Republican Nevada Caucus results thread (8pm-midnight ET)

[Mr. Morden]

Nevada Republican caucus is today, though the exact timing varies from county to county (more on that shortly).

CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/nv/Rep
AP: link
New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/nevada
Nevada Republican Party: http://nevadagop.org/nevada-republican-presidential-caucus-results/

For most of the state, the caucus begins at 5pm Pacific (8pm Eastern).  The latest they go is 9pm Pacific (12am Eastern) According to these:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxBkEnEMmFz5OWdkblRYLUdUWGc/view
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxBkEnEMmFz5dG8yUFNON3psZEE/view
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxBkEnEMmFz5N0tRczUzeVJXQm8/view

the caucus times are as follows (all times Pacific):

Lincoln: 5-7pm
Pershing: 5:30-7:30pm
Esmeralda: 5-8pm
Eureka, Storey: 5:30-8pm
Washoe: 6-8:30pm
Clark, Carson City, Churchill, Douglas, Elko, Humboldt, Lander, Mineral, White Pine: 5-9pm
Lyon: 5:30-9pm
Nye: 6-9pm

So do we get the results at the “ending times” listed for each county?  That’s unclear.  For example, here’s the schedule for Clark County:

http://clarkcounty.gop/caucus

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[PPP = presidential preference poll.]

By saying that PPP “polls open” and “polls close”, does that mean that, unlike in Iowa, voters can just walk in, cast their ballot, and walk out any time between 5pm and 8:30pm?  As opposed to having to be there by a certain time or the doors close, and then all voting at once?  It’s not clear to me.

Furthermore, according to this:

http://www.nevadagopcaucus.org/what-are-caucuses-.html

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So then, why do so many of these counties schedule 3 or 4 hours for it?  Are they going to take much less time than the scheduled time?  I don’t know.  I guess we’ll find out.

[Mr. Morden]

What kind of nonsense is this?

Trump has called the caucus system "dangerous":

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/donald-trump-nevada-caucuses-219654?lo=ap_b3

I'll also mention this, about how the caucus results will be reported:

Here’s the memo that’s being circulated about the AP’s reporting of results for the caucus:

link

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[Mr. Morden]

So does that mean we won't get results until midnight?

As I tried to explain in the OP, I'm confused about how it's going to work.  The counties have different ending points.  Lincoln County ends first, at 7pm Pacific / 10pm Eastern.  Some of the others go as late as 9pm Pacific / 12am Eastern.  So maybe we get our first results at 10pm Eastern?  And yet, some of these counties are scheduling this thing to take 3 or 4 hours, whereas the writeup on the Nevada GOP page says that in "most precincts" it shouldn't take more than an hour.  So does that mean that they'll wrap things up early and give us results a couple of hours earlier than scheduled in some cases?  Beats me.

[Mr. Morden]

Heard on the Rachel Maddow Show last night that his will probably be the last year Nevada is early on the schedule for the Republican side. Good news!

That's what many are expecting, but nothing's been decided yet re: the 2020 primary calendar, so we're a long way from knowing for sure.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, here’s what I’ve been able to figure out about TV coverage.  CNN is doing their South Carolina Democratic town hall from 8pm - 10pm Eastern.  Immediately after that, they start with their Nevada caucus coverage.

Meanwhile, both Fox News Channel and MSNBC are not starting any NV caucus night coverage until 11pm Eastern:

http://www.foxnews.com/fnctv/
http://www.locatetv.com/listings/msnbc

I guess they’re not expecting much of anything in terms of results to be out before then.  Though they can always incorporate coverage of the caucuses into their regular primetime programming.

C-Span has coverage scheduled to begin at midnight:

http://www.c-span.org/schedule/

but they also mention “Ted Cruz caucus night speech”.  I knew that he was planning on staying in Nevada later than the other candidates, but maybe he’s the only one staying there late enough for a “victory” speech?

[Mr. Morden]

Do the doors close at the caucus start times or are they open throughout so anyone can come in and participate?

The way the Clark County agenda is worded ("polls open" and "polls close") makes it sound like it might be the latter, but I've looked high and low for a decent explanation of the process, and haven't found anything.  Anyone want to pretend to be a Nevada Republican voter, and call or email the Nevada Republican Party to ask for information?

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/702240639128219649

Jon Ralston - Turnout is YUUUUUUUGE

We're still hours away from this thing starting.  Turnout isn't huge yet.  That's just a prediction.

[Mr. Morden]

Do the doors close at the caucus start times or are they open throughout so anyone can come in and participate?

The way the Clark County agenda is worded ("polls open" and "polls close") makes it sound like it might be the latter, but I've looked high and low for a decent explanation of the process, and haven't found anything.  Anyone want to pretend to be a Nevada Republican voter, and call or email the Nevada Republican Party to ask for information?

The NV GOP's website's explanation for a caucus seems to imply that it's structured like Iowa- first the party business is taken care of, then the county delegates are elected, then supporters of each candidate get to speak, then everybody votes, and then the results are counted:

http://www.nevadagopcaucus.org/what-are-caucuses-.html

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I guess Clark County's schedule means that they'll let people vote when they sign in (or maybe just on their way out if they have to leave early), even if they caucus as a whole doesn't vote until the last part

The process described by the Nevada GOP still seems difficult for me to reconcile with the Clark County schedule.  The Clark County schedule makes it sound like you can vote at any time during a ~3.5 hour window.  So I'm confused about whether you really need to be in attendance for the entire thing.  If it's allowed to show up late, then I guess they have to stick to that schedule...keep the "polls open" until 8:30, because someone could always come in at the last minute.  But if you have to be in the room by a certain time (say, 6pm), then they could potentially get through the process very quickly in some precincts, and we could potentially start to have results much earlier than expected.  I just don't get why they have a schedule that takes like ~3.5 hours, and then tell us that "For most precincts, the whole process takes about 30-60 minutes."

Also, if some of these precincts are really starting at 5 or 5:30 or so, and you actually have to be there by then, then that's rather limiting on turnout, given a normal work schedule.

[Mr. Morden]

Are we going to have an entrance poll for this?

I don't know for sure, but they had one in both 2008 and 2012, so I'd assume so.  No idea what time they'll release the entrance poll.  Maybe not until midnight Eastern time.

[Mr. Morden]

The Nevada GOP says this about people with recording devices:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/02/nevada-voters-prohibited-recording-caucuses-219693?lo=ap_a1

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Not clear if that applies to the media as well.

[Mr. Morden]

POLLS ARE NOW OPEN (in most of the state)

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/702297470290653184

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[Mr. Morden]

So, when can we realistically expect to start seeing results?

Probably close to 10

I thought it was midnight???

The majority of the counties are scheduled to finish at 9pm Pacific / 12am Eastern, but they don't all go at the same time.  The first county is scheduled to be done at 7pm Pacific / 10pm Eastern.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/katscags62/status/702298974535847937

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[Mr. Morden]

11 names on the ballot, even though 6 of them have dropped out:



The ballot is in alphabetical order.  Will that help anyone?

On another note, here is what I get when I go to the Nevada GOP results page:

http://nevadagop.org/nevada-republican-presidential-caucus-results/

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[Mr. Morden]

Video here showing enormous line at Green Valley High School:

https://twitter.com/pashtana_u/status/702300964418514949

Here’s the line at Spring Valley High School:



Here’s a line somewhere in Las Vegas:



And here’s the Rubio campaign exploiting child labor:

[Mr. Morden]

I love how the networks aren't even covering this

CNN's coverage starts at 10pm while Fox News Channel and MSNBC start at 11pm.  There isn't much to cover until then, since we have no results yet.

[Mr. Morden]

The wording in this ABC story suggests that there is an entrance poll, but that it won't be released until midnight ET:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-nevada-republican-caucuses-entrance-poll-analysis/story?id=37145367

[Mr. Morden]

LOL:

https://twitter.com/CahnEmily/status/702303082030366720

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Another epic performance by the Nevada Republican Party.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/pashtana_u/status/702304599193964544

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[Mr. Morden]

More Emily Cahn reportage:

https://twitter.com/CahnEmily/status/702306197009883136

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I am always scared when no one checks my ID.

https://twitter.com/CahnEmily/status/702306810795962370

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[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/elainaplott/status/702304856111915008

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[Mr. Morden]

Nick Riccardi reportage:

https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/702301507530596353

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https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/702310450050912256

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[Mr. Morden]

From Jon Ralston:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/702311256582017024

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A few response tweets:

https://twitter.com/BradleyRowe/status/702312402956607489

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https://twitter.com/Clownballoon/status/702311901972156416

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[Mr. Morden]

From David Catanese:

https://twitter.com/davecatanese/status/702309325398626304

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