A year from today, who'll already have announced, one way or the other?

[Mr. Morden]

I believe election day 2014 comes on Nov. 4.  So a year from today, we might already have a couple of potential candidates declaring whether they will or will not run for president in the 2016 cycle.  In 2006, for example, Vilsack launched his 2008 campaign on November 9.  Gravel launched his campaign earlier in the year, Warner ruled himself out of contention in October 2006.

The 2012 cycle was slower to develop, but what about this time?  What will be the state of play in November 2014?

[Mr. Morden]

Everyone is going to wait for Hillary.

Santorum is going to wait for Clinton?  I don't think so.

[Mr. Morden]

On the GOP side, those potential candidates who don't have a day job, like Bolton, Carson, and Santorum, will probably announce first.  Then you'll get folks currently in office, like Jindal and Rubio.  Actually, the question of which Floridian ends up running (Bush or Rubio) and which Wisconsinite ends up running (Ryan or Walker) could complicate the timing of those announcements.  Though maybe whichever one ends up deferring will announce early on that they're staying out.  If, say, Bush decides that there's no clear path for him to the presidency, then I could potentially see him making a relatively early announcement that he's out, in order to clear the path for Rubio.

Walker, assuming that he's reelected, which of course isn't a certainty, will wait for Ryan to decide, and even then could end up announcing rather late, should he decide he wants to run.  It's bad form to win reelection, and then set up a presidential exploratory committee the following week.  And harder for governors to do that than members of Congress, since it's easier to be an absentee congressman than an absentee governor.

On the Dem. side, everyone will wait for Clinton.  Though she'll be strongly encouraged to give some sort of preliminary indication of her intentions immediately after the midterms.

[Mr. Morden]

Why are you guys so obsessed with 2016?

Ummm.....you've made 800 posts on the 2016 board in the last five months.  That's more than 5 posts a day.  Why are *you* so obsessed with 2016?

[Mr. Morden]

Do exploratory committees count? That might be easier/more fun since Mid-Nov 2014 is still very early

Yes, exploratory committees count.

[Mr. Morden]

Paul is in a weird spot, since he can't legally run for both president and senate at the same time (and the Kentucky presidential and senate primaries are on the same day).  So the timing of his announcement, one way or the other, will involve addressing that problem in whatever way he can.