CPAC straw poll: Paul 31% Cruz 11% Carson 9% Christie 8% Walker 7% Santorum 7%

[Mr. Morden]

CPAC will be held March 6-8.  Nearly all the likely 2016ers will be speaking.  Here's the tentative program:

http://www.cpac.org/sites/default/files/CPAC2014Schedule.pdf

Note how the schedule is dominated by folks who've publicly floated the possibility of running for president in 2016.  Namely:

Bolton
Carson
Christie
Cruz
Huckabee
Jindal
Paul
Perry
Rubio
Ryan
Santorum
Trump

Bush was invited, but declined to attend.  I assume that Walker was invited too, but he might also be busy:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/370250/no-cpac-jeb-bush-eliana-johnson

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Update: Paul wins:

link

Paul 31%
Cruz 11%
Carson 9%
Christie 8%
Walker 7%
Santorum 7%
Rubio 6%
Ryan 3%
Perry 3%
Jindal 2%
Rice 2%
Huckabee 2%
Palin 2%

[Mr. Morden]

The straw poll ballot hasn't been released yet.  Last year, the results were:

Paul 25%
Rubio 23%
Santorum 8%
Christie 7%
Ryan 6%
Walker 5%
Carson 4%
Cruz 4%
Jindal 3%
Palin 3%
Other 14%
Undecided 1%

In other news, CPAC has made peace with GOProud, a gay Republican group, and will allow them at the meeting, but will not have them as a sponsor, or give them a booth.  One of the GOProud founders quit the group, because he said this doesn't go far enough:

http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/politicsnow/la-pn-cpac-gay-rights-goproud-conservative-20140219,0,747918.story#axzz2uO1d6lHz

However, while the gays are deemed sort of OK, the atheists are not:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2014/02/25/big-mouth-gets-atheists-booted-from-cpac-booth

[Mr. Morden]

They have some promo pics of the speakers on their Facebook page.  e.g….

[Mr. Morden]

The schedule of CPAC speakers who are also possible 2016 candidates (being generous, and including Gingrich, Lee, Palin, and Trump):

Thursday

9:00am Ted Cruz
9:24am Paul Ryan
10:25am John Bolton
11:01am Chris Christie
12:00pm Bobby Jindal
12:16pm Marco Rubio
12:31pm Mike Lee
[Also at 12:30 in another room--not a speech, but a book signing event by Joe Scarborough]
2:45pm Donald Trump

Friday

9:00am Rick Perry
10:23am Mike Huckabee
2:25pm Rick Santorum
2:51pm Rand Paul

Saturday

12:45pm Newt Gingrich
12:58pm Ben Carson
5:23pm Straw poll results are announced
5:47pm Sarah Palin

[Mr. Morden]

Probably Ted Cruz or Rand Paul will win the straw poll. However, Santorum could come close too.

These are more movement conservatives than conservative Evangelicals.  Not really Santorum's best crowd.  Yes, he came in third last time, but with a divided field, 8% is good enough for third.  I don't seem him reaching the ~20% support that would be needed to "come close" to victory.

[Mr. Morden]

As far as I can tell, they still haven't announced the names on the straw poll ballot.  Last year, they had about 20 names on the ballot, and Jeb Bush specifically asked for his name to be taken off.  Any guesses as to who they might include or exclude this time?

Also, looks like we'll get some on the ground reporting from Inks:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=170439.msg4078862#msg4078862

[Mr. Morden]

The straw poll will include a whopping 26 names:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/mar/4/cpac-to-test-26-candidates-for-president-with-stra/?page=all

That story doesn't give the full list, but it does mention the following names:

Ayotte
Carson
Christie
Cruz
Haley
Huckabee
Jindal
Martinez
McDonnell (what?)
Palin
Paul
Perry
Rubio
Ryan
Santorum
Scott
Thune
Trump
Walker

That's 19 names.  So there are 7 others, who they didn't name.  Bolton, Bush, and Peter King would be among the more obvious names not listed there.  Who else?

[Mr. Morden]

A must read primer for those attending CPAC: http://dailycaller.com/2014/03/05/a-primer-for-getting-lucky-at-cpac/

[Mr. Morden]

I agree with Catanese here:

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/03/05/chris-christies-big-moment-at-cpac

We can largely predict what most of the potential 2016ers will say at CPAC.  But Christie is the interesting one to watch.  To what extent does he try to play to the crowd?  (a crowd that refused to invite him to this last year)

[Mr. Morden]

Link for the live of CPAC?

Good question.  According to this:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/03/05/cpac-2014-schedule-features-ted-cruz-chris-christie/

it'll be on C-SPAN.  Though I don't seen anything about it on their website at the moment.  I would check back here:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/specials/cpac/

as the time approaches as well, as they might have some info.

[Mr. Morden]

A preview of Christie's speech:

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/03/06/christie-to-tell-cpac-stop-letting-media-define-us

[Mr. Morden]

From Twitter:

[Mr. Morden]

Allegedly, we'll get a live stream here:

http://therightscoop.com/watch-live-cpac-2014-live-stream/

But they haven't started yet, so I don't know.  It'll also be on C-SPAN (both TV and internet stream) from 12:40pm onwards: http://www.c-span.org/schedule/?channel=1

[Mr. Morden]

Last link didn't work.  This one seems to: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/06/cpac-2014-live_n_4898787.html?&ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000016

Cruz speaking now, but the audio isn't great.

[Mr. Morden]

Catanese reviews the 2016ers' speeches, and gives letter grades:

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/03/06/from-cruz-to-christie-grading-the-speeches-at-cpac

Jindal B
Rubio A
Christie A-
Cruz B+
Ryan B

Coming up on Friday: Perry, Huckabee, Santorum, Paul

[Mr. Morden]

My prediction:

1. Ted Cruz
2. Rand Paul
3. Scott Walker
4. Paul Ryan
5. Marco Rubio
6. Chris Christie
7. Rick Santorum
8. Ben Carson
9. Bobby Jindal
10. John Bolton

This will likely be 100% wrong, as I haven't heard any of the speeches yet.

I don't think Walker will do that well, since he's not showing up to speak at the event.  (Granted, Christie had a decent showing last time, despite not being there, but he has more of a national brand.)

[Mr. Morden]

Weigel has great CPAC coverage as always:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel.html

Spoiler: Trump is still "birther curious", and Cruz thinks an Iranian EMP attack could kill "tens of millions of Americans".

[Mr. Morden]

According to this:

http://www.wsbt.com/news/politics/Christie-gets-warm-reception-at-gathering-of-the-right/24841074

Jeb Bush, for the second year in a row, asked his name be taken off the straw poll ballot, so there'll now be 25 names.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the list of everyone on the ballot:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/03/06/cpac-latest-developments/

1.         NH Senator Kelly Ayotte
2.         KS Governor Sam Brownback
3.         Neurosurgeon Ben Carson
4.         NJ Governor Chris Christie
5.         TX Senator Ted Cruz
6.         Former IN Governor Mitch Daniels
7.         SC Governor Nikki Haley
8.         Former AR Governor Mike Huckabee
9.         LA Governor Bobby Jindal
10.       OH Governor John Kasich
11.       NM Governor Susana Martinez
12.       Former AK Governor Sarah Palin
13.       KY Senator Rand Paul
14.       IN Governor Mike Pence
15.       TX Governor Rick Perry
16.       OH Senator Rob Portman
17.       Former Sec. of State Condoleeza Rice
18.       FL Senator Marco Rubio
19.       WI Congressman Paul Ryan
20.       Former PA Senator Rick Santorum
21.       SC Senator Tim Scott
22.       SD Senator John Thune
23.       Business Executive Donald Trump
24.       WI Governor Scott Walker
25.       Former FL Congressman Allen West

[Mr. Morden]

No Peter King on the ballot.  And no John Bolton either.

Bolton is speaking at CPAC, and has been publicly talking about the fact that he's thinking about running for president.  But they put Sam Brownback and Tim Scott on the ballot, but not him?

(Also, the earlier report that McDonnell would be on the ballot appears to be wrong.)

[Mr. Morden]

Why Walker skipped CPAC: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/03/07/why-scott-walker-was-smart-to-skip-cpac/

[Mr. Morden]

Perry is a little loopy again.

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, for those who aren't watching live, you can catch all the speeches on the ACU's Youtube channel.  E.g., Christie's speech: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFJ_7GqpggI

[Mr. Morden]

Catanese's Day 2 speech grades:

Paul A
Santorum B+
Huckabee C
Perry A

(I watched Perry's speech, and he seemed to be a bit drunk--despite it being 9 in the morning--but maybe that's just me.)

[Mr. Morden]

CPAC attendees give their thoughts on 2016:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/03/07/video-cpac-attendees-discuss-2016-presidential-race/