Who will Clinton, Rubio, and Christie take as running mates?

[Mr. Morden]

Christie:
Susana Martinez
Chris Christie
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
John Kasich[/center

Christie's apparently a big enough man to fill both spots on the ticket.  Kind of like buying two plane tickets, because you're too big to fit in one seat.

[Mr. Morden]

Kaine seems like the most likely option for Clinton.  Schweitzer is another strong option if he runs for and wins that Senate seat in 2014, and can actually show that he's credible on national issues.  Booker will inevitably be included on the short list (assuming he wins that Senate seat in NJ, which appears all but certain), but I can't see him actually getting picked in the end.  Not sure who else might be in the mix.  Maybe one of those Western Senators who are under 60 (e.g., Bennet, Heinrich, Merkley....has any of them done anything of note to merit consideration?)?

Between Christie and Rubio, I assume that Christie would be more likely to pick a "rising star" type running mate, while Rubio would be more likely to pick someone with experience.  Rubio is younger, looks a *lot* younger, and will still be a one term Senator in 2016.  Christie will be in the back half of his second term as governor.  Christie's also more likely to make a "diversity" pick, whereas that's less relevant for Rubio.

So yeah, Martinez might be on Christie's radar, but maybe Ayotte as well.....more likely Ayotte as Christie's running mate than Rubio's, because she's another one term Senator.  However, I suspect she might take herself out of the veepstakes completely, because her seat is up in 2016.  Cathy McMorris Rodgers is another possibility, and I wouldn't rule out Jindal either.  Not sure if Rubio himself would even agree to be vetted as Christie's running mate, since Rubio's seat is up in 2016, and Florida law doesn't allow him to run for both.  Rubio will skip out of reelection if he can be the presidential nominee, but would he do the same for VP?  Or will he assume that Christie's going to lose to Clinton, stay in the Senate, and hope that the country will be sick of the Dems by 2020, so he can take another shot at the presidency then, when he's in his second Senate term?

For Rubio....I continue to think that Kasich is a very strong possibility for Rubio's running mate, assuming his reelection for governor in 2014.  Rubio, as a young one term Senator, will probably want something like an elder statesman as his running mate, but the GOP bench of elder statesman who would be plausible on a national ticket is actually rather thin at the moment.  Maybe Kasich is the closest thing there is.  Second term governor of a swing state who also has ample Washington experience from his nearly two decades in Congress.  Ticks all the relevant litmus test boxes, but isn't going to scare swing voters in the way the most extreme elements of the party might.

Portman's another option similar to Kasich (and is presumably more up on national issues than Kasich is, now that Kasich's been out of Congress for so long), but it remains to be seen whether the gay marriage issue might kill his chances, and there's the complicating factor that Portman's seat is also up in 2016.

And no, Rand Paul is not going to be considered for one second by either Christie or Rubio.

[Mr. Morden]

Addendum to my previous post: Thune is another one who could plausibly be on the short list for both Christie and Rubio.  But again, you run into the complication that his Senate seat is up in 2016, so he might want to stay in the Senate, and not agree to be vetted.  (Not sure on whether SD law allows him to run for both.)  So many of the GOP's bench of possibilities for a national ticket are in the Senate, in a seat that's up in 2016.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't really get why Clinton would pick a Schweitzer type... she already appeals to the folksier wing of the Democratic Party. She's a Clinton. Why not someone like Deval Patrick to bring out the African American vote?

She's a woman, whose career in elective office was launched in New York.  And the gender gap in both her favorables and hypothetical general election matchups is enormous.  So the logic of picking someone like Schweitzer would be to run with a manly man who has rural appeal.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton's never going to pick a running mate who's 65 or older, so Murray, Udall, Vilsack, and Warren seem like rather fanciful suggestions.

[Mr. Morden]

Mister Mets, I don't think the rumours about Tammy Baldwin are exactly rumours...

He meant the lesbian rumors about HRC.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned who I thought were the mostly likely VP candidates: what about Ted Strickland and/or Ed Rendell?

Rendell = 72 years old on election day 2016
Strickland = 75 years old on election day 2016