Kasich may control the GOP nomination in a sense that's distinct form the one discussed by Trende: If no one has a delegate majority, and Kasich has the third largest number of delegates after Trump and Cruz (he's still behind Rubio now, but presumably he'll catch up soon enough), then the nomination may come down to which of Cruz or Trump gets Kasich's backing, perhaps as their VP. Not that Kasich's delegates would be bound to follow him in such a circumstance, but Cruz getting Kasich's backing and joining him on the ticket might make it more palatable for delegates to go against the "plurality choice" in Trump, if his plurality is eclipsed by two other candidates whose combined votes outnumber his.
Isn't that a rather big "if?" I take your point however, that if the if is met, that might provide enough of a fig leaf to substantially mitigate the bite of the "stolen" meme, while denying Trump the nomination,
In the popular vote, Cruz and Kasich combined already have more votes than Trump does, and I don't expect that to change any time soon, since Rubio supporters are probably more likely to switch to Cruz / Kasich than they are to Trump. Now true, this may not turn out to be the case among pledged delegates, but in the event of a contested convention where Trump goes in under 50%, the popular vote is probably going to be as much of a talking point over who has a "mandate" as anything.
