The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently someone actually started a Draft Chris Murphy 2020 PAC:

http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/politico-influence/2016/12/navigators-hires-transitions-keiser-commerce-committees-orlando-to-bakerhostetler-217800

[Mr. Morden]

Biden talked 2020 again this morning:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/biden-president-2020_us_584d68c3e4b04c8e2bb04251

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[Mr. Morden]

Reid Epstein of the WSJ says few politicos actually believe Biden is going to run in 2020, and speculates that he’s mainly trying to remain “relevant”:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/12/12/why-joe-biden-keeps-mentioning-a-2020-run/

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Biden hinted towards this explanation in his interview with Tapper:

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The post linked above also mentions’ some O’Malley news (re: his aborted DNC chair bid) that I hadn't heard before:

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[Mr. Morden]

The Daily News talks about Cuomo’s woes, including his corruption trial:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/lovett-gov-cuomo-political-future-remains-uncertain-article-1.2907396

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On whether he will actually run for reelection:

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[Mr. Morden]

At some point, I may go through all the leadership PACs for each of the potential 2020 Democratic presidential candidates.  E.g., Booker, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, and Warren all have leadership PACs…

Booker: “CoryPAC”, contributed $171,000 to Democratic candidates this cycle
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgot.php?cmte=C00497131&cycle=2016

Gillibrand: “Off the Sidelines”, contributed $565,000 to Democratic candidates this cycle
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgot.php?cmte=C00525600&cycle=2016

Klobuchar: “Follow the North Star Fund”, contributed $167,500 to Democratic candidates this cycle
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgot.php?cmte=C00431874&cycle=2016

Warren: “PAC for a Level Playing Field”, contributed $190,000 to Democratic candidates this cycle
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgot.php?cmte=C00540195&cycle=2016

Gillibrand’s PAC is different in that 1) it only donates to women candidates, and 2) most of its money goes to House candidates.  The Booker, Klobuchar, and Warren PACs mostly donated to Senate candidates, with just a few token House candidates included as well.  The Booker, Gillibrand, and Klobuchar PACs all donated to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign as well, while Warren’s PAC didn’t.

Senate candidates who got donations from all four of these PACs:

Tammy Duckworth (IL)
Kamala Harris (CA)
Maggie Hassan (NH)
Catherine Cortez Masto (NV)
Kate McGinty (PA)
Patty Murray (WA)

In early state (IA/NH) action, Warren’s PAC was the only one to donate to Patty Judge (IA).  And Gillibrand’s PAC gave to House candidates Ann McLane Kuster (NH), Carol Shea-Porter (NH), and Monica Vernon (IA).

To add to the above, while I don’t think de Blasio has a PAC as such, he does have a non-profit whose sole purpose seems to be promoting Bill de Blasio on the national stage:

http://www.politico.com/states/new-york/city-hall/story/2016/07/progressive-agenda-committee-spends-418-298-but-has-no-staff-and-didnt-do-anything-103906

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Will be interesting to see if this group does anything in the next ~2+ years.

[Mr. Morden]

Back in 2012, Tom Vilsack floated the idea of running for president in 2016:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3536958#msg3536958

but then promptly dropped the matter, before making a 2016 cameo appearance as a Clinton VP short lister.

So it's with a heavy heart that I report that Vilsack isn't talking about the presidency anymore these days:

http://farmfutures.com/story-secretary-vilsack-taking-final-lap-0-150533

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Not Shermanesque though. 

[Mr. Morden]

Elizabeth Warren gets spot on Armed Services Committee

I was just about to post this. This is good news.

Can someone explain to me what makes this so politically significant?

US Senators who run for president almost always try to get on either the Foreign Relations Committee or the Armed Services Committee before they run for prez.  It gives them a chance to delve into foreign policy while still in the Senate.

E.g., of the four sitting Republican Senators who ran for prez this year, all of them were on one of those two committees…

Armed Services: Cruz, Graham
Foreign Relations: Paul, Rubio

Though it's certainly not a hard and fast rule.  On the Democratic side, Sanders also ran for prez this year, and he isn't on either of those committees.

[Mr. Morden]

And now Booker is joining the Foreign Relations Committee:

http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/310586-booker-to-join-foreign-relations-committee

[Mr. Morden]

More analysis of the new Booker and Warren committee assignments:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2016/12/16/daily-202-democrats-with-2020-ambitions-finagle-the-committee-assignments-that-boosted-clinton-and-kaine/585349cae9b69b36fcfeaf44/?utm_term=.0d85eddda5ab

[Mr. Morden]

I already posted a thread about O’Malley’s interview with Alan Colmes, but should also mention the part that’s relevant for the big “Will O’Malley run again in 2020?” question.  Colmes asked O’Malley what he intends to do with his life next, and here’s the answer (this starts towards the end, from around the 11:25 mark):

http://video.foxnews.com/v/5250156109001/?#sp=show-clips

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[Mr. Morden]

New interview with Warren here:

http://www.wcvb.com/article/on-the-record-will-elizabeth-warren-run-for-re-election/8512260

Skip to about the 3:40 mark.  Warren is asked whether she’s going to run for reelection in 2018, and she declines to answer, saying “Today’s not the day to make an announcement”, but also “I love my job.”

Then she’s asked about running for president in 2020, and she says it’s “not on her radar screen”, which again, is not really a Shermanesque denial.

EDIT: Also, I hadn't really noticed it before, but Warren's voice is vaguely similar to that of Peggy Noonan.

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s a dispatch from O’Malley’s trip to Iowa this weekend:

http://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/government/politics/martin-omalley-campaigns-for-jim-lykam-in-davenport-20161218

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[Mr. Morden]

Clinton and Kaine are holding a party to thank their big $ donors....which may or may not be related to one or both of them thinking about 2020:

http://pagesix.com/2016/12/05/hillary-clinton-throwing-party-to-thank-millionaire-donors/

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Here's a dispatch from that event:

http://pagesix.com/2016/12/16/hillary-clintons-holiday-party-like-a-wake/

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[Mr. Morden]

Regarding the committee assignments...looks like Kamala Harris didn't get assigned to either Armed Services or Foreign Affairs, but she did make it onto the Select Committee on Intelligence, so I guess she can argue that that at least gives her some "national security" cred:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-kamala-harris-nabs-national-security-1482178585-htmlstory.html

[Mr. Morden]

Cuomo again asked if he’s going to run for president, and deflects the question with “I’m running for governor”:

http://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/270341/cuomo-on-2020-plans-im-running-for-governor-in-2018/

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Meanwhile, Michelle Obama reiterates that she’s not going to run for prez:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/michelle-obama-oprah-winfrey-cbs-interview-not-run-barack-obama-2020-first-lady-donald-trump-a7486151.html

[Mr. Morden]

I posted this in another thread -

   
Booker & Warren take committee assignments to boost foreign policy for 2020 run

Already discussed in this thread last week:

Elizabeth Warren gets spot on Armed Services Committee

And now Booker is joining the Foreign Relations Committee:

http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/310586-booker-to-join-foreign-relations-committee

[Mr. Morden]

Addendum to this list of early primary state visits this year: I guess, in addition to campaigning in NH, Warren also campaigned for both Clinton and Masto in Nevada in early November:

http://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2016/10/30/elizabeth-warren-campaign-wednesday-northern-nevada/93013968/

It's not totally clear that Nevada will still be an early caucus state in 2020, but it might be.

[Mr. Morden]

Hmmm...so if Murphy isn't actually interested in running for president, why did he campaign for Clinton in the New Hampshire primary, and then campaigned again in New Hampshire this fall for both Clinton and Hassan?  I guess it's just because New Hampshire's the nearest swing state for someone living in Connecticut?

[Mr. Morden]

So I think Wikipedia is being led astray again on what counts as a “denial”.  Here’s an excerpt from a Dec. 4th story that Wikipedia is using to claim that Gillibrand has already ruled out a 2020 presidential run:

http://observer.com/2016/12/kirsten-gillibrand-wants-more-federal-funds-to-protect-mosques-and-synagogues/

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The text of the story says “she said today she’s definitely not running”.  But the actual quote they give says nothing of the kind.  She says she’s running for reelection for Senate, but that hardly precludes her also running for president in 2020.  This is just the standard “non-denial” line that all the candidates give.  Yet the article takes that to be a real denial, and Wikipedia takes them seriously.

[Mr. Morden]

Here are Biden’s post-VP plans:

http://thehill.com/homenews/311297-biden-heading-to-university-of-pennsylvania-report

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[Mr. Morden]

A good chance that this is just be for his mayoral reelection race, but looks like de Blasio (like Cuomo!) is hiring an aide with presidential campaign level experience:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/16/nyregion/mayor-shakes-up-media-operation-again.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Here is a recap of Kander's speech before Progress Iowa:

http://iowastartingline.com/2016/12/21/in-iowa-jason-kander-pitches-path-forward-for-democrats/

[Mr. Morden]

Warren's former chief of staff is being named the DSCC executive director:

http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/12/former_us_sen_elizabeth_warren.html

Will be interesting to see to what extent Warren herself gets involved in the 2018 midterms, beyond her own reelection race.

[Mr. Morden]

Klobuchar says she’s running for reelection for her Senate seat in 2018, ruling out a run for governor that year:

http://www.startribune.com/klobuchar-will-run-again-for-senate-rules-herself-out-for-governor-s-race/408163356/

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If Klobuchar had run for governor, it probably would have meant no presidential run in 2020, since she would have had to start campaigning for president just a few months after taking on her new job as governor.  But since she’s just going to continue on with her existing job as Senator, a 2020 presidential run would seem to be very much on the table.

[Mr. Morden]

Yet another non-denial from Gillibrand:

http://www.timesunion.com/local/article/U-S-Sen-Gillibrand-will-push-agenda-despite-10817816.php

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