47-47 nationally doesn't really correspond well with what we're seeing at the state level. Either the state polls are wrong, or the race is something closer to Obama 50-Romney 47.
If you take out Gallup and Rasmussen, then the average national lead for Obama over Romney is about 4 points, which is right in line with the state polls:
http://electionate.com/2012/05/02/its-not-the-electoral-college-obama-just-leads/I think whatever discrepancy exists between the state and national polls can be explained by a combination of the timing of the polling and the different house effects of the polling firms polling nationally vs. statewide.
