Cruz will control Lousiana delegation despite TRUMP win

[Mr. Morden]

This is only going to effect the 2nd ballot at a contested convention?

No, there are two different things going on here:

1) Cruz recruiting “ninja delegates” among the Trump delegates.  These are people who are pledged to support Trump on the first ballot, but may abandon him if it goes to a second ballot.

2) Cruz recruiting support from unpledged delegates, as well as delegates pledged to candidates who’ve dropped out of the race, who may now be allowed to jump ship even on the first ballot.

Because of the particulars of Louisiana’s delegate selection process, several of their delegates go to the convention unpledged to any candidate.  They can vote for whoever they want on the first ballot.  For Louisiana’s at-large delegates, for example, Erc has this count:

Louisiana Results

At-Large:

Trump 12 - Cruz 11 - Uncommitted 5

Those “uncommitted” delegates can vote for whoever they want, even on the first ballot.  I guess there were also some Rubio delegates at the CD level, because the WSJ article says this:

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In some states, Rubio delegates are pledged to vote for him on the first ballot even if he’s suspended his campaign, but in other states they’re not.

[Mr. Morden]

So, the ones from Lousiana that Cruz is bragging about are actually pledged delegates? (I can't read the article due to a paywall)

You can read any WSJ article by simply googling the headline, and then clicking on the link.  That gets you access without paying any $.

Anyway, to answer your question, like I said in my last post, Cruz is recruiting unpledged delegates plus delegates from candidates who've dropped out who are now allowed to vote for him on the first ballot.  But in addition to that, he's recruiting Trump delegates who have to vote for Trump on the first ballot, but can defect on later ballots.

As I posted elsewhere the other day: Cruz's role in this campaign is rather ironic.  Cruz has clashed with the "party establishment" because of his procedural extremism.  He agrees with the rest of the GOP caucus in Congress on policy, but disagrees on tactics.  He wants to use filibusters, holds on nominations, and government shutdowns far more aggressively than they do.  And he calls them sellouts when they won't join him in shutting down the government over unrelated issues.  That's why they hate him.

But now he's in a position where his "procedural extremism" is going to be used to try to block a Trump nomination, with the "party establishment" likely cheering him on.

[Mr. Morden]

Thank you for your comprehensive summary.

Another question from ignorance.
Do the delegates have to get to the floor of the convention to vote?
What happens if delegates suddenly get food poisoning and have to stay in their rooms celebrating Trumps defeat?

I believe each state goes in with some "alternate delegates" who can sub in for one of the regular delegates if something happens to them.  I presume they're also pledged to vote for the same candidate on the first ballot as the sick delegate they're subbing in for.

What if the alternate delegates are all sick too?  I don't know the rules that well.  You'll have to ask Erc that one. 

[Mr. Morden]

The implications of Trump missing out on the nomination when he is close to 1237 will cause the Universe itself to tear apart.

Electrons will disassociate from their respective protons, and the fabric of reality will dissolve if Trump has a plurality of votes yet is cheated out of the nomination by 'Lyin' Ted'.

To keep the peace, the republican delegates will be pretty keen to make sure that Donald does not fly off as an independent.

That result would hand the Presidency to Hillary Clinton for 8 years.

Stranger things have happened.

Stranger things than the Universe tearing itself apart?  No, I don't think stranger things than that have happened.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Cruz and Kasich are also working the South Carolina delegation, all of whom will have to vote for Trump on the first ballot, but would be free to defect on subsequent ballots:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/south-carolina-delegates-convention-221253

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