Atlas forum leaderboard

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, the next milestone of note for an individual poster will presumably be BRTD reaching 90,000 posts.  I assume he'll make it within the next few weeks, since he has less than 200 posts to go.

Also, olawakandi continues to post at an incredibly high rate, and will presumably reach 40,000 posts within the next 2 months.  Then a few months after that, will break into the top 10, probably climbing up through the rankings very fast, since he posts much more often than anyone currently in the top 10.  OTOH, maybe he'll slow down once the election is over?  I don't know.

[Mr. Morden]

Top 10 update: BRTD has passed 90k:

1) BRTD 90,014
2) Al 63,170
3) Lewis 58,239
4) Kal 57,178
5) Tender 54,069
6) Phil 52,651
7) Antonio 52,157
8 ) jfern 47,507
9) opebo 47,052
10) North Carolina Yankee 46,287

[Mr. Morden]

Here, have a chart that I made because I was bored:

You forgot opebo:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=164

[Mr. Morden]

Posts per day on the forum was down a little in July compared to June, but still up compared to the same month four years ago, and still above 50,000 for the (record setting) 6th month in a row.  I assume next month will also be above 50,000, since we have two conventions and a VP announcement.  Seems likely that we'll be able to keep up 50,000+ posts a month through November.

Also, olawakandi is probably about 3 weeks away from hitting the 40,000 post mark.

[Mr. Morden]

olawakandi has crossed the 40,000 post mark.  Again, the big question with him is whether he'll continue to post at the same incredibly high rate after Election Day or not.  If he does then I guess he'll crack the top ten at some point in early 2021, and will rocket up the Top Ten list after that.

[Mr. Morden]

what's the current ETA on BRTD hitting 6 digits?  We should do some kind of "guess the year/month" game for it.  (though we'd have to somehow not let him know about it for it to be truly fair and that's probably impossible)

It looks like he's made nearly 500 posts in the past month.  If he actually kept that up, then that would get him to 100,000 in something like March 2022?  But I think that's a much higher rate than his typical posting rate outside of election season, so I don't see him keeping this up past November.  2023 seems more realistic.

[Mr. Morden]

A couple of hours to go until the month is over, but looks like August 2020 will end up with the 2nd highest number of posts in a month in forum history (losing only to October 2016).

[Mr. Morden]

A couple of hours to go until the month is over, but looks like August 2020 will end up with the 2nd highest number of posts in a month in forum history (losing only to October 2016).

I'm going to go out on a limb and bet we hit at least 7,000 posts for October 

That's not much of a limb.  I assume we'll get 7000 posts within the first three days or so of October.

[Mr. Morden]

Olawakandi just passed Lief for 13th place this past week:

1) BRTD 90,874
2) Al 63,294
3) Lewis 58,232
4) Kal 57,410
5) Tender 54,893
6) Phil 52,650
7) Antonio 52,169
8 ) jfern 47,820
9) opebo 47,051
10) North Carolina Yankee 46,823

11) Eraserhead 43,676
12) Mr. Morden 42,156
13) olawakandi 41,183

Olawakandi will presumably pass me for 12th place in about a month, and then pass Eraserhead for 11th about a month and a half after that.  When he reaches 10th place again depends on how active he's going to be after the election.

When he does hit 10th place, it'll presumably come from passing opebo, since NCY is probably less than a month away from passing opebo for 9th place.

[Mr. Morden]

A while ago, I remember you saying that there wasn't a likely path to knocking Opebo out of top ten

I don't think I ever put it quite like that.  Given enough time, it was always inevitable.  Though I may have said that it was quite a few years away.  I mean, no one else who is hovering just outside the top ten is posting very much anymore.  I'm only making ~100 posts a month these days, so it'll presumably take me quite a few years to catch opebo.

But yes, olawakandi is going to make it happen much faster than I would have previously expected.

[Mr. Morden]

This past month (September) had the second most posts of any month in forum history, following only October 2016.  October 2020 will presumably set a new record.

[Mr. Morden]

olawakandi has passed me for 12th place:

1) BRTD 91,205
2) Al 63,329
3) Lewis 58,232
4) Kal 57,509
5) Tender 55,336
6) Phil 52,650
7) Antonio 52,257
8 ) jfern 48,019
9) opebo 47,051
10) North Carolina Yankee 46,990

11) Eraserhead 43,715
12) olawakandi 42,287

olawakandi has in fact made about 500 posts just in the last week.

[Mr. Morden]

NCY has taken 9th place, pushing opebo down to 10th place:

1) BRTD 91,227
2) Al 63,331
3) Lewis 58,232
4) Kal 57,509
5) Tender 55,398
6) Phil 52,650
7) Antonio 52,262
8 ) jfern 48,036
9) North Carolina Yankee 47,054
10) opebo 47,051

[Mr. Morden]

This is getting seriously out of hand, I mean how long can he keep this up without burning out?

OC? Probably indefinitely tbh

It remains to be seen if he's really going to keep going at this same pace after the election is over.

[Mr. Morden]

It's only Oct. 25th, so we still have 6 days to go before the month is over, and yet this month already has more posts than any previous month in forum history.  Previous record was Oct. 2016, which had 66,370 posts, but we're already over 70,000 for this month, with 80,000 before week's end all but assured.  For that matter, hitting 90,000 isn't out of the question at this point, since we've recently been clocking over 3000 posts a day on every recent weekday (and even managed it yesterday as well, despite it being a Saturday).

[Mr. Morden]

We've now hit 80,000 posts for the month of October, and seem very likely to hit 90,000 by month's end at this rate.  To reiterate, the previous record for a single month was only 66,370 in October 2016, so that record is being absolutely shattered.

Why are you people posting so much? 

[Mr. Morden]

And we're now above 90,000 posts for the month of October, with another day and a half to go before the month is over.  Imagine how active it would be if the presidential race was actually competitive.

[Mr. Morden]

olawakandi has passed Eraserhead for 11th place, and should crack the top ten some time in early 2021:

1) BRTD 91,696
2) Al 63,385
3) Lewis 58,232
4) Kal 57,509
5) Tender 56,107
6) Phil 52,650
7) Antonio 52,313
8 ) jfern 48,408
9) North Carolina Yankee 46,823
10) opebo 47,051

11) olawakandi 43,892

[Mr. Morden]

We just had 23 days in a row in which more than 3000 posts were made every single day, including weekends.  But at present, it looks like that streak will most likely be coming to an end today, as I don't think we'll make 3000 posts today.  Keep in mind, that in many months, we have zero days with more than 3000 posts.  As recently as July of this year, we had a month with zero days with more than 3000 posts.

[Mr. Morden]

olawakandi has just fallen below 1,000 posts in the Last 30 days leaderboard!



When was the last time it happened?

I don't know when exactly the transition point was, but I think it was only in something like the second half of 2019 that olawakandi went from being a very active poster to a ridiculously active poster, with 1000+ posts a month.  If you go back two years, for example, to December 2018, he "only" made ~450 posts that month.  And go back farther than that, and he wasn't a very active poster at all.  I mean, he's been on the forum since 2006, so obviously he wasn't super active during most of that time, or else he'd be over 100,000 posts by now.  (Someone once observed that a couple of years ago, he was only posting on Saturdays(!).)

Looks like I'm going to surpass Phil and reclaim the 6th spot soon. Sad.

After that it should be all downhill though. My activity is still way down from what it used to be.

Even at his "reduced" capacity of less than 1000 posts a month, my guess is that olawakandi will be the one to take the 6th spot from you, some time before the end of 2021.  Then you'll be in 7th again, but it could be years before you move either up or down from that position after that, since I don't think the posters behind you in the top 10 right now are super active these days either (or at least, not active enough to make up a 4000 or 5000 post deficit any time soon).

[Mr. Morden]

I completely forgot about that lol. Well I think it's interesting. If he was a pedo, why did they let him carry on the charade so long, especially with the well known connection between Thailand and "sexpats." I just tried searching "opebo thailand" and a couple people raised the question but they got shut down pretty quick.

I don't believe it's true that he's a "confirmed pedo".  He was (is?) a sex tourist in Thailand, but claimed to only be sleeping with women over the age of 18 there.  However, on multiple occasions he made it clear that he was against all age of consent laws, and spent a lot of time defending Roman Polanski.  Joe Republic put it best here:

Where did the whole "opebo is a pedophile" thing even come from?  Even in that stuff from that other forum that Gully somewhat creepily collected and posted here, he mostly talks about having sex with women in their twenties or thirties and never talks about having sex with anyone under eighteen.

He denies being a pedophile himself, but has repeatedly stated that he applauds their "fight for freedom".  To rape children.

Also:

I assume the mods eventually got confirmation of that or something to that effect.

No.  I was a mod back then, and there was no such confirmation.  However, one of several incidents that happened shortly before his banning is what's talked about in that thread I linked to, which is that someone uncovered posts of his on another forum talking about his interactions with (adult) Thai prostitutes in a pretty gross manner.

[Mr. Morden]

Many posters have seen their posting rate drop since Election Day, but BRTD's posting rate hasn't dropped that much.  He's made nearly 500 posts in the last month, which is actually a little higher than his ~15 posts per day average over the course of his entire 17 years here.

If he keeps going at that rate, then he'll hit the 100,000 post mark in the first half of 2022.

[Mr. Morden]

Antonio has passed Phil, and taken the #6 spot from him:

1) BRTD 92,630
2) Al 63,480
3) Lewis 58,232
4) Kal 57,505
5) Tender 56,942
6) Antonio 52,766
7) Phil 52,647
8 ) jfern 48,974
9) North Carolina Yankee 47,772
10) opebo 47,051

[Mr. Morden]

Now that olawakandi has made it into the top 10, the order of people in the top 10 will be changing a lot (with, among other things, olawakandi moving rapidly up the list), but I don't see anyone new entering the top 10 for a long time.  My hunch is that by 2023, Keystone Phil will have fallen to the #10 spot (as those immediately below him are likely to pass him by then), and then someone will probably pass him for #10 some time that year.

No idea who will do that.  At one point I would have been on pace to catch up to him by then, but I've slowed way down.  With 10,000 posts to go for me to catch up to Phil, I highly doubt I'll get there in 2-3 years.  I guess a dark horse to reach the top 10 in 2023 would be Badger, who's only at about 30,000 posts right now but, according to the stats page, has made 895 posts in the last 30 days(!).  If he actually kept that up for two years (not that I think he's likely to), then he'd easily be in the 50,000 post range when 2023 begins.

[Mr. Morden]

Tender Branson has now passed Kalwejt, and is in the #4 spot now:

1) BRTD 93,472
2) Al 63,558
3) Lewis 58,232
4) Tender 57,480
5) Kal 57,478
6) Antonio 53,374
7) Phil 52,647
8 ) jfern 49,332
9) North Carolina Yankee 48,855
10) olawakandi 48,488