Likelihood to run, according to Politico:
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/2016-elections-republicans-to-watch-113014.html?hp=t2_r1) Paul
2) Cruz
3) Jindal
4) Perry
5) Christie
6) Rubio
7) Santorum
8 ) Carson
9) Walker
10) Bush
11) Kasich
12) Portman
13) Pence
14) Fiorina
15) Bolton
16) Thune
17) Ryan
18) Huckabee
19) Graham
20) Romney
So, Pataki doesn't make the list? The fact that he's already faked us out twice means that we shouldn't take his trial balloon seriously?
Also, I think Bolton should be higher. It's true that the media ignores him, but that just makes him more likely to run. Carson and Huckabee and the like can juice book sales by pretending to run for president but then not going through with it. Bolton actually has to run in order for people to realize that he exists.
The top 10: