Republican MI/MS/ID/HI election results thread (first results @8pm ET)

[Mr. Morden]

At 5pm, the networks will be given access to the early exit poll numbers.  So some time between about 5:10 and 5:30pm or so, we’ll start getting news reports from them about things like what percentage of the voters are Independents, what the top issues on voters’ minds are, etc.  But they’ll withhold the topline numbers (who is winning the exit poll) until all the polls have closed in a given state.

On the exit polling, according to Edison Research’s website, they’re only covering MI and MS today:

http://www.edisonresearch.com/2016-exit-poll-coverage/

Overview of all results: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

Mississippi: polls close at 8pm ET
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ms/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/mississippi

Michigan: polls close at 8pm ET in most of the state, but at 9pm ET in some of it
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/michigan

Idaho: polls close at 10pm ET in some of the state, and 11pm ET in some of it
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/id/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/idaho

Hawaii: caucuses run from 11pm to 1am ET
CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/hi/Rep
NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/hawaii

[Mr. Morden]

National weather map:



Detroit, MI:

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Jackson, MS:

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Boise, ID:

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[Mr. Morden]

Have there been any states so far in which a majority of Republicans were against a ban on Muslims entering the country?

[Mr. Morden]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-republican-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37493407

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[Mr. Morden]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-republican-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37493407

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[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/2016-mississippi-michigan-gop-primary-live-updates-results/

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[Mr. Morden]

http://www.sfgate.com/news/politics/article/The-Latest-Trump-says-right-hand-salute-for-fun-6876743.php

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[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-republican-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37493407

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[Mr. Morden]

Anyone have a point of reference to compare this to other primaries?

New Hampshire was 55% Republicans, 42% Indies, 3% Dems.  Trump did exactly the same with both groups, but Kasich did better with Indies than Republicans, while Rubio for example was stronger with Republicans.

Virginia was 65% Republicans and 29%, Indies, 6% Dems.  In that case, Trump was 37% among Republicans and 29% among Indies, while Kasich was 15% among Indies and 6% among Republicans.  Rubio was about the same with both groups in that case.

[Mr. Morden]

Hmm, 6% Democrat? Probably more for Kasich than Trump.

And good news for Trump with those Independent numbers.

there you go again.....

Trump has dominated with Independents where ever they have been allowed to vote.

In New Hampshire, Trump did the same among Republicans and Indies.  In Virginia, he was at 37% among Republicans and 29% among Indies.  I'll have to check on other states.

And Kasich overperforms among Indies everywhere.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, just checked two more states: In Georgia, Trump did the same among Republicans and Indies.  In Alabama, he did better among Republicans than Indies.  Is there a state where Trump did better with Indies than Republicans?

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

Of close we'll have a projection at the top of the hour.  God, Wolf Blitzer, as always, shut your piehole.

It won't just be a projection.  It'll be a "major" projection.

[Mr. Morden]

I would like to see CNN make a "minor" projection.

[Mr. Morden]

Mississippi exit poll topline #s (if my math is right):

Trump 45%
Cruz 35.5%
Rubio 9%
Kasich 7.5%

[Mr. Morden]

Mississippi exit poll topline #s (if my math is right):

Trump 45%
Cruz 35.5%
Rubio 9%
Kasich 7.5%

CNN has Trump at 49%, with Cruz at 36% and Rubio at 9%.

Not if you look at their website:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ms/

Trump is 49% among men and 41% among women, which means 45% total.

[Mr. Morden]

Mississippi exit poll hypothetical 2-man race:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ms/Rep

Trump 49%
Cruz 44%

Trump 60%
Rubio 29%

[Mr. Morden]

Mississippi exit poll:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ms/Rep

suburbs:
Trump 39%
Cruz 37%

rural areas:
Trump 50%
Cruz 36%

Jackson/Delta:
Trump 52%
Cruz 32%

Southeast:
Trump 44%
Cruz 34%

Northeast:
Trump 43%
Cruz 40%

[Mr. Morden]

Michigan exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/mi/Rep

Trump 36
Cruz 26
Kasich 25.5
Rubio 9

[Mr. Morden]

Michigan exit poll toplines (if my math is right):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/mi/Rep

Trump 36
Cruz 26
Kasich 25.5
Rubio 9

Sorry, it's actually:

Trump 36
Cruz 26
Kasich 24
Rubio 9

[Mr. Morden]

Education gap in the Michigan exit poll:

college graduates:
Kasich 30%
Trump 27%

non-college graduates:
Trump 44%
Kasich 26%

Satisfied if [candidate name] wins the nomination? (% yes/no)
Cruz 55/42% for +13%
Trump 50/47% for +3%
Rubio 47/48% for -1%

hypothetical 2-man race:

Cruz 46%
Trump 37%

Rubio 44%
Trump 43%

Is [candidate name] honest and trustworthy? (% yes/no)
Cruz 57/37% for +20%
Rubio 53/39% for +14%
Trump 47/50% for -3%

Who ran the most unfair campaign?
Trump 44%
Cruz 22%
Rubio 15%
Kasich 5%

[Mr. Morden]

More Michigan exit poll:

suburbs:
Trump 36%
Kasich 26%
Cruz 24%

rural areas:
Trump 36%
Cruz 30%
Kasich 18%

Wayne: sample size too small
Oakland/Macomb: Trump +13 over Kasich
Southeast: Trump +22 over Cruz
Southwest: Cruz +13 over Kasich
N. Central / U.P.: Trump +20 over Cruz