Rank the top five most likely people to be elected POTUS in November 2016

[Mr. Morden]

Haven't done this in a while…..

Who are your top five most likely people to go all the way and win the US presidency in November 2016?  (ranked list, from most likely, #1, second most likely #2, etc.)

I imagine that Hillary Clinton will be at #1 in almost everyone's list, but curious to see what it looks like after that.

[Mr. Morden]

Paul seems to be the most popular non-Clinton choice on people's lists here.  I think you guys are overestimating him.  Even if he wins the GOP nomination, his nomination could very well tear the party apart, as a substantial fraction of GOP elites are allergic to his positions on foreign policy and civil liberties.  The ensuing firestorm could torpedo his (perhaps not terribly strong to begin with) GE chances.

I also think people here tend to underestimate Rubio.  I'll have another thread on this at some point, but one thing that shouldn't be underestimated is the importance of really really wanting to be president.  Many candidates aren't that desperate for it.  They run to sell books, or they think there's an opening, and they can slide into the right niche without doing the hard work.  Romney *really* wanted the nomination in 2012, and was willing to do or say whatever was necessary to get it.  His challengers, like Perry, Gingrich, Paul, etc., didn't seem so desperate to get it.  Likewise, in 2008, McCain and Romney wanted the nomination the most, and they finished 1 and 2 in the primaries.

I'm not exactly sure yet who wants it most in 2016, but Rubio would be high up on the list, so I'm still rating him relatively highly in this very wide open field.  However, if Bush were to run, Rubio will probably have to wait until 2020 to launch a bid of his own.  But I'm not that high on Bush's chances of doing so, at the moment.

So my own list, as of now, would be:

1) Clinton
2) Christie
3) Rubio
4) Walker
5) Bush

[Mr. Morden]

1. Scott Walker. Most reliable puppet of the Koch syndicate.  First President elected in a rigged election. Most reliable puppet of the Koch syndicate.

2. Hillary Clinton. If I did not recognize Americans for Prosperity (for only 1% and $crew the rest badly)

3. Jeb Bush

4. Joe Biden (in case something goes wrong with President Obama)

5. Amy Klobuchar (in case something goes wrong with the health of Hillary Clinton.

A warning about #1: the next President will win practically uncontested.

You've had quite the turnaround in just the past week.  Not long ago it was "blue firewall", "age wave", and:

If Republicans think Barack Obama troublesome, then wait until they see Hillary Clinton.  

Now you post about democracy being "dead", and Scott Walker being more likely to be elected president than Hillary Clinton?