Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
Posts: 44,066
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« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2015, 09:25:59 AM » |
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In 2003, the Democrats held their first debate in early May. Several candidates, including Kerry, Edwards, and Dean, participated in the debate despite not having officially announced their candidacies. But they had exploratory committees, and were acting like candidates: raising money, participating in debates, doing campaign swings in early primary states. Kerry didn't formally announce his candidacy until September, and the media largely ignored it as a non-event at the time, because he'd already been behaving as a candidate for many months. The announcement of candidacy was just a formality.
In contrast, when Fred Thompson ran in 2007/2008, he skipped any debates during his exploratory phase, and pretty much just stayed at home, calling donors. (But he was lazy.) Jim Webb seems to be doing pretty much the same right now. (He doesn't seem to be that excited about running either.)
How a candidate treats the exploratory phase is up to the candidate. If Clinton launches an exploratory committee in April, then everyone will understand that that's effectively the launch of her campaign. But she might just decide to spend those first few months raising money, and doing little else. Being in the exploratory phase does give you the benefit of plausible deniability if you don't want to start with the national interviews or frequent trips to Iowa just yet.
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