will ryan be the 2016 gop nominee

[Mr. Morden]

He's "next in line" now, for sure. He'll likely have to fend off a very strong challenge from Christie in the next open election, though.

Two Catholics duking it out for the nomination? My God, what's this world come to?

Christie, Jindal, McDonnell, Rubio, Ryan, Santorum, and Jeb Bush are all Catholics, so if Obama wins this year, the chances are extraordinarily high that the 2016 GOP nominee will be a Catholic.  Biden, Cuomo, O'Malley, and Schweitzer are all Catholic as well, so if HRC doesn't run, there's a good chance the Dems will also nominate a Catholic.

[Mr. Morden]

I wouldn't underestimate Santorum. First, there's this whole "next in line" mentality. Second, he really performed very well this year, especially considering where he started.

The "next in line" thing works for the GOP when the candidate is someone who the party establishment can embrace.  Santorum may have come in 2nd this time, but he was more like a Huckabee candidate than a Romney candidate....not the type that the party establishment and big money donors are likely to embrace if there are other options like Christie, Ryan, and Rubio running.

[Mr. Morden]

I'll just post that picture from 538.com...

It makes no sense to compare Ryan to VP nominees from the 1960s or earlier, since the presidential nomination process was vastly different back then, the rationale for why veeps were picked was different, and the job of vice president was different.

Also, even if you do try to use past performance of losing VP candidates to assess Ryan's chances of being his party's nominee in 2016, you have to account for the fact that unlike some of those past VP candidates, Ryan is young, popular within the party, and would face no other obvious "next in line" candidate in 2016.  While it's too early to say whether Ryan would be the single frontrunner for the 2016 GOP nom., he'd almost certainly be one of the top leading contenders, unless he does terribly on the campaign trail in the coming months.