YouGov/Economist national: D: Clinton 54% Sanders 34%; R: Trump 36% Rubio 14%

[Mr. Morden]

YouGov/Economist national poll, conducted Nov. 19-23:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/yougov-economist-23233
pdf link

All likely primary voters of the given party:

Dems

Clinton 54%
Sanders 34%
O’Malley 4%

GOP

Trump 36%
Rubio 14%
Cruz 12%
Carson 10%
Bush 6%
Fiorina 4%
Kasich 4%
Paul 4%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 2%
Graham 1%
Gilmore, Pataki, Santorum 0%

If Indies don't vote, and it's just Dems alone:

Clinton 64%
Sanders 26%
O’Malley 3%

If Indies don't vote, and it's just Republicans alone:

Trump 37%
Rubio 15%
Cruz 11%
Carson 10%
Bush 7%
Fiorina 4%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 3%
Paul 3%
Kasich 2%
Graham 1%
Gilmore, Pataki, Santorum 0%

[Mr. Morden]

I wonder why RealClearPolitics isn't using the polls in their average... it seems, that they exclude all polls with big lead for Trump.

They usually exclude all the internet pollsters.  Though they seem to make exceptions when the internet pollsters partner with one of the major TV networks.  E.g., the recent state polls by YouGov when they partnered with CBS were included.

[Mr. Morden]

I changed the #s in the headline.  Looks like what I was initially listing were the # among Dems alone and Republicans alone, rather than all likely Democratic primary voters and all likely Republican primary voters.  The former excludes Independents who lean one way or the other and intend to vote in the primary.  Including them shifts the Democratic #s greatly, since Sanders has much bigger support among Democratic-leaning Indies than among Dems themselves.

[Mr. Morden]

If Trump and Carson weren’t running, who would you vote for?

Cruz 32%
Rubio 16%
Fiorina 15%
Huckabee 7%
Bush 4%
Paul 4%
Christie 3%
Graham 2%
Kasich 1%
Pataki 1%
Santorum 1%
Graham 0%

2-way matchups:

Cruz 54%
Carson 46%

Rubio 51%
Carson 49%

Trump 61%
Carson 39%

Cruz 55%
Rubio 45%

Trump 57%
Cruz 43%

Trump 57%
Rubio 43%