already making fundraising pitches for 2018 Senate Dems:

link

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Looks like she's pitching for Hirono too:

http://www.civilbeat.org/2017/01/warren-makes-pitch-for-hirono/

[Mr. Morden]

Could be relevant.

Sarah D. Wire ‏@sarahdwire  12m12 minutes ago
.@KamalaHarris picks former Clinton campaign spox Lily Adams (@adamslily) as her communications director.

According to this:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/hillary-clinton-campaign-staff-growing-219638

it looks like she was the Clinton campaign's spokeswoman for Iowa (during the IA caucus campaign), then moved to NY when the race went national:

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[Mr. Morden]

And now Mark Zuckerberg....

http://www.newsweek.com/mark-zuckerberg-president-2020-facebook-white-house-538386?rx=us

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[Mr. Morden]

Booker does a 1 on 1 with WMUR's Political Director.

Josh McElveen (WMUR) ‏@JoshWMUR  35m35 minutes ago
1on1 with @CoryBooker on GOP majority, "They're the dog that caught the car, they don't know what to do" #nhpolitics

I know that you know this, but for the benefit of anyone who doesn't, WMUR is a New Hampshire TV station.  Looks like McElveen was in DC to cover the new Congress, but still interesting that Booker was willing to do an interview with him.  I presume that Booker doesn't normally do interviews with TV stations from Rhode Island or Vermont.  New Hampshire's early state status is of course a factor.

https://twitter.com/JoshWMUR/status/816708135155073024

[Mr. Morden]

Biden’s post-VP plans:

http://www.startribune.com/apnewsbreak-biden-plans-university-of-delaware-partnership/409700435/

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In other news, Biden hearts early primary state South Carolina:

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article124446934.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Dan Malloy has been reelected as chair of the DGA:

http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-malloy-dga-chair-again-20161205-story.html

I don’t know if Malloy actually has presidential ambitions, but DGA chair is a job that gives you an excuse to travel around the country raising money, and many past DGA and RGA chairs have gone on to run for president.

Malloy has made several trips to both Iowa and New Hampshire in the past year and a half. 

More Malloy talk here:

http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-malloy-third-term-20161213-story.html

Apparently, he actually might try running for a third term for governor.  Granted, his job approval is in the 20s, so this seems like a rather risky gambit.

Also talking national issues...

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[Mr. Morden]

Here’s a lengthy story on Tulsi Gabbard:

http://www.midweek.com/tulsi/

At the end of the story, it says that she and her husband (they were married in 2015) want to have children.  Presumably this may impact the chances of her running for national office in 2020.  Also:

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[Mr. Morden]

Here are some events over the next few months to watch for possible appearances by 2020 presidential candidates:

Jan. 21: Iowa’s Inaugural ball in DC: http://www.iowasociety.com
This has been attended by aspiring presidential candidates in the past.  However, since Trump is the guy being inaugurated, looks like this may only draw Republicans, as all of the featured guests are Iowa Republicans.  So probably no 2020 Dems this time.  But maybe Amash or Cruz will show up…

Feb. 22-25: CPAC: http://cpac.conservative.org
Presumably only for Republicans.  And again, Trump will presumably draw few if any high profile primary challenges when/if he runs for reelection, so maybe not so exciting this time.

Feb. 23-26: Winter DNC meeting in Atlanta: http://demrulz.org/news/dnc-elections-feb-2017-faqs
This is when the DNC will elect its new chair, and fill other positions.  It’s possible some high profile Dems, maybe including 2020ers, will show up to speak.

March 2017 (exact date TBD): Gridiron Club Dinner
Aspiring presidential candidates are often invited to this.  Last year, Nikki Haley, Joe Biden, and both Castro brothers were all there.

April 2017 (exact date TBD): Shaheen-McIntyre fundraising dinner in NH: http://www.nh1.com/news/2020-watch-nhdp-to-hold-shaheen-mcintyre-dinner-in-april/

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[Mr. Morden]

Btw, since I just posted a Tulsi Gabbard article a few posts ago, I might as well mention that I did find that Gabbard did make at least one Iowa visit within the last two years: She was there in July 2015 for the Polk County Democrat Women’s Event:

https://www.facebook.com/events/795882000509435/

[Mr. Morden]

Surprising no one, Warren announces that she's running for reelection in 2018:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2017/01/06/elizabeth-warren-announces-she-running-for-election-massachusetts/e7916Kf6ncAFajK7JD7SMO/story.html?event=event25

As the story notes, this doesn't really make her less likely to run for president in 2020, as sitting Senators run for president all the time.  It's easy enough to become an absentee Senator and spend all your time campaigning rather than legislating.

[Mr. Morden]

Kerry doesn't rule out a run.

Hey, he'll "only" be 76 on election day 2020.  Younger than both Biden and Sanders! 

[Mr. Morden]

Sunday morning talk show watch: Booker will be on Face the Nation tomorrow:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/08/politics/hillary-clinton-new-york-neera-tanden/

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[Mr. Morden]

I don’t think has been mentioned here yet, but this story mentions that when Castro leaves his post at HUD this month, and goes back to San Antonio, he’s going to work on writing his memoir:

http://iowapublicradio.org/post/huds-castro-worries-housing-rule-could-be-rolled-back#stream/0

So we have that to look forward to.  Digging into the internet memory hole, it looks like he signed a book deal way back in 2012:

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/nov/14/entertainment/la-et-jc-julian-castro-gets-a-book-deal-20121114

In April 2014, the NYT said that his book was scheduled to come out in 2015:

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/16/us/politics/texas-twins-campaign-but-they-arent-sure-for-what.html?_r=0

but that was just before he was picked by Obama to lead HUD.  So I guess the book never came out?  Because I can’t find it on Amazon.  I guess HUD derailed his book plans for a while, but maybe we’ll get it later this year.

[Mr. Morden]

Sherrod Brown, Amy Klobuchar, and Claire McCaskill are all asked about running for president in 2020:

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/313666-cory-booker-kicks-off-2020-maneuvering-in-the-senate

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[Mr. Morden]

Sunday morning talk show watch: Sanders will be on ABC's "This Week" on Sunday:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEWS_SHOWS?SITE=AP

[Mr. Morden]

Gillibrand is joining the Women's March on Washington on the 21st:

https://twitter.com/SenGillibrand/status/820008482095108100

And it looks like Warren will be participating in a parallel "Women's March" event in Boston:

http://bostonwomensmarchforamerica.org/senator-warren-ag-healey-mayor-walsh-local-advocates-join-boston-march-justice-equal-rights/

[Mr. Morden]

Martin O'Malley speaks at the Utah Democratic Party's annual gala, and is asked about 2020:

http://www.sltrib.com/home/4817948-155/former-presidential-candidate-omalley-tells-utah

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O'Malley's actually rare among 2020 Dems in that he's publicly admitted that he's a "maybe".  Ask most of the others, especially those currently holding public office like Warren or Booker, and their answer is that "it's too soon" to even ask questions like that.  Which also isn't a denial, but saying "maybe" at least acknowledges that it's something you're thinking about.

Also note here that O'Malley is continuing his pattern of using more hyperbolic language to describe Trump than most of the other 2020ers tend to use:

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As I said in the thread on this, most Democratic governors or Democrats in Congress aren't using the "f-word" (fascist) wrt Trump.  But O'Malley does it often these days.

[Mr. Morden]

I think it's pretty clear that O'Malley, Cuomo, and Booker are in. Klobuchar probably as well. Not sure about anyone else.

I always find it hilarious when they say they're not thinking about it yet.  As I said upthread, last week Klobuchar said (re: the 2020 presidential election) “I’m not thinking about that at all.”

Yeah, right.