Australia - 7 September 2013

[Mr. Morden]

Live blog on the unfolding developments for those who are interested:

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/the-pulse-live/politics-live-june-26-2013-20130626-2ovyx.html

[Mr. Morden]

For those wondering, 7pm AEST is ~2hr 10 min from now.  Meanwhile, Kevin Rudd will apparently hold a press conference at 5pm AEST, which is ~10 min from now.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/kevin-rudd-to-challenge-pm-julia-gillard-for-labor-leadership-tomorrow-morning/story-e6frg6n6-1226670143790

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[Mr. Morden]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/rudd-to-take-on-pm-for-leadership/story-fnhqeu0x-1226670119125

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Other sources suggest that Rudd is accepting Gillard's challenge, to retire from politics if he loses.

Rudd is gaining on betting sites, and it looks like he's the betting favorite at the moment.

[Mr. Morden]

Rudd winning today won't automatically make him Prime Minister:

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/independents-still-crucial-to-vote-20130626-2owyc.html

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I'm a bit confused about that final outcome.  If the Independents refuse to back Abbott and they refuse to back Rudd, the election happens early, but who is PM in the interim?

[Mr. Morden]

I'm a bit confused about that final outcome.  If the Independents refuse to back Abbott and they refuse to back Rudd, the election happens early, but who is PM in the interim?

To follow up on this, what is the exact procedure for what happens if Rudd deposes Gillard?  Rudd goes to Bryce and says "I'm the ALP Leader now, so please declare me PM"?  He has to demonstrate the support of the majority of the House, but how is this achieved if the Parliament isn't in session?  Does Gillard continue on as PM until the House affirmatively demonstrates its backing of Rudd (or someone else)?

EDIT: Forget the part I crossed out.  I forgot that they're still in session tomorrow.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/the-pulse-live/politics-live-june-26-2013-20130626-2ovyx.html

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[Mr. Morden]

ABC saying that Swan, Conroy, Ludwig, and Emerson are all leaving Cabinet.

[Mr. Morden]

Anthony Albanese elected Deputy Leader.  Penny Wong elected leader of the Senate.

[Mr. Morden]

The GG is apparently consulting constitutional experts about what to do next... would she commission Rudd straight-up or require some written documentation of crossbench support before administering the oath?

All of the experts I've seen on Australian TV tonight are assuming that she'll end up naming Rudd as PM.  The clincher is that Gillard specifically asked her to name Rudd as PM.  To defy the advice of the outgoing PM on that, when it's less than obvious that anyone else has a majority in the House, well....it seems unlikely.  The path of least resistance is for Bryce to say "OK, the PM is resigning and she's asked me to name Rudd as PM in her place.  So he's PM for now."

Then tomorrow, the opposition moves for a vote of no confidence on Rudd.  If the vote goes against Rudd, then we get an election earlier than expected, but still with Rudd as caretaker PM until the election.  Abbott becoming PM before the election now seems very unlikely to me, given what I've been watching and reading over the last few hours.

[Mr. Morden]

AMR's online poll on the effect of replacing Abbott with Turnbull:

http://www.amr-australia.com.au/asset/cms/AMR_Federal_Poll_10.07.2013.pdf

2PP:
Labor 51%
Coalition 49%

2PP if Turnbull was Liberal leader:
Coalition 57%
Labor 43%

[Mr. Morden]

Sounds like it'll most likely be Shorten if he wants it.

The thing is though, it sounds like with the newly reformed procedure that the ALP has in place for selecting its leadership, it's very difficult to depose a sitting leader except immediately after an election loss.  So whoever they pick as leader now is very likely to still be leader going into the 2016 election.....but will then surely be dumped for someone new if the party loses.  So whoever announces that they want to become leader now is making a bet that the 2016 election will be winnable.  Otherwise, it's better to wait, and set yourself up for 2019.

[Mr. Morden]

Expectation is that Albanese will run against Shorten

With caucus supporting one and grassroots supporting another, apparently.

If Shorten becomes leader, I can't see him leading Labor to the 2016 election. I see him more as a Brendan Nelson style leader, i.e. you would find him in the dictionary under "stopgap leader".

The new rules mean that the new leader cant just be dumped though, right?

Under the new rules, the party leader can't be challenged* unless there's a petition signed by at least 60% of the parliamentary caucus.  And even then, I think you'd still need to go through the task of getting the votes of the broader membership across the country, so it wouldn't all be over within 24 hours, like under the old system.  Thus, whoever is named party leader right now is highly likely to serve in that role at least until the 2016 election.

* Can't be challenged during this Parliament, but if Labor loses the next election, then the leadership automatically goes up for a vote again at that time.

[Mr. Morden]

So I described the ALP leader election procedure earlier, but I am unclear on one thing: What is the order in which the votes take place?  The party's caucus in Parliament votes before or after the wider membership votes?  Would either side know the results of the other when the're voting?  For example, if the MPs knew how the nationwide membership voted, they'd surely just vote to ratify the decision of the wider membership, rather than produce a split, right?