Quinnipiac national poll: D: Clinton 56% Warren 14%; R: Walker 18% Bush 16%

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnipiac national poll:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2172

Dems

Clinton 56%
Warren 14%
Biden 10%
Sanders 4%
Webb 1%
O'Malley 0%

GOP

Walker 18%
Bush 16%
Christie 8%
Huckabee 8%
Carson 7%
Cruz 6%
Paul 6%
Rubio 5%
Jindal 2%
Santorum 2%
Graham 1%
Kasich 1%
Perry 1%

[Mr. Morden]

Dems, if Clinton doesn't run:

Biden 35%
Warren 25%
Sanders 7%
Webb 3%
O'Malley 1%

On the GOP side, who leads among….?

Tea Party: Walker
white born again Evangelicals: Walker
very conservative: Walker
somewhat conservative: Bush
moderate: Bush
men: Walker
women: Bush

Are there any candidates you would definitely *NOT* support?

Dems

Biden 10%
O'Malley 8%
Webb 7%
Clinton 5%
Sanders 5%
Warren 4%

GOP

Bush 16%
Christie 16%
Paul 9%
Cruz 6%
Graham 6%
Huckabee 6%
Perry 6%
Santorum 4%
Jindal 3%
Rubio 3%
Carson 2%
Kasich 2%
Walker 2%

[Mr. Morden]

Running trendline for all national polls of the GOP race:

[Mr. Morden]

Like I said before, Warren should do what Christie did in 2011 to get the media to finally believe that he wasn't running: After months of denials of interest, flip-flop and say "OK, I'll think about it.  I'll give you an answer next week."  Then the following week, make the announcement: "OK, I thought about it.  And I'm not running."  That was what got everyone to finally believe that he wasn't running, and caused his share price in the betting markets to crash to [near] zero.

[Mr. Morden]

Like I said before, Warren should do what Christie did in 2011 to get the media to finally believe that he wasn't running: After months of denials of interest, flip-flop and say "OK, I'll think about it.  I'll give you an answer next week."  Then the following week, make the announcement: "OK, I thought about it.  And I'm not running."  That was what got everyone to finally believe that he wasn't running, and caused his share price in the betting markets to crash to [near] zero.

The thing with Christie though, was that he literally considered it. He didn't just walk into his mansion, play video games (or something), and keep a low profile for a week before saying "NO!", he actually became genuinely undecided after being disappointed with the republican field and only stayed out because he didn't think he could beat Obama. If he had a reason to think he could beat Obama, he would have run in 2012.

Warren, on the other hand, has not indicated any problem she has with a nominee Clinton, has pretty much come as close as you can to making a Sherman statement ("I will resign immediately if elected") without making one, and has said "No" from the very first time she was asked about it (without ever saying something less certain, or even using the traditional "never say never, but probably no", nope, just plain old "No.").

Right.  Christie really considered.  But Warren could make a show of considering it.  She could pretend to consider it, and then say "No, sorry, the answer is still no", and that would provide a sharp breaking point for everyone to stop considering her.  Otherwise, people will remain uncertain about when to give up on her, and there'll just be a slow tapering off of interest in pretending she might run, with no clearly defined end point.