Early Exit Polls

[Mr. Morden]

How much do you want to bet that the early exits will show Grimes narrowly beating McConnell, Mary Burke stomping Scott Walker and all sorts of Democratic wet dream material? Reality usually sets in a couple of hours after their release.

Every year the same thing happens and I still get a rush out of those silly early exit polls. I guess, at the end of the day, they're just part of what makes election night so much fun.

Ever since the post-2004 reforms that put an end to the early exit poll leaks until 5pm or later, I don't think the exit polls have been that bad.  I know there've been some weird cases in primaries, but in general elections, can you name any races post-2004 in which the 5pm exit poll leaks were way off?

[Mr. Morden]

How much do you want to bet that the early exits will show Grimes narrowly beating McConnell, Mary Burke stomping Scott Walker and all sorts of Democratic wet dream material? Reality usually sets in a couple of hours after their release.

Every year the same thing happens and I still get a rush out of those silly early exit polls. I guess, at the end of the day, they're just part of what makes election night so much fun.

Just like when reality set in before November 2nd, 2004?

Oh dear, that one was just brutal... because I actually passionately cared about that election.

I've never come close to caring as much about the outcome of an election since (probably for the best).

I do distinctly remember Kerry leading in Ohio and Florida in the early exit polls. Sheesh.

Those were unweighted exits that got leaked to the media at something like 1pm Eastern.  Very early.

Again, because of that fiasco, the networks reformed their exit polling practice, and now sequester the exit poll people until 5pm Eastern, and nothing leaks before then.  Thus the post-5pm wave of exits are usually more or less accurate…..at least in general elections.

[Mr. Morden]

How much do you want to bet that the early exits will show Grimes narrowly beating McConnell, Mary Burke stomping Scott Walker and all sorts of Democratic wet dream material? Reality usually sets in a couple of hours after their release.

Every year the same thing happens and I still get a rush out of those silly early exit polls. I guess, at the end of the day, they're just part of what makes election night so much fun.

Ever since the post-2004 reforms that put an end to the early exit poll leaks until 5pm or later, I don't think the exit polls have been that bad.  I know there've been some weird cases in primaries, but in general elections, can you name any races post-2004 in which the 5pm exit poll leaks were way off?

I seem to recall the early exits showing Feingold tied with Johnson in 2010. He lost by 5% in the end. I also seem to recall them showing Kirk and Toomey losing.

You're right that they're probably not quite as bad these days as they were circa 2004 though.

Drudge's exit poll leak had Johnson beating Feingold:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127349.msg2706905#msg2706905

though that shifted to a tie by the time all the polls closed.  Likewise, Kirk leading by 6 in IL in the first leaked exits, though that also shifted to a tie by the time the polls closed:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127349.msg2707136#msg2707136

Toomey led 51/49 in the early exit polls, which is pretty much exactly what the final result was:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127334.msg2707296#msg2707296

The 2010 national House exit polls showed the GOP winning 52%-46%, which was pretty close:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127349.msg2706914#msg2706914