latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio's stock hasn't moved in forever. I expect someone bought and held a bunch of his shares a while back.

Here's a list of the price changes on Rubio on all the betting sites:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate/bet-history/marco-rubio/today

(Remember these numbers are inverted to probabilities, so 6.13 translates to 16.3 the way I list it.)  On Betfair alone, his price has moved on average once every week or two.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush drops, putting Paul now in second place:

Rubio 16.3
Paul 12.2
Bush 11.9
Christie 10.0
Perry 9.5
Romney 8.4
Cruz 6.0
Ryan 4.5
Walker 4.0
Huckabee 3.3

[Mr. Morden]

Betfair prices are set by the bookmakers. This isnt the same as intrade (which closed down). So there are no 'shares' for people to buy/sell/hold.

To be clear, I'm posting the numbers from "Betfair Exchange" rather than "Betfair Sportsbook".  I think the former works the same way as Intrade.

The numbers on Betfair Sportsbook are a bit different.  They have Christie and Rubio tied for first, with Paul just behind them.  All of the bookies have some combination of Christie, Paul, or Rubio in first or tied for first at the moment.  Rubio's leading with more of them than Christie or Paul is though.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush regains the lead.  Romney back up to fifth place as Perry falls back down to Earth.  Ryan's at what I think for him is an all time low:

GOP

Bush 17.4
Rubio 16.3
Paul 11.6
Christie 11.1
Romney 9.1
Cruz 6.5
Perry 6.4
Jindal 3.8
Walker 3.8
Huckabee 3.4
Ryan 3.4

Dems

Clinton 68.5
Warren 9.1
Biden 6.5
Cuomo 2.9
O'Malley 2.4

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 29.6
Thune 19.0
Palin 18.8
Pawlenty 13.5
Gingrich 9.0
Huckabee 7.9
Barbour 7.0
Daniels 7.0
Paul 6.2
J. Bush 6.0
Pence 5.0

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democratic:

Clinton 48.1
Gore 17.0
Edwards 13.9
Obama 5.0
Kerry 3.3
Bayh 3.1
Feingold 2.5
Richardson 2.4
Biden 1.7
Vilsack 1.2
Clark 1.0

Republicans:

McCain 38.4
Giulani 18.6
Romney 15.0
Allen 6.6
Huckabee 6.3
Rice 4.0
Gingrich 3.0
Frist 1.7
Brownback 1.2

[Mr. Morden]

Note that in both 2006 and 2010, only 4-5 of the people in the top 10 of the betting markets actually ended up running in the end.  So we should have some humility about declaring this or that candidate a sure thing to run.  There'll surely be a good deal of weeding out of candidates just in the next six months.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney now up to third place:

Bush 17.4
Rubio 15.8
Romney 12.8
Paul 11.9
Christie 11.1

[Mr. Morden]

Update:

Bush 17.4
Rubio 15.8
Paul 11.9
Romney 11.9
Christie 10.7
Cruz 6.8
Perry 5.7
Ryan 5.0
Walker 3.8
Jindal 3.7

Approx. 4 years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 31.2
Palin 19.0
Thune 18.5
Pawlenty 12.0
Christie 9.9
Gingrich 8.6
Huckabee 8.4
Daniels 6.6
Barbour 6.5
J. Bush 6.1
Pence 6.1
Paul 5.2

Approx 8 years ago at this time on Intrade:

McCain 44.5
Romney 14.0
Giulani 13.5
Huckabee 6.0
Rice 4.1
Gingrich 4.0
Hagel 3.4
Allen 3.0
Brownback 1.3
Frist 1.2
Cheney 0.8
Jeb Bush 0.8
Tancredo 0.8
Pataki 0.8
Graham 0.8
Powell 0.6
Owens 0.5
Others <= 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

why has Thune dropped off the radar so dramatically as a national possibility?

The 2012 bench was thinner, and other's who would occupy Thune's niche have taken his place.  Also, his decision not to run in 2012 signalled that he was more interested in building his career in the Senate than running for prez.  The fact that his seat is up in 2016 makes it even less likely that he'll run this time.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney surges into the lead:

Romney 19.6
Bush 17.4
Rubio 15.4
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.5
Cruz 6.4
Perry 5.5

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-midterm update.  We'll see how things change after the election.  Obviously, one person to watch is Scott Walker.

Winning party, 2016 presidential election:

Dems 59.9
GOP 46.7
(obviously, those add up to much more than 100%, but the volume's low)

GOP nominee:
(Bush retakes the lead)

Bush 17.4
Romney 16.8
Rubio 15.8
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.0
Cruz 6.2
Perry 5.7
Ryan 4.8
Jindal 3.6
Walker 3.6
Huckabee 3.3

Dem. nominee

Clinton 68.0
Warren 9.1
Biden 6.8
Gillibrand 3.8
O'Malley 3.4
Cuomo 2.6

Four years ago on Intrade, just before the midterms:

Winning party, 2012 presidential election:

Dems 60.9
GOP 37.5
3rd party 3.1

GOP nominee:

Romney 29.5
Thune 18.7
Palin 16.2
Pawlenty 11.8
Christie 9.9
Gingrich 6.8
Daniels 6.6
Huckabee 6.6
Barbour 6.5
J. Bush 6.3
Pence 6.1
Paul 6.0
P. Ryan 4.9
DeMint 4.4
Giuliani 4.0
Johnson 2.9
Santorum 2.9

Dem. nominee:

Obama 83.0
Clinton 8.0

Note that Christie is just about at the same place he was four years ago in the betting markets.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie doesn't appear to fear losing as much as he fears discomfort, and he probably likes the idea of being the Don of NJ for a few decades, (though a 2017 win is by no means assured should the NJ Dems dig up a decent candidate that can simultaneously get the blacks out in droves and cut into Christie's margins in the wealthy suburbs/exurbs).  now THAT would be a fun off-year race to watch.

Christie's term limited out of the governorship in 2017.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie doesn't appear to fear losing as much as he fears discomfort, and he probably likes the idea of being the Don of NJ for a few decades, (though a 2017 win is by no means assured should the NJ Dems dig up a decent candidate that can simultaneously get the blacks out in droves and cut into Christie's margins in the wealthy suburbs/exurbs).  now THAT would be a fun off-year race to watch.

Christie's term limited out of the governorship in 2017.

shucks, I didn't know that!  we in NY allow our Dons to reign until they're toppled ("may God allow me to accept this defeat, and to understand it" -Andrew Cuomo, November 8, 1994).

that little factoid ratchets up the odds quite significantly -- or he could roll the dice, hope for a Hillary win, and enter stage right as the heavy favorite for the GOP nom in 2020, red as a tomato from extended vacations bookending a book tour.

Of course, given how frequently the GOP nominates the previous runner-up for the nomination, running unsuccessfully for the nom. in 2016 in order to set oneself up for 2020 or beyond isn't a bad strategy.  Sitting out 2016 and waiting for 2020 gives others the chance to gain recognition and push ahead of you in line.  Of course, this applies not just to Christie but to everyone else……which is why all of them have an interest in running this time around if they want it.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-midterm update:

Bush 17.4
Rubio 15.8
Romney 15.4
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.9
Walker 6.5
Cruz 6.2
Perry 5.7
Ryan 4.8
Jindal 3.6
Huckabee 3.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 22.8
Palin 18.0
Thune 15.9
Pawlenty 8.7
Huckabee 7.2
J. Bush 6.0
Daniels 5.9
Gingrich 5.3
Ryan 4.4
Rubio 2.5

[Mr. Morden]

Why has Walker not surged? Are these people on crack?

He's gone from 3.6 to 6.5 in little more than 24 hours, an increase of 80%.  So he's "surged", but he was starting from a very low baseline.

I agree that he's the most undervalued here, but there may be some hedging on the fact that he doesn't seem to be as committed to running as some of the others.  He suggested today that he won't announce 2016 plans until June(!):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg4370096#msg4370096

Granted, he may just be playing games there, and not wanting to appear too eager to run for higher office the day after being reelected to this one.

The larger issue, I think, is that betters overvalue current name recognition and current polling in these things, rather than try to project forward on how someone might play once they get better known.  Recall how Giuliani led the GOP betting markets throughout 2007, well past the point at which everyone here agreed that he was no longer the favorite.

[Mr. Morden]

Walker now surging like mad....up to fourth place:

Bush 17.4
Rubio 15.8
Romney 14.5
Walker 12.8
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.7
Cruz 6.2

Walker was at 3.6 on Tuesday before the election results came in.  So if you'd bet on him then, you would have made a ~250% return on your investment.

[Mr. Morden]

Walker now up to third place:

Bush 16.8
Rubio 15.8
Walker 12.5
Paul 11.6
Romney 11.6
Christie 10.9

[Mr. Morden]

Romney retakes third place:

Bush 20.8
Rubio 15.8
Romney 13.4
Paul 11.6
Christie 11.1
Walker 10.5
Cruz 6.2
Perry 5.3

winning party:

Dems 59.9
GOP 44.8

Four years ago today:

Romney 22.5
Palin 19.3
Thune 12.7
Pawlenty 7.0
Huckabee 6.7
J. Bush 4.4
Gingrich 4.4
Christie 3.7

winning party:

Dems 56.2
GOP 41.8
other 3.5

[Mr. Morden]

Update:

Bush 20.0
Rubio 15.8
Romney 12.8
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.9
Walker 10.9
Cruz 6.2
Perry 5.3
Pence 4.3
Ryan 4.2
Huckabee 3.3
Jindal 3.3
Portman 3.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

GOP nomination

Romney 22.0
Palin 19.5
Thune 12.6
Huckabee 7.2
Pawlenty 7.0
J. Bush 5.5
Gingrich 4.5
Barbour 4.1
Daniels 3.9
Christie 3.6
Rubio 2.0
DeMint 1.4
Ryan 1.4
Paul 1.3
Johnson 1.2

[Mr. Morden]

Ftr, Romney just dropped down to a tie with Paul for 3rd place, so the top four is now:

Bush 20.0
Rubio 15.8
Paul 11.6
Romney 11.6

All the other betting sites also have Bush in the lead, though they differ somewhat after that.  For example, Ladbrokes has Christie and Rubio tied for second.  Paddypower has Paul and Rubio tied for second.

[Mr. Morden]

Update: Paul again alone in third place, but barely ahead of Romney/Christie/Walker.  Bush and Perry gain.

Bush 21.2
Rubio 15.4
Paul 11.4
Romney 11.1
Christie 10.9
Walker 10.5
Perry 8.4
Cruz 7.2
Ryan 4.0
Pence 3.4
Huckabee 3.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 22.7
Palin 20.3
Thune 12.0
Huckabee 9.0
Pawlenty 6.8
Gingrich 5.0
J. Bush 4.6
Barbour 4.0
Christie 3.2
Daniels 3.0
Rubio 1.9

[Mr. Morden]

On the news that Romney might be interested in running regardless of what other candidates do, Romney has moved back up into 3rd place for the GOP nom.  Cruz is gaining ground as well, moving ahead of Perry.  Clinton's share price on the Democratic side is higher than that of top four candidates on the GOP side *combined*.

Dems
Clinton 70.9
Warren 13.1
Biden 6.8
Gillibrand 3.8
O'Malley 3.4
Cuomo 2.8

GOP
Bush 21.2
Rubio 15.4
Romney 11.9
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.9
Walker 10.5
Cruz 8.8
Perry 8.1
Ryan 4.0
Huckabee 3.3

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

GOP nominee
Romney 23.0
Palin 19.5
Thune 13.0
Huckabee 7.8
Pawlenty 6.6
Daniels 5.0
Gingrich 5.0
Pence 4.4
Barbour 4.0
J. Bush 4.0
Christie 3.2
Rubio 2.0
Paul 1.4
Perry 1.4
Ryan 1.3

Eight years ago at this time on Tradesports:

Democrats
Clinton 53.3
Obama 19.5
Edwards 8.7
Gore 7.3
Bayh 2.6
Richardson 1.9
Vilsack 1.8
Kerry 1.4
Clark 1.1
Biden 0.9
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.6

Republicans
McCain 50.2
Romney 14.0
Giuliani 13.6
Huckabee 9.0
Gingrich 4.5
Brownback 1.8
Rice 1.4
Hagel 1.1
Cheney 0.8
J. Bush 0.7
Pataki 0.6
Allen 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
Owens 0.3

That's three elections in a row where, at this point in the cycle, Romney was in the top three.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush gains on news of latest moves, while Walker, Cruz, and Perry decline:

Bush 25.4
Rubio 14.5
Romney 11.6
Paul 11.1
Christie 10.5
Walker 8.8
Cruz 6.2
Perry 5.8
Ryan 4.0
Huckabee 3.3
Pence 3.3
Jindal 2.9

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 23.4
Palin 21.4
Thune 12.4
Huckabee 7.5
Daniels 6.5
Pawlenty 6.3
Gingrich 4.7
Pence 4.5
J. Bush 4.3
Barbour 4.0
Christie 2.9
Paul 2.1
Perry 2.0
Rubio 2.0

[Mr. Morden]

These betters are quite fickle.

Actually, I think they're fairly cautious and slow to react to events.  In an environment like this, where we're operating on limited information, a single news story that sheds light on a candidate's likelihood to run or how much support they have from big donors, could shift the probabilities quite a bit.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush and Walker gain as Romney sinks (now down to 6th place).

Democrats

Clinton 71.4
Warren 13.1
Biden 6.5
O'Malley 3.4
Gillibrand 3.1
Cuomo 2.5

Republicans

Bush 27.3
Rubio 13.4
Paul 11.9
Christie 10.5
Walker 10.5
Romney 9.5
Cruz 7.0
Perry 5.7
Ryan 3.8
Huckabee 3.3

Roughly 8 years ago at this time on Tradesports:

Democrats

Clinton 53.4
Obama 20.5
Edwards 10.4
Gore 7.0
Warner 3.0
Vilsack 2.1
Richardson 1.7
Kerry 1.7
Clark 1.0
Biden 0.8
Dodd 0.6

Republicans

McCain 51.2
Romney 15.4
Giuliani 14.7
Huckabee 7.1
Gingrich 4.5
Rice 1.6
Brownback 1.3
Hagel 1.0
Cheney 0.8
J. Bush 0.6
Pataki 0.6

[Mr. Morden]

Hillary is still below her 2008 high of  74.4 from November 6, 2007 on the Iowa markets.

Well, it's only December 2014 and she hasn't announced her candidacy yet.  It would be highly unusual for someone who hasn't even announced yet to be up around 75, outperforming someone who was considered a strong frontrunner two months before Iowa.