My prediction is at least 65-35 passage, if not 70-30 as a stand-alone bill.
65-35? that's 7 out of 42 GOP Senators....no way. every GOP member knows whoever votes for repeal of DADT will be primaried. at most, you'll have 2-3 GOP defections. The GOP is simply trying to stall until January, when there wont be a snow ball's chance of this passing. They should be honest and state their opposition.
but, again, probably only half of the GOP Senators are social conservatives at heart.
1. Collins
2. Snowe
3. Brown
4. Murkowski
5. Graham
6. Hatch
7. Paul
That's at least 7.
Paul won't actually be sworn in until January though, right?
Sorry, I was thinking next session, but they'd need more than 7 by that point. But that list was just the first 7 that came to my mind. I think there are more out there, those are just some that I'm nearly positive would vote for it.
Keep in ming next session it would require it to pass in the House again, and that sure as hell isn't going to happen.
There's enough moderates in the House, for sure for it to pass.
Would the House leadership bring it to the floor next Congress?
No. Boehner would never let it come to the floor in the first place. That's why the only way it's going to be repealed any time soon is if they bring up a standalone version in the lame duck session (which means within the next two weeks), and a couple of the Senators who blocked it this time (like Snowe, Brown, and Manchin) switch their votes.
