Predict who will be running one year from now

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton is of course the most likely Dem. to run, followed by Sanders.

On the GOP side…..I don't know.  I'm not going to rank them, or say which are more than 50% likely to run, but I guess the ten most likely to run are (in alphabetical order):

Bolton
Carson
Christie
Cruz
Jindal
Paul
Perry
Rubio
Santorum
Walker

Peter King would have been on that list six months ago, but he seems to have dropped off the face of the Earth.  He needs to make a few more trips to NH before I'm convinced.

[Mr. Morden]

Why do people think Carly Fiorina is running for president?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg4247710#msg4247710

[Mr. Morden]

The more interesting question is who will already have launched their campaigns as of six months from now.  I'd say Bolton is a strong bet, since he doesn't really have much in the way of a day job right now.  He seems to be largely focused on his PAC, which nominally exists in order to support his favored candidates in the midterms.  So once the midterms are over, what else does he have to do besides run for president?  Other potential candidates either currently hold elective office or are making some $ in the private sector.  Santorum has his movie studio thing going, for example, so he has an incentive to delay any announcement until the spring.

Also, gotta say that I disagree with the few of you who predict neither Bush nor Rubio runninng.  Rubio is more desperate to win the presidency than anyone.  I don't see him passing on a run unless former mentor Jeb Bush gets in the race.  We'll have one or the other Floridian in the race, IMHO.  OTOH, it's very possible that neither of the two Wisconsinites runs.  Ryan seems ambivalent, and Walker depends on what happens in November.