Civil War in Syria

[Mr. Morden]

Obama is apparently going to ask Congress for authority for him to send arms to the Free Syrian Army:

link

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

So, is this conflict going to continue forever?  Can any side be said to have "momentum" right now?

[Mr. Morden]

Am I correct in my impression that things are starting to look rather bad for Assad?

[Mr. Morden]

World powers now trying to make a new diplomatic push:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/12/world/middleeast/new-diplomacy-seen-on-us-russian-efforts-to-end-syrian-civil-war.html?_r=0

[Mr. Morden]

USA Today has a graphic on the respective number of allied airstrikes in Iraq vs. Syria:

[Mr. Morden]

"US, Russia reach cease fire deal":

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russian-foreign-minister-lavrov-says-he-was-thinking-of-calling-it-a-day-on-syria-talks-with-the-united-states/2016/09/09/f37ca320-75ff-11e6-9781-49e591781754_story.html

[Mr. Morden]

So what's the deal with the Raqqa offensive?  Are the rebels going to knock out IS just so that they can in turn be knocked out by Assad?  Or is there some viable path forward for a Raqqa that is held by rebel groups in the long term (not IS or Assad)?

[Mr. Morden]

Trump team shelves Obama team’s plan to arm Kurds for an attack on Raqqa:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obamas-white-house-worked-for-months-on-a-plan-to-seize-raqqa-trumps-team-deemed-it-hopelessly-inadequate/2017/02/02/116310fa-e71a-11e6-80c2-30e57e57e05d_story.html

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-trump-ending-secret-cia-program-to-arm-syrian-rebels/

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[Mr. Morden]

US hits pro-Assad forces in response to their attack on SDF:

https://twitter.com/VeraMBergen/status/961370851265400833

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[Mr. Morden]

This looks so obviously stupid for Assad, and so obviously convenient for Western war hawks, that I am immediately suspicious and skeptical.

Not sure how it's stupid for Assad.  He's gotten away with chemical weapons attacks in the past, and he'll continue to do so in the future.

[Mr. Morden]

This looks so obviously stupid for Assad, and so obviously convenient for Western war hawks, that I am immediately suspicious and skeptical.

Not sure how it's stupid for Assad.  He's gotten away with chemical weapons attacks in the past, and he'll continue to do so in the future.

Well, I haven't been following the war super-closely, but from what I've been reading the Syrians-Russians-Iranians have it mostly won at this point. And Trump was just talking about pulling out last week.

So it Assad (or whoever calls the shots) is risking pulling the US back in in a big way, against the miniscule military benefit of a single act of terror. So it seems like a really dumb move.

Depends on what you mean by "mostly won".  Assad is winning, and not in any danger of losing any more territory.  Yet, it'll still take years for him to reclaim all the lost territory, if he ever manages to do it.

Last year's chemical weapons attack resulted in a single air strike from the US in response, and I'm not sure why this would be any different.  Trump already said that he wants to leave Syria anyway.  Maybe this'll help convince him to stay around a little longer.  But stay around in order to do what?  Attack ISIS more?  Assad would be fine with that.  Go to war against Assad?  I don't see any reason to believe that's going to happen.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-administration-wants-arab-allies-to-send-troops-to-syria-to-replace-us-forces-2018-04-16

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[Mr. Morden]

So what will happen to Syrian Kurdistan then?  It just remains autonomous?  Something like Iraqi Kurdistan in the 90s?

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/ewong/status/1181055817652420609