When do you plan on endorsing Hillary Clinton for President?

[Mr. Morden]

Who, on 02/07/2007, seriously thought Obama was going to win?

While I don't think Tweed did this poll in February 2007, he did have "Who do you believe will win the Democratic nomination?" polls in both November 2006 and March 2007:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=48770.5

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=54410.20

Obama got over 20% in both cases, and Clinton got under 50% in both cases.

Some Obama predictions from that era:

Obama will win. Clinton scares too many people and none of the other candidates are very exciting.

I think Hillary will be the front-runner at first, but will eventually be overtaken by Obama, who'll get the nomination.

I think it will be Obama

Obama will win the nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

In any case, there's a hierarchy of competitiveness in presidential primary contests.  E.g…..

GOP 2016 = extremely wide open, not even much agreement on who the frontrunner is
Dems 2008 = a clear frontrunner, but a relatively weak one…she had some obvious vulnerabilities
Dems 2000 & GOP 2000 = a pretty dominant frontrunner in each case; both Bush and Gore *could* have lost their nominations, but it would have taken the perfect storm
Dems 2016 = as dominant a non-incumbent frontrunner as we've seen in the modern era; enough so that all "establishment friendly" rivals look set to bow out, leaving only people on the fringes of the party, like Sanders and Webb as her token opposition