IA-TCJ Research: Bachmann far ahead of Pawlenty, Romney only 3rd

[Mr. Morden]

wait, wait, wait. is pawlenty in double digits? really? Incredible.

this poll may be crappy.

This particular poll is probably questionable.  However, Pawlenty in double digits wouldn't be that surprising.  He and Bachmann (and maybe Paul?  I forget) are the only candidates running ads in Iowa, and the most recent Iowa polls from other pollsters had Pawlenty at 7%, 8%, and 9%:

link

And that was before most of his ads ran.  10% or a bit more for T-Paw would hardly be shocking.

[Mr. Morden]

If Romney continues to have an enormous $ advantage, then he might as well throw enough resources at Iowa for 2nd place.

Btw, I just looked up the Iowa polls from Summer 2007:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008R/polls.php?fips=19

It's remarkable how many of those polls were from fake pollsters.

Research 2000 & Strategic Vision: Subsequently revealed to be fake pollsters.
ARG, Zogby, & Insider Advantage: Perhaps not technically fake pollsters, but they might as well be.

[Mr. Morden]

It's not a problem, since he's skipping Iowa. Remember that McCain got something like 5% in the state.

For the record, Romney has not said that he's skipping Iowa.  He's only skipping the straw poll.

But he doesn't seem to be playing for first place there.  Maybe 2nd or 3rd place.  He'll probably wage a low key campaign there for a few months, and then make a decision in December as to whether it's worth continuing.